Global tourism service production has a fragile structure and is expressed as one of the vulnerable sectors due to possible cyclical developments in this aspect. There are studies in the literature that examine how and in what periods the total tourism demand of terrorism, the short-term and long-term effects and ineffectiveness of shocks, the religious, ethnic and geographical spread of the effects of shocks, and the effects of continuous shocks. This study aimed to focus on the flexibility of the average spending tendencies of tourists to terrorist attacks and real exchange rate changes. For this purpose, using the annual data for the period 1980-2019, the effect of terrorist attacks and the real exchange rate on the average expenditures of tourists coming to Turkey was investigated with the help of the Maki (2012) multiple structural break cointegration test. Increases in terrorist attacks have a weak and negative effect on average spending, while shocks in real exchange rates have a negative and strong effect. It should be stated that the qualitative change of tourists, which may come due to the change in purchasing power for the periods when the real exchange rate increases, may increase the sensitivity to terrorism.
Adnan Hye, Q. M., & Ali Khan, R. E. (2013). Tourism-led growth hypothesis: A case study of Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(4), 303-313.
Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29-38.
Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739.
Araña, J. E., & León, C. J. (2008). The impact of terrorism on tourism demand. Annals of tourism research, 35(2), 299-315.
Baggio, R., & Sainaghi, R. (2011). Complex and chaotic tourism systems: towards a quantitative approach. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied economics, 34(7), 877-884.
Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Wanke, P. (2016). Energy production in Brazil: Empirical facts based on persistence, seasonality and breaks. Energy Economics, 54, 88-95.
Bassil, C. (2014). The effect of terrorism on tourism demand in the Middle East. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 20(4), 669-684.
Bramwell, B., & Rawding, L. (1996). Tourism marketing images of industrial cities. Annals of Tourism research, 23(1), 201-221.
Carrion Silvestre, J. L., & Sansó, A. (2006). Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-646.
Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754-1792.
Causevic, S., & Lynch, P. (2013). Political (in) stability and its influence on tourism development. Tourism Management, 34, 145-157.
Chon, K. S. (1991). Tourism destination image modification process: Marketing implications. Tourism management, 12(1), 68-72.
Chu, F. L. (2008). A fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand. Tourism Management, 29(1), 79-88.
Coca-Stefaniak, A., & Morrison, A. M. (2018). City tourism destinations and terrorism–a worrying trend for now, but could it get worse?. International Journal of Tourism Cities.
Corbet, S., O’Connell, J. F., Efthymiou, M., Guiomard, C., & Lucey, B. (2019). The impact of terrorism on European tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 75, 1-17.
Cortés-Jiménez, I., & Pulina, M. (2006). A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy.
Crenshaw, M. (1981). The causes of terrorism. Comparative politics, 13(4), 379-399.
Çelik, N., & Karaçuka, M. (2017). Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Ege Academic Review, 17(3).
Dann, G. M. (1996). Tourists' images of a destination-an alternative analysis. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 5(1-2), 41-55.
Drakos, K., & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621-641.
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism economics, 10(3), 305-316.
Echtner, C. M., & Ritchie, J. B. (1993). The measurement of destination image: An empirical assessment. Journal of travel research, 31(4), 3-13.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813–836.
Emsen, Ö.S. ve Değer, M.K. (2004) “Turizm Üzerine Terörizmin Etkileri: 1984-2001 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 4(7): 67-83.
Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1), 49-58.
Fleischer, A., & Buccola, S. (2002). War, terror, and the tourism market in Israel. Applied Economics, 34(11), 1335-1343.
Gazopoulou, H. (2011) “Assessing The Impact of Terrorism on Travel Activity in Grece”, Working Papers from Bank of Greece, 127.
Ghali, M. A. (1976). Tourism and economic growth: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24(3), 527-538.
Gil-Alana, L. A., Mervar, A., & Payne, J. E. (2015). Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: Evidence from the Adriatic region. Applied Economics, 47(46), 4901-4917.
Gil-Alana, L. A., Mudida, R., & de Gracia, F. P. (2014). Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism series. Annals of Tourism Research, 46, 89-101.
Göçer, İ., & Peker, O. (2014). Yabancı doğrudan yatırımların istihdam üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan örneğinde çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 107-123.
Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., & Peker, O. (2013). Kredi hacmi artışının cari açığa etkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (18), 1-17.
Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri, (Çeviri: Şenesen, Ü. ve Günlük Şenesen, G., 5. Baskı). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
Gunduz*, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499-504.
Hamadeh, M., & Bassil, C. (2017). Terrorism, war, and volatility in tourist arrivals: The case of Lebanon. Tourism Analysis, 22(4), 537-550.
Hansen, P. R. (2003). Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Journal of Econometrics, 114(2), 261-295.
Hatemi-j, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
Horner, S., & Swarbrooke, J. (2004). International cases in tourism management. Routledge.
Huan, T. C., Beaman, J., & Shelby, L. (2004). No-escape natural disaster: Mitigating impacts on tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(2), 255-273.
Hystad, P. W., & Keller, P. C. (2008). Towards a destination tourism disaster management framework: Long-term lessons from a forest fire disaster. Tourism management, 29(1), 151-162.
İltaş, Y., & Üçler, G. (2019). Kurumsal kalite ve finansal riskin menkul kıymetler borsası üzerine etkisi: Türkiye için ampirik bir inceleme. Sosyoekonomi, 27(41), 113-128.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20.
Khalil, S., Kakar, M. K., & Malik, A. (2007). Role of tourism in economic growth: Empirical evidence from Pakistan economy [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 985-995.
Khazai, B., Mahdavian, F., & Platt, S. (2018). Tourism Recovery Scorecard (TOURS)–Benchmarking and monitoring progress on disaster recovery in tourism destinations. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 27, 75-84.
Kılıçlar, A., Uşaklı, A., & Tayfun, A. (2018). Terrorism prevention in tourism destinations: Security forces vs. civil authority perspectives. Journal of destination marketing & management, 8, 232-246.
Krakover, S. (2005). Estimating the effect of atrocious events on the flow of tourists to Israel. Horror and human tragedy revisited: The management of sites of atrocities for tourism, 183-194.
Kreishan, F. M. (2010). Tourism and economic growth: The case of Jordan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 15(2), 63-68.
LaFree, G., & Dugan, L. (2007). Introducing the global terrorism database. Terrorism and political violence, 19(2), 181-204.
Lanouar, C., & Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management, 70, 404-418.
Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2009). Asian financial crisis, avian flu and terrorist threats: are shocks to Malaysian tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), 301-321.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin, 33(4), 1-15.
Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404-417.
Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
Lutz, B. J., & Lutz, J. M. (2018). Terrorism and tourism in theCaribbean: a regional analysis.
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https://www.start.umd.edu.tr, Erişim Tarihi: 27 Kasım 2021.
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Terör Saldırılarının Gelen Turistlerin Ortalama Harcamalarına Etkisi
Yıl 2022,
30. Yıl Özel Sayısı, 29 - 42, 28.07.2022
Global turizm hizmeti üretimi, kırılgan bir yapıya sahiptir ve bu yönüyle olası konjokturel gelişmelere bağlı savunmasız sektörden biri olarak ifade edilmektedir. Terörizmin, toplam turizm talebini nasıl ve hangi periodlarda etkilediğini araştıran çalışmalar, şokların kısa dönem ve uzun dönemdeki etkisi ile uzun dönemdeki etkisizliğini araştıranlar, şokların etkilerinin dini, etnik ve coğrafi yayılımını inceleyenler ve süreklilik arz eden şokların etkilerini inceleyenler olarak literatürde çok sayıda çalışma mevcuttur. Bu çalışma turizm talebinin ötesinde gelen turistlerin ortalama harcama eğilimlerinin terör saldırılarına ve reel döviz kuru değişimlerine esnekliği üzerinde durmayı amaçlamıştır. Terör saldırılarında meydana gelen artışlar ortalama harcama üzerinde negatif ve zayıf etkiye sahipken, reel döviz kurunda meydana gelen şoklar negatif ve güçlü etkiye sahiptir. Bu noktadan hareketle Türkiye’de terör eylemlerinin turizm sektörü üzerindeki etkisi eylemlerin yıllardır süregelmesi ve itibarsız olması ile turizm bölgelerinden uzakta gerçekleşmesi sebebiyle etkisizdir sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır. Reel döviz kurunun arttığı dönemler için satın alma gücünün değişimine bağlı olarak gelebilecek olan turistlerin niteliksel kaymasının turistlerin teröre olan hassasiyetini arttırabileceği ifade edilmelidir.
Adnan Hye, Q. M., & Ali Khan, R. E. (2013). Tourism-led growth hypothesis: A case study of Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 18(4), 303-313.
Agiomirgianakis, G., Serenis, D., & Tsounis, N. (2017). Effective timing of tourism policy: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 60, 29-38.
Arai, Y., & Kurozumi, E. (2007). Testing for the null hypothesis of cointegration with a structural break. Econometric Reviews, 26(6), 705-739.
Araña, J. E., & León, C. J. (2008). The impact of terrorism on tourism demand. Annals of tourism research, 35(2), 299-315.
Baggio, R., & Sainaghi, R. (2011). Complex and chaotic tourism systems: towards a quantitative approach. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2002). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: the Spanish case. Applied economics, 34(7), 877-884.
Barros, C. P., Gil-Alana, L. A., & Wanke, P. (2016). Energy production in Brazil: Empirical facts based on persistence, seasonality and breaks. Energy Economics, 54, 88-95.
Bassil, C. (2014). The effect of terrorism on tourism demand in the Middle East. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 20(4), 669-684.
Bramwell, B., & Rawding, L. (1996). Tourism marketing images of industrial cities. Annals of Tourism research, 23(1), 201-221.
Carrion Silvestre, J. L., & Sansó, A. (2006). Testing the null of cointegration with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-646.
Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., Kim, D., & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. Econometric Theory, 25(6), 1754-1792.
Causevic, S., & Lynch, P. (2013). Political (in) stability and its influence on tourism development. Tourism Management, 34, 145-157.
Chon, K. S. (1991). Tourism destination image modification process: Marketing implications. Tourism management, 12(1), 68-72.
Chu, F. L. (2008). A fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average approach to forecasting tourism demand. Tourism Management, 29(1), 79-88.
Coca-Stefaniak, A., & Morrison, A. M. (2018). City tourism destinations and terrorism–a worrying trend for now, but could it get worse?. International Journal of Tourism Cities.
Corbet, S., O’Connell, J. F., Efthymiou, M., Guiomard, C., & Lucey, B. (2019). The impact of terrorism on European tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 75, 1-17.
Cortés-Jiménez, I., & Pulina, M. (2006). A further step into the ELGH and TLGH for Spain and Italy.
Crenshaw, M. (1981). The causes of terrorism. Comparative politics, 13(4), 379-399.
Çelik, N., & Karaçuka, M. (2017). Terör Saldırılarının Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Öznelinde Ampirik Bir Analiz. Ege Academic Review, 17(3).
Dann, G. M. (1996). Tourists' images of a destination-an alternative analysis. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 5(1-2), 41-55.
Drakos, K., & Kutan, A. M. (2003). Regional effects of terrorism on tourism in three Mediterranean countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 47(5), 621-641.
Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a long-run economic growth factor: an empirical investigation for Greece using causality analysis. Tourism economics, 10(3), 305-316.
Echtner, C. M., & Ritchie, J. B. (1993). The measurement of destination image: An empirical assessment. Journal of travel research, 31(4), 3-13.
Elliott, G., Rothenberg, T. J., & Stock, J. H. (1996). Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root. Econometrica, 64(4), 813–836.
Emsen, Ö.S. ve Değer, M.K. (2004) “Turizm Üzerine Terörizmin Etkileri: 1984-2001 Türkiye Deneyimi”, Akdeniz İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 4(7): 67-83.
Enders, W., & Sandler, T. (1991). Causality between transnational terrorism and tourism: The case of Spain. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 14(1), 49-58.
Fleischer, A., & Buccola, S. (2002). War, terror, and the tourism market in Israel. Applied Economics, 34(11), 1335-1343.
Gazopoulou, H. (2011) “Assessing The Impact of Terrorism on Travel Activity in Grece”, Working Papers from Bank of Greece, 127.
Ghali, M. A. (1976). Tourism and economic growth: an empirical study. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 24(3), 527-538.
Gil-Alana, L. A., Mervar, A., & Payne, J. E. (2015). Measuring persistence in Croatian tourism: Evidence from the Adriatic region. Applied Economics, 47(46), 4901-4917.
Gil-Alana, L. A., Mudida, R., & de Gracia, F. P. (2014). Persistence, long memory and seasonality in Kenyan tourism series. Annals of Tourism Research, 46, 89-101.
Göçer, İ., & Peker, O. (2014). Yabancı doğrudan yatırımların istihdam üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan örneğinde çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 107-123.
Göçer, İ., Mercan, M., & Peker, O. (2013). Kredi hacmi artışının cari açığa etkisi: Çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme analizi. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (18), 1-17.
Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D. C. (2012). Temel Ekonometri, (Çeviri: Şenesen, Ü. ve Günlük Şenesen, G., 5. Baskı). Literatür Yayıncılık, İstanbul.
Gunduz*, L., & Hatemi-J, A. (2005). Is the tourism-led growth hypothesis valid for Turkey?. Applied Economics Letters, 12(8), 499-504.
Hamadeh, M., & Bassil, C. (2017). Terrorism, war, and volatility in tourist arrivals: The case of Lebanon. Tourism Analysis, 22(4), 537-550.
Hansen, P. R. (2003). Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. Journal of Econometrics, 114(2), 261-295.
Hatemi-j, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497-505.
Horner, S., & Swarbrooke, J. (2004). International cases in tourism management. Routledge.
Huan, T. C., Beaman, J., & Shelby, L. (2004). No-escape natural disaster: Mitigating impacts on tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 31(2), 255-273.
Hystad, P. W., & Keller, P. C. (2008). Towards a destination tourism disaster management framework: Long-term lessons from a forest fire disaster. Tourism management, 29(1), 151-162.
İltaş, Y., & Üçler, G. (2019). Kurumsal kalite ve finansal riskin menkul kıymetler borsası üzerine etkisi: Türkiye için ampirik bir inceleme. Sosyoekonomi, 27(41), 113-128.
Katircioglu, S. T. (2009). Revisiting the tourism-led-growth hypothesis for Turkey using the bounds test and Johansen approach for cointegration. Tourism Management, 30(1), 17-20.
Khalil, S., Kakar, M. K., & Malik, A. (2007). Role of tourism in economic growth: Empirical evidence from Pakistan economy [with comments]. The Pakistan Development Review, 985-995.
Khazai, B., Mahdavian, F., & Platt, S. (2018). Tourism Recovery Scorecard (TOURS)–Benchmarking and monitoring progress on disaster recovery in tourism destinations. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 27, 75-84.
Kılıçlar, A., Uşaklı, A., & Tayfun, A. (2018). Terrorism prevention in tourism destinations: Security forces vs. civil authority perspectives. Journal of destination marketing & management, 8, 232-246.
Krakover, S. (2005). Estimating the effect of atrocious events on the flow of tourists to Israel. Horror and human tragedy revisited: The management of sites of atrocities for tourism, 183-194.
Kreishan, F. M. (2010). Tourism and economic growth: The case of Jordan. European Journal of Social Sciences, 15(2), 63-68.
LaFree, G., & Dugan, L. (2007). Introducing the global terrorism database. Terrorism and political violence, 19(2), 181-204.
Lanouar, C., & Goaied, M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management, 70, 404-418.
Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2009). Asian financial crisis, avian flu and terrorist threats: are shocks to Malaysian tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 14(3), 301-321.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin, 33(4), 1-15.
Liu, A., & Pratt, S. (2017). Tourism's vulnerability and resilience to terrorism. Tourism Management, 60, 404-417.
Lumsdaine, R. L., & Papell, D. H. (1997). Multiple trend breaks and the unit-root hypothesis. Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212-218.
Lutz, B. J., & Lutz, J. M. (2018). Terrorism and tourism in theCaribbean: a regional analysis.
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