Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study

Beren Gürsoy Yılmaz; Ömer Faruk Yılmaz; Selin Soner Kara

doi:10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440

Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study

Abstract

This paper investigates the resilient multi-period, multi-stage supply chain (SC) network design problem under demand and raw material quality uncertainty within a just-in-time (JIT) distribution setting, based on a real case study. The proposed approach models a four-stage SC comprising suppliers, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers, and develops two-stage stochastic programming and robust optimization models to enhance resilience. Unlike existing studies, this research uniquely integrates JIT distribution with the simultaneous consideration of demand and raw material quality uncertainties, providing practical, data-driven insights for decision-makers. Computational results show that the proposed models produce applicable solutions for real-world implementation. Across all models, high-quality raw materials are preferred 54% in the deterministic model, 55% on average in 30 of 40 stochastic scenarios, and 52% in the robust model, even under worst-case conditions. These findings indicate that prioritizing high-quality raw materials, despite higher purchasing costs, is crucial for maintaining JIT principles and ensuring on-time deliveries. Furthermore, the results highlight that the strategic location of distributors is critical to meeting retailers’ demand at the right time and in the right quantity.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Operations Research İn Mathematics

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Beren Gürsoy Yılmaz ^*
0000-0001-7493-0639
Türkiye

Ömer Faruk Yılmaz
0000-0002-6202-4011
Türkiye

Selin Soner Kara
0000-0002-0894-0772
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 29, 2026

Submission Date

July 16, 2025

Acceptance Date

August 19, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 75 Number: 1

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA48HB87FP

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Gürsoy Yılmaz, B., Yılmaz, Ö. F., & Soner Kara, S. (2026). Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics, 75(1), 89-112. https://doi.org/10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440

AMA

1.Gürsoy Yılmaz B, Yılmaz ÖF, Soner Kara S. Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study. Commun. Fac. Sci. Univ. Ank. Ser. A1 Math. Stat. 2026;75(1):89-112. doi:10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440

Chicago

Gürsoy Yılmaz, Beren, Ömer Faruk Yılmaz, and Selin Soner Kara. 2026. “Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study”. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics 75 (1): 89-112. https://doi.org/10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440.

EndNote

Gürsoy Yılmaz B, Yılmaz ÖF, Soner Kara S (March 1, 2026) Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics 75 1 89–112.

IEEE

[1]B. Gürsoy Yılmaz, Ö. F. Yılmaz, and S. Soner Kara, “Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study”, Commun. Fac. Sci. Univ. Ank. Ser. A1 Math. Stat., vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 89–112, Mar. 2026, doi: 10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440.

ISNAD

Gürsoy Yılmaz, Beren - Yılmaz, Ömer Faruk - Soner Kara, Selin. “Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study”. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics 75/1 (March 1, 2026): 89-112. https://doi.org/10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440.

JAMA

1.Gürsoy Yılmaz B, Yılmaz ÖF, Soner Kara S. Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study. Commun. Fac. Sci. Univ. Ank. Ser. A1 Math. Stat. 2026;75:89–112.

MLA

Gürsoy Yılmaz, Beren, et al. “Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study”. Communications Faculty of Sciences University of Ankara Series A1 Mathematics and Statistics, vol. 75, no. 1, Mar. 2026, pp. 89-112, doi:10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440.

Vancouver

1.Beren Gürsoy Yılmaz, Ömer Faruk Yılmaz, Selin Soner Kara. Two-Stage Stochastic Programming and Robust Optimization Models for Resilient Supply Chain Network Design under Uncertainty: A Real Case Study. Commun. Fac. Sci. Univ. Ank. Ser. A1 Math. Stat. 2026 Mar. 1;75(1):89-112. doi:10.31801/cfsuasmas.1743440