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Otomasyonun Yükselişi. Kitlesel İşsizlik mi? Yeni İstihdam mı? İşgücü Piyasasına Etkisine Dair Bir Değerlendirme

Year 2022, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 55 - 76, 01.08.2022

Abstract

Teknolojinin gelişmesi işgücü piyasasını çeşitli şekillerde etkilemektedir. Bu etkilerin başında işsizlik sorunu gelmektedir. Sanayi devrimi dönemindeki işsizlik sorunu günümüzde derinleşerek varlığını sürdürmektedir. Bu noktada endüstri 4.0 ile üretim nesnelerin internetiyle birleşerek işgücü piyasasını nasıl etkileyeceği, emeğin makinelerle ikame edilme olasılığı, işgücünün dönüşerek yeni üretim sistemlerine adaptasyonu noktasında çeşitli tartışmalar bulunmaktadır.
Bu çalışmada, teknolojik dönüşümün istihdama dair nasıl bir yansıması olduğu literatür araştırması yöntemi ile ele alınacaktır. Çalışmada “Otomasyonun artmasının işgücü piyasasına etkileri nelerdir?” sorusuna cevap aranmaktadır. Literatür taramasında “automation and unemployment”, “automation and employment” ve ”the future of work” anahtar kelimeleri kullanılmıştır. Akademik veri tabanları kullanılarak 1998-2022 tarihleri arasında yapılan çalışmalar incelenmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre otomasyonun gelişmesiyle bazı mesleklerin kaybolacağı ve onların yerine yeni mesleklerin ortaya çıkması beklenmektedir. Ayrıca bu süreç sektörlerin dönüşümü, istihdam kutuplaşması ve gelir dağılımı başta olmak üzere işgücü piyasasını birçok yönden değiştireceği görülmektedir. Bu çalışma ile otomasyonlaşmanın işgücü piyasasına yansımasına yönelik farkındalık oluşturulması amaçlanmıştır.

References

  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). “The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment”. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1488-1542.
  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). “Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets”. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188-2244.
  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2021). “Tasks, automation, and the rise in us wage inequality “. National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Aghion, P., Antonin, C., Bunel, S., & Jaravel, X. (2021). “The Direct and Indirect Effects of Automation on Employment: A Survey of the Recent Literature.” Unpublished manuscript.
  • Atack, J., Bateman, F., & Margo, R. A. (2008). Steam power, establishment size, and labor productivity growth in nineteenth century American manufacturing. Explorations in Economic History, 45(2), 185-198.
  • Autor, D. (2010). “The polarization of job opportunities in the US labor market: Implications for employment and earnings”. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Project, 6, 11-19.
  • Berg, A., Buffie, E. F., & Zanna, L. F. (2018). “Should we fear the robot revolution?(The correct answer is yes).” Journal of Monetary Economics, 97, 117-148.
  • Beverelli, C., Rubínová, S., Stolzenburg, V., & Woessner, N. (2019). “Revisiting the role of trade and automation in US labor market polarization.” Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS, 60.
  • Card, D., & Nelson, C. (2019). “How automation and digital disruption are shaping the workforce of the future”. Strategic HR Review. 18(6), 242-245. doi: 10.1108/SHR-08-2019-0067
  • Cengiz, S., & Şahin, A. (2020). “Teknolojik İlerlemenin İstihdam Yaratmadaki Rolü ve Önemi: Türkiye Örneği.” Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi, 1(45), 160-172.
  • Chiacchio, F., Petropoulos, G. & Pichler, D. (2018). “The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: A local labor market approach.” Bruegel Working paper, 2.
  • D. Autor, F. Levy, Murnane R.J. (2003). “The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration”. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333. doi: 10.1162/003355303322552801
  • David, H., & Dorn, D. (2013). “The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market”. American economic review, 103(5), 1553-97
  • Donald R. Davis, (1998). “Technology, Unemployment, and Relative Wages in a Global Economy,” European Economic Review, 42(9), 1613-1633.
  • Drucker, P. (2007). The practice of management. London: Routledge
  • Dworschak, B., & Zaiser, H. (2014). “Competences for cyber-physical systems in manufacturing–first findings and scenarios”. Procedia Cirp, 25, 345-350.
  • Fitsilis, P., Tsoutsa, P., & Gerogiannis, V. (2018). “Industry 4.0: Required personnel competences”. Internatıonal Scıentıfıc Journal "Industry 4.0", 3(3), 130-133.
  • Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M. A. (2017), “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 114: 254–280.
  • http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (Erişim: 10. Kasım 2021)
  • Faia, E., Laffitte, S., Mayer, M., & Ottaviano, G. (2021). “On the Employment Consequences of Automation and Offshoring: A Labor Market Sorting View”. In Robots and AI Routledge, 82-122
  • Hunt, J., & Nunn, R. (2019). “Is Employment Polarization Informative About Wage Inequality and Is Employment Really Polarizing?” National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007). “Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain”. The review of economics and statistics, 89(1), 118-133
  • Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salomons, A. (2009). ‘Job polarization in Europe’, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 99, 58–63.
  • Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2018). “Robots at work”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 753-768 Internet: https://www.christs.cam.ac.uk/william-lee (Erişim: 02 Ağustos 2021)
  • Jaimovich, N., & Siu, H. E. (2012). “Job polarization and jobless recoveries” (No. w18334). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Jerbashian, V. (2019). Automation and job polarization: On the decline of middling occupations in Europe. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(5), 1095-1116.
  • Johnson, Sara S. (2020). “The Future of Work”. American Journal of Health Promotion. 34(7), 809–812.
  • Karabulut, K., Özdemir, D., & Shahinpour, A. (2019). “Seçilmiş Ülkelerde Bilişim ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi.” Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 33(4).
  • Kergroach, S. (2017). “Industry 4.0: New challenges and opportunities for the labour market”. Форсайт, 11(4).
  • Kim, Y. J., Kim, K., & Lee, S. (2017). “The Rise of Technological Unemployment and Its Implications on the Future Macroeconomic Landscape,” Futures, 87, 1-9
  • Kurer, T., & Palier, B. (2019). “Shrinking and shouting: the political revolt of the declining middle in times of employment polarization.” Research & Politics, 6(1),
  • Kurt, R. (2019). “Industry 4.0 in terms of industrial relations and its impacts on labour life.” Procedia computer science, 158, 590-601.
  • Kolade, O., & Owoseni, A.(2020). ” Employment 4.0: The Work of the Future and the Future of Work.” Available at SSRN : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4073516
  • Kornelakis, A., Benassi, C., Grimshaw, D., & Miozzo, M. (2022). “Robots at the Gates? Robotic Process Automation, Skills and Institutions in Knowledge-Intensive Business Services.”
  • Maillard, J. (2021). “Automation, Offshoring and Employment Distribution in Western Europe.”
  • Maloney, W. F., & Molina, C. (2019). “Is Automation Labor-Displacing in the Developing Countries, Too? Robots, Polarization, and Jobs.”
  • Mann, K., & Püttmann, L. (2018). “Benign effects of automation: New evidence from patent texts”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2959584
  • McKinsey & Company (2020, 13 Ocak). İşimizin Geleceği: Dijital Çağda Türkiye’nin Yetenek Dönüşümü. McKinsey & Company. Erişim adresi: https://mck.co/38A47M8
  • Milojevic, I., & Davidow, S. (2018). “The futures of work”. TEXT Specia, 52, 1-12
  • Mokyr, J., & Strotz, RH (1998). “The Second İndustrial Revolution, 1870-1914”. Storia dell'ekonomia Mondiale , 1-16
  • O’Rourke, K. H., Rahman, A. S., & Taylor, A. M. (2013). “Luddites, The İndustrial Revolution, And The Demographic Transition”. Journal of Economic Growth, 18(4), 373-409. doi: 10.1007/s10887-013-9096-y
  • OECD, (2021) https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm (Erişim: 3 Ağustos 2021)
  • Pecchi, L., & Piga, G. (Eds.). (2010). “Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren”. ABD: Mit Press.
  • Parolin, Z. (2019). Automation and occupational wage trends. OECD
  • Pi, J., & Zhang P. (2018) “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries,” International Review of Economics ve Finance, 56, 347-362
  • Prisecaru, P. (2017). “The challenges of the industry 4.0”. Global Economic Observer, 5(1), 66-72
  • Rainnie, A., & Dean, M. (2020). “Industry 4.0 and the future of quality work in the global digital economy”. Labour & Industry: a journal of the social and economic relations of work, 30(1), 16-33.
  • Rübmann, M., Lorenz, M., Gerbert, P., Waldner, M., Justus, J., Engel, P., & Harnisch, M. (2015). “Industry 4.0: The future of productivity and growth in manufacturing industries”. Boston Consulting Group, 9(1), 54-89.
  • Schlogl, L., & Sumner, A. (2020). “Automation and structural transformation in developing countries. In Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation” . Palgrave Pivot, Cham. 51-78.
  • Schlegel, D., & Kraus, P. (2021). “Skills and competencies for digital transformation–a critical analysis in the context of robotic process automation.” International Journal of Organizational Analysis.
  • Schmidpeter, B., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2021). “Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training.” European Economic Review, 137
  • Valletta, R., & Barlow, N. (2018). The prime-age workforce and labor market polarization. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, 1-5.
  • Yasım, Y. K. (2020). “Endüstri 4.0: Çalışmanın Geleceği “. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi , 9 (1) , 47-64 .
  • Weber, E. (2016). “Industry 4.0: Job-producer or Employment-destroyer?” (No. 2/2016). Aktuelle Berichte, Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/161710
  • Weyer, S., Schmitt, M., Ohmer, M., & Gorecky, D. (2015). “Towards Industry 4.0-Standardization as the crucial challenge for highly modular, multi-vendor production systems”. Ifac-Papersonline, 48(3), 579-584
  • World Economic Forum (2018), The future of jobs report 2018, Web: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2020.pdf (Erişim: 15 Ekim 2020).
  • World Employment and Social Outlook 2021: The role of digital labour platforms in transforming the world of work, International Labour Office – Geneva: ILO, 2021

The Rise of Automation. Mass Unemployment? New Employment? An Evaluation of the Impact on the Labor Market

Year 2022, Volume: 13 Issue: 2, 55 - 76, 01.08.2022

Abstract

The development of technology affects the labor market in various ways. The first of these effects is the problem of unemployment. The problem of unemployment in the industrial revolution period continues to exist by deepening today. At this point, there are various discussions about how industry 4.0 and production will combine with the internet of things to affect the labor market, the possibility of replacing labor with machines, and the adaptation of the workforce to new production systems by transformation.
In this study, the reflection of technological transformation on employment will be discussed with the literature research method. In the study, “What are the effects of the increase in automation on the labor market?” search for an answer to the question. The keywords “automation and unemployment”, “automation and employment” and “the future of work” were used in the literature review. Studies conducted between 1998-2022 were analyzed using academic databases. According to the results of the research, it is expected that some professions will disappear with the development of automation and new professions will emerge in their place. In addition, it is seen that this process will change the labor market in many ways, especially the transformation of sectors, employment polarization and income distribution. With this study, it is aimed to raise awareness about the reflection of automation on the labor market.

References

  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). “The race between man and machine: Implications of technology for growth, factor shares, and employment”. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1488-1542.
  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2020). “Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets”. Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), 2188-2244.
  • Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2021). “Tasks, automation, and the rise in us wage inequality “. National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Aghion, P., Antonin, C., Bunel, S., & Jaravel, X. (2021). “The Direct and Indirect Effects of Automation on Employment: A Survey of the Recent Literature.” Unpublished manuscript.
  • Atack, J., Bateman, F., & Margo, R. A. (2008). Steam power, establishment size, and labor productivity growth in nineteenth century American manufacturing. Explorations in Economic History, 45(2), 185-198.
  • Autor, D. (2010). “The polarization of job opportunities in the US labor market: Implications for employment and earnings”. Center for American Progress and The Hamilton Project, 6, 11-19.
  • Berg, A., Buffie, E. F., & Zanna, L. F. (2018). “Should we fear the robot revolution?(The correct answer is yes).” Journal of Monetary Economics, 97, 117-148.
  • Beverelli, C., Rubínová, S., Stolzenburg, V., & Woessner, N. (2019). “Revisiting the role of trade and automation in US labor market polarization.” Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS, 60.
  • Card, D., & Nelson, C. (2019). “How automation and digital disruption are shaping the workforce of the future”. Strategic HR Review. 18(6), 242-245. doi: 10.1108/SHR-08-2019-0067
  • Cengiz, S., & Şahin, A. (2020). “Teknolojik İlerlemenin İstihdam Yaratmadaki Rolü ve Önemi: Türkiye Örneği.” Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi, 1(45), 160-172.
  • Chiacchio, F., Petropoulos, G. & Pichler, D. (2018). “The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: A local labor market approach.” Bruegel Working paper, 2.
  • D. Autor, F. Levy, Murnane R.J. (2003). “The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration”. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1279-1333. doi: 10.1162/003355303322552801
  • David, H., & Dorn, D. (2013). “The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market”. American economic review, 103(5), 1553-97
  • Donald R. Davis, (1998). “Technology, Unemployment, and Relative Wages in a Global Economy,” European Economic Review, 42(9), 1613-1633.
  • Drucker, P. (2007). The practice of management. London: Routledge
  • Dworschak, B., & Zaiser, H. (2014). “Competences for cyber-physical systems in manufacturing–first findings and scenarios”. Procedia Cirp, 25, 345-350.
  • Fitsilis, P., Tsoutsa, P., & Gerogiannis, V. (2018). “Industry 4.0: Required personnel competences”. Internatıonal Scıentıfıc Journal "Industry 4.0", 3(3), 130-133.
  • Frey, C.B. & Osborne, M. A. (2017), “The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?”. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 114: 254–280.
  • http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf (Erişim: 10. Kasım 2021)
  • Faia, E., Laffitte, S., Mayer, M., & Ottaviano, G. (2021). “On the Employment Consequences of Automation and Offshoring: A Labor Market Sorting View”. In Robots and AI Routledge, 82-122
  • Hunt, J., & Nunn, R. (2019). “Is Employment Polarization Informative About Wage Inequality and Is Employment Really Polarizing?” National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007). “Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain”. The review of economics and statistics, 89(1), 118-133
  • Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salomons, A. (2009). ‘Job polarization in Europe’, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, 99, 58–63.
  • Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2018). “Robots at work”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 753-768 Internet: https://www.christs.cam.ac.uk/william-lee (Erişim: 02 Ağustos 2021)
  • Jaimovich, N., & Siu, H. E. (2012). “Job polarization and jobless recoveries” (No. w18334). National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Jerbashian, V. (2019). Automation and job polarization: On the decline of middling occupations in Europe. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 81(5), 1095-1116.
  • Johnson, Sara S. (2020). “The Future of Work”. American Journal of Health Promotion. 34(7), 809–812.
  • Karabulut, K., Özdemir, D., & Shahinpour, A. (2019). “Seçilmiş Ülkelerde Bilişim ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin (BİT) İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi.” Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 33(4).
  • Kergroach, S. (2017). “Industry 4.0: New challenges and opportunities for the labour market”. Форсайт, 11(4).
  • Kim, Y. J., Kim, K., & Lee, S. (2017). “The Rise of Technological Unemployment and Its Implications on the Future Macroeconomic Landscape,” Futures, 87, 1-9
  • Kurer, T., & Palier, B. (2019). “Shrinking and shouting: the political revolt of the declining middle in times of employment polarization.” Research & Politics, 6(1),
  • Kurt, R. (2019). “Industry 4.0 in terms of industrial relations and its impacts on labour life.” Procedia computer science, 158, 590-601.
  • Kolade, O., & Owoseni, A.(2020). ” Employment 4.0: The Work of the Future and the Future of Work.” Available at SSRN : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4073516
  • Kornelakis, A., Benassi, C., Grimshaw, D., & Miozzo, M. (2022). “Robots at the Gates? Robotic Process Automation, Skills and Institutions in Knowledge-Intensive Business Services.”
  • Maillard, J. (2021). “Automation, Offshoring and Employment Distribution in Western Europe.”
  • Maloney, W. F., & Molina, C. (2019). “Is Automation Labor-Displacing in the Developing Countries, Too? Robots, Polarization, and Jobs.”
  • Mann, K., & Püttmann, L. (2018). “Benign effects of automation: New evidence from patent texts”. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2959584
  • McKinsey & Company (2020, 13 Ocak). İşimizin Geleceği: Dijital Çağda Türkiye’nin Yetenek Dönüşümü. McKinsey & Company. Erişim adresi: https://mck.co/38A47M8
  • Milojevic, I., & Davidow, S. (2018). “The futures of work”. TEXT Specia, 52, 1-12
  • Mokyr, J., & Strotz, RH (1998). “The Second İndustrial Revolution, 1870-1914”. Storia dell'ekonomia Mondiale , 1-16
  • O’Rourke, K. H., Rahman, A. S., & Taylor, A. M. (2013). “Luddites, The İndustrial Revolution, And The Demographic Transition”. Journal of Economic Growth, 18(4), 373-409. doi: 10.1007/s10887-013-9096-y
  • OECD, (2021) https://data.oecd.org/inequality/income-inequality.htm (Erişim: 3 Ağustos 2021)
  • Pecchi, L., & Piga, G. (Eds.). (2010). “Revisiting Keynes: Economic Possibilities For Our Grandchildren”. ABD: Mit Press.
  • Parolin, Z. (2019). Automation and occupational wage trends. OECD
  • Pi, J., & Zhang P. (2018) “Skill-Biased Technological Change and Wage Inequality in Developing Countries,” International Review of Economics ve Finance, 56, 347-362
  • Prisecaru, P. (2017). “The challenges of the industry 4.0”. Global Economic Observer, 5(1), 66-72
  • Rainnie, A., & Dean, M. (2020). “Industry 4.0 and the future of quality work in the global digital economy”. Labour & Industry: a journal of the social and economic relations of work, 30(1), 16-33.
  • Rübmann, M., Lorenz, M., Gerbert, P., Waldner, M., Justus, J., Engel, P., & Harnisch, M. (2015). “Industry 4.0: The future of productivity and growth in manufacturing industries”. Boston Consulting Group, 9(1), 54-89.
  • Schlogl, L., & Sumner, A. (2020). “Automation and structural transformation in developing countries. In Disrupted Development and the Future of Inequality in the Age of Automation” . Palgrave Pivot, Cham. 51-78.
  • Schlegel, D., & Kraus, P. (2021). “Skills and competencies for digital transformation–a critical analysis in the context of robotic process automation.” International Journal of Organizational Analysis.
  • Schmidpeter, B., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2021). “Automation, unemployment, and the role of labor market training.” European Economic Review, 137
  • Valletta, R., & Barlow, N. (2018). The prime-age workforce and labor market polarization. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, 1-5.
  • Yasım, Y. K. (2020). “Endüstri 4.0: Çalışmanın Geleceği “. Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi , 9 (1) , 47-64 .
  • Weber, E. (2016). “Industry 4.0: Job-producer or Employment-destroyer?” (No. 2/2016). Aktuelle Berichte, Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10419/161710
  • Weyer, S., Schmitt, M., Ohmer, M., & Gorecky, D. (2015). “Towards Industry 4.0-Standardization as the crucial challenge for highly modular, multi-vendor production systems”. Ifac-Papersonline, 48(3), 579-584
  • World Economic Forum (2018), The future of jobs report 2018, Web: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2020.pdf (Erişim: 15 Ekim 2020).
  • World Employment and Social Outlook 2021: The role of digital labour platforms in transforming the world of work, International Labour Office – Geneva: ILO, 2021
There are 57 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hakan Saraç 0000-0001-5322-513X

Publication Date August 1, 2022
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 13 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Saraç, H. (2022). Otomasyonun Yükselişi. Kitlesel İşsizlik mi? Yeni İstihdam mı? İşgücü Piyasasına Etkisine Dair Bir Değerlendirme. Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 13(2), 55-76.

Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, Ocak ve Temmuz aylarında olmak üzere yılda iki defa çıkarılan ulusal ve uluslararası hakemli bilimsel bir dergidir.