The Relationship of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Growth in High-Income Countries

Yıl 2023, , 1202 - 1220, 30.10.2023

Serap Barış , Hilal Şeker

https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.1282692

Öz

In the last 15-20 years, important developments have emerged (September 11 Attack, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Arab Spring, Brexit vote, Russia's annexation of Crimea, refugee crisis, Russia-Ukraine War, etc.) that cause global political and economic uncertainty over the world. While the world is changing rapidly, such developments create political and economic instability, leading to an increase in national and global economic policy uncertainty. This increase in economic policy uncertainty can have a direct or indirect effect on the basic variables of the economy such as capital movements, stock market, investment and employment, especially the economic growth of nations. In this study, it is empirically examined whether economic policy uncertainty has an effect on economic growth. The sample of the study consists of the 1997-2020 period data of 14 high-income economies for which a regular data set is reached. In the study, in which panel data analysis methods were used, the findings show that economic policy uncertainty negatively affects growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic policy uncertainty, Economic growth, Panel data analysis.

YÜKSEK GELİRLİ ÜLKELERDE EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİĞİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ

Öz

Dünya genelinde son 15-20 yıldır küresel siyasi ve ekonomik belirsizliğe sebep olan önemli gelişmeler (11 Eylül Saldırısı, 2008 Küresel Finansal Kriz, Arap Baharı, Brexit oylaması, Rusya’nın Kırım’ı ilhakı, mülteci krizi, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı vb.) yaşanmaktadır. Dünya hızla değişirken bu tür gelişmeler siyasi ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar yaratarak ulusal ve küresel boyutta ekonomi politika belirsizliğinde artışa yol açmaktadır. Ekonomik politika belirsizliğindeki bu artış ulusların ekonomik büyümeleri başta olmak üzere sermaye hareketleri, borsa, yatırım, istihdam gibi ekonominin temel değişkenleri üzerinde doğrudan ya da dolaylı şekilde etkili olabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkili olup olmadığı ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın örneklemini düzenli veri setine ulaşılan 14 yüksek gelirli ekonominin 1997-2020 dönemi verileri oluşturmaktadır. Panel veri analiz yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada bulgular, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin büyümeyi negatif etkilediğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik politika belirsizliği, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel veri analizi.

Kaynakça

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