The Effect of Selected Variables on External Debt Stock: The Case of Türkiye

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the long-term relationship between trade openness, fixed capital formation, GDP per capita and general government final consumption expenditures on external debt stock, using annual data for the period 1994-2021 in Türkiye, with Johansen cointegration analysis. In this context, FMOLS and CCR coefficient estimators were used to determine the long-term relationships of the variables. According to the findings obtained from the FMOLS and CCR coefficient estimators, the general government final consumption expenditures affected the external debt stock the most among the variables examined in Türkiye in the 1994-2021 period. It was followed by GDP per capita, fixed capital formation and trade openness. In summary, while fixed capital formation, trade openness and general government final consumption expenditures increase Türkiye's external debt stock, GDP per capita decreases the external debt stock in the same economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• External Debt Stock
• Fixed Capital Formation
• Trade Openness Ratio
• GDP per capita

Seçilmiş Değişkenlerin Dış Borç Stoku Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 1994-2021 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanarak ticari açıklık oranı, sabit sermaye oluşumu, kişi başına GSYH ve genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamalarının dış borç stoku üzerindeki uzun dönemli ilişkisini Johansen eş bütünleşme analizi ile incelemektir. Bu kapsamda, değişkenlerin uzun dönemli ilişkilerini belirlemede FMOLS ve CCR katsayı tahmincileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. FMOLS ve CCR katsayı tahmincilerinden elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de 1994-2021 döneminde incelenen değişkenler arasında dış borç stokunu en çok genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamaları etkilemiştir. Onu kişi başına GSYH, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve ticari açıklık oranı takip etmiştir. Özetle, sabit sermaye oluşumu, ticari açıklık oranı ve genel devlet nihai tüketim harcamaları Türkiye’nin dış borç stokunu arıtırken, kişi başına GSYH aynı ekonomide dış borç stokunu azaltmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış Borç Stoku
• Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu
• Ticari Açıklık Oranı
• Kişi Başına GSYH

Kaynakça

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