Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru ve Sofistike Ürün İhracatı: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Son yıllarda literatürde yeni bir akım, ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmanın temelinde ihracatın miktarının değil kalitesinin olduğunu öne sürmektedir. Bu nedenle ihracatın kalitesini artırmayı amaçlayan stratejiler politika yapıcılar için önemli bir hale gelmiştir. İhracatı ve kalitesini etkileyebilecek en önemli politika araçlarından biri reel efektif döviz kurudur. Ancak ihracatın kalitesi ile reel efektif döviz kuru arasındaki bağlantılar yeterince analiz edilmemiştir. Bu makale, 2005 ile 2015 yılları arasında 57 ülke için panel veri seti kullanarak, sofistike ürün ihracatı ile reel efektif döviz kuru arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Sofistike ürün ihracatına ilişkin yeni bir veri tabanı kullanan, iki farklı reel efektif döviz kuru endeksini hesaba katan ve dinamik bir panel veri metodolojisi (sistem GMM) kullanan bu makale, reel efektif döviz kurundaki değerlenmenin ihracatın niteliğini artırdığını göstermektedir. Ayrıca ampirik sonuçlar, ülkelerin başlangıç gelirlerinin, doğrudan yabancı yatırımların, beşeri sermayenin ve yurt içi tasarrufların sofistike ürün ihracatını olumlu yönde etkilediğini, nüfus artışının ise sofistike ürün ihracatını azalttığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sofistike Ürün İhracatı
• Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru
• Dinamik Panel Veri

Real Effective Exchange Rate and Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Öz

In recent years, a new strand of the literature argued that not the quantity, but the quality of exports is at the core of economic growth and development. Therefore, strategies aiming to improve the quality of exports should be a major concern for policy makers. One of the most important policy tools that could affect exports and their quality is the real effective exchange rate. However, connections between the quality of exports and real effective exchange rate have not been fully explored. Based on a panel data of 57 countries for the years between 2005 and 2015, this paper investigates the relationship between export sophistication and real effective exchange rate. Using a novel database of export sophistication, taking into account two different real effective exchange rate indices and utilizing a dynamic panel data methodology, namely system GMM, this paper shows that an appreciation in real effective exchange rate improves the sophistication of exports. In addition, empirical results also show that the initial income of countries, foreign direct investment, human capital, and domestic savings positively affect export sophistication, whereas population growth decreases the sophistication of exports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export Sophistication
• Real Effective Exchange Rate
• Dynamic Panel Data

Kaynakça

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