Testing Kaldor’s Growth Laws for Turkey: New Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Methods

Year 2020, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 713 - 729, 25.12.2020

Uğur Korkut Pata Hilmi Zengin

https://doi.org/10.18074/ckuiibfd.625455

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Nicholas
Kaldor’s main contribution to economic theory was his work on industry-based
growth model. Kaldor’s laws examine the relationship between the industrial
sector, economic growth and labor productivity. This paper aims to test the
validity of Kaldor’s first and second (Kaldor-Verdoorn’s)
law using symmetric Toda and Yamamoto (1995); Hacker and Hatemi-J (2006) and
asymmetric Hatemi-J (2012) causality methods for Turkey covering the period of
1980-2014. According to the results of the symmetric causality tests, Kaldor’s
first and second law are valid for Turkey. Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis
shows that industry value added have a positive effect on both economic growth
and labor productivity in the industrial sector. The asymmetric causality test
results indicate that Kaldor’s first law holds in Turkey; however,
Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law is invalid. These results show that development in the
industrial sector promotes economic growth.

Keywords

Kaldor’s Laws, Industrialization, Productivity, Asymmetric Causality Test

Kaldor Yasalarının Türkiye için Testi: Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yöntemleri ile Yeni Bulgular

Abstract

Nikolas Kaldor’un iktisat teorisine temel katkısı sanayiye dayalı büyüme
modelidir. Kaldor yasaları sanayi sektörü, ekonomik büyüme ve işgücü
verimliliği arasındaki ilişkileri incelemektedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye için
1980-2014 döneminde Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci (Kaldor-Verdoorn) yasasının geçerliliğini, simetrik; Toda ve Yamamoto
(1995), Hacker ve Hatemi-J (2006) ve asimetrik; Hatemi-J (2012) nedensellik
yöntemleri kullanarak test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Simetrik nedensellik
testlerinin sonuçlarına göre Kaldor’un birinci ve ikinci yasası Türkiye için
geçerlidir. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik analizi sanayi sektöründe yaratılan katma
değerin hem ekonomik büyüme hem de sanayi sektöründeki işgücü verimliliği
üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Asimetrik
nedensellik testinin bulguları ise Kaldor’un ilk yasasının geçerli olduğunu
ancak ikinci yasasının geçerli olmadığını belirtmektedir. Bu bulgular sanayi
sektöründeki gelişmenin ekonomik büyümeyi desteklediğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kaldor Yasaları, Sanayileşme, Verimlilik, Asimetrik Nedensellik Testi

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