Identifying the Past, Present, and Future Distribution Patterns of the Balkan Wall Lizard (Sauria: Lacertidae: Podarcis tauricus) by Ecological Niche Modelling

Abstract

: Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods have been greatly affected the distribution pattern of the species. The impact of the global climate change upon species distributions such as range shifts in latitude or elevation has been widely studied. In this study, it was aimed to have a better understanding on the effects of the Late-Pleistocene climatic oscillation and the global climate changes on a widely distributed reptile species, the Balkan wall lizard (Podarcis tauricus). To find out the dynamics of the species’ range shifts, ecological niche modelling approach was applied. Bioclimatic variables and regenerated species occurrence records were used to construct models. The chosen model was projected to the present, reconstructed past and predicted future bio-climatic conditions. Moreover, distribution change and landscape connectivity analyzes were executed. Under present conditions, model prediction for the Balkan wall lizard was largely caught its known distribution area. The LGM distribution prediction was limited to a few spots (57,596.19 km2) in the southern Balkans, mainly due to the negative effect of the mean winter temperature. From the LGM to the present, distribution area of the species remarkably extended, particularly noticeable during Mid-Holocene (1,254.59%). The model predicted the distribution area of the species would extend due to high mean summer and high mean winter temperatures in the future and move basically towards northern latitudes and at higher elevations. A connectivity pattern in between the southwestern and northeastern populations of the Balkan wall lizard was found with high connectivity predicted predominantly over the southern Balkans.

Keywords

• Late-Quaternary climatic oscillations
• glacial refugia
• global climate change
• Maxent
• Wallace.

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