Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Ulusal Asgari Ücretin Genç İşsizliğine Etkileri

Abstract

Ulusal asgari ücret düzenlemelerinin, küresel ve acil bir sosyal sorun olan genç işsizliği üzerindeki etkisi önemli bir araştırma sorunu olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda araştırma, seçilmiş 26 OECD ülkesinin 2005–2023 dönemini kapsayan panel veri setiyle genç işsizlik oranı ile asgari ücret arasındaki ilişkinin öngörü ilişkisini incelemektedir. Modele, literatürle uyumlu olarak asgari ücret, 25 yaş üstü istihdam oranı ve kişi başına gelir birlikte dâhil edilmekte; panelin heterojen yapısı ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alınarak Emirmahmutoglu ve Kose (2011) panel Granger çerçevesi uygulanmaktadır. Bulgular, asgari ücret–genç işsizlik ilişkisinin ülkeler arasında heterojen seyrettiğini göstermektedir. Bazı ülkelerde asgari ücretten genç işsizliğe doğru Granger anlamında öngörü saptanmakta, bazılarında ise anlamlı bir öngörü bulunmamaktadır. Eşzamanlı makro şoklar ve politikalar korelasyonu yapay olarak güçlendirebileceğinden, bulgular Granger-öngörü çerçevesinin tanımlama sınırları içinde yorumlanmalıdır. Ek olarak, 25+ istihdam ve kişi başına gelir değişkenleri için elde edilen sonuçlar, genç işsizliğin yalnızca ücret düzenlemeleriyle değil, makro konjonktür ve emek piyasasının koşulları gibi daha geniş belirleyicilerle birlikte ele alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Genel olarak bulgular, genç işsizlikle mücadelede tek başına ücret politikalarının yeterli olmadığını; sosyal adalet temelli politika araçlarının asgari ücret politikalarıyla birlikte tasarlanmasının önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Genç işsizliği
• Asgari ücret
• Emek piyasaları
• Sosyal politika

Effects of National Minimum Wage on Youth Unemployment in Selected Oecd Countries

Abstract

The impact of national minimum-wage regulations on youth unemployment, a global and urgent social challenge, has emerged as a salient research question. Using a panel dataset for 26 OECD countries over 2005–2023, this study examines the Granger-predictive relationship between the youth unemployment rate and the minimum wage. In line with the literature, the model jointly includes the minimum wage, the employment rate of those aged 25+, and per-capita income. Given the panel’s heterogeneous structure and cross-sectional dependence, the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) panel Granger framework is employed. The findings indicate that the minimum-wage–youth-unemployment relationship is heterogeneous across countries: in some cases, there is Granger predictability from the minimum wage to youth unemployment, while in others no statistically significant predictability is detected. As concurrent macroeconomic shocks and policy shifts can artificially amplify the correlation, the results should be read within the identification bounds of the Granger-prediction framework. Moreover, results for the 25+ employment rate and per-capita income underscore that youth unemployment should be analysed not solely through wage regulations but in conjunction with broader determinants such as macroeconomic conditions and labour-market tightness. Overall, the evidence suggests that wage policy alone is insufficient to reduce youth unemployment and highlights the importance of designing social-justice-oriented policy instruments alongside minimum-wage policy.

Keywords

• Youth unemployment
• Minimum wage
• Labour markets
• Social policy

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