Seçilmiş OECD Ülkelerinde Ulusal Asgari Ücretin Genç İşsizliğine Etkileri

Öz

Ulusal asgari ücret düzenlemelerinin, küresel ve acil bir sosyal sorun olan genç işsizliği üzerindeki etkisi önemli bir araştırma sorunu olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda araştırma, seçilmiş 26 OECD ülkesinin 2005–2023 dönemini kapsayan panel veri setiyle genç işsizlik oranı ile asgari ücret arasındaki ilişkinin öngörü ilişkisini incelemektedir. Modele, literatürle uyumlu olarak asgari ücret, 25 yaş üstü istihdam oranı ve kişi başına gelir birlikte dâhil edilmekte; panelin heterojen yapısı ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı dikkate alınarak Emirmahmutoglu ve Kose (2011) panel Granger çerçevesi uygulanmaktadır. Bulgular, asgari ücret–genç işsizlik ilişkisinin ülkeler arasında heterojen seyrettiğini göstermektedir. Bazı ülkelerde asgari ücretten genç işsizliğe doğru Granger anlamında öngörü saptanmakta, bazılarında ise anlamlı bir öngörü bulunmamaktadır. Eşzamanlı makro şoklar ve politikalar korelasyonu yapay olarak güçlendirebileceğinden, bulgular Granger-öngörü çerçevesinin tanımlama sınırları içinde yorumlanmalıdır. Ek olarak, 25+ istihdam ve kişi başına gelir değişkenleri için elde edilen sonuçlar, genç işsizliğin yalnızca ücret düzenlemeleriyle değil, makro konjonktür ve emek piyasasının koşulları gibi daha geniş belirleyicilerle birlikte ele alınması gerektiğini vurgulamaktadır. Genel olarak bulgular, genç işsizlikle mücadelede tek başına ücret politikalarının yeterli olmadığını; sosyal adalet temelli politika araçlarının asgari ücret politikalarıyla birlikte tasarlanmasının önemini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Genç işsizliği
• Asgari ücret
• Emek piyasaları
• Sosyal politika

Effects of National Minimum Wage on Youth Unemployment in Selected Oecd Countries

Öz

The impact of national minimum-wage regulations on youth unemployment, a global and urgent social challenge, has emerged as a salient research question. Using a panel dataset for 26 OECD countries over 2005–2023, this study examines the Granger-predictive relationship between the youth unemployment rate and the minimum wage. In line with the literature, the model jointly includes the minimum wage, the employment rate of those aged 25+, and per-capita income. Given the panel’s heterogeneous structure and cross-sectional dependence, the Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) panel Granger framework is employed. The findings indicate that the minimum-wage–youth-unemployment relationship is heterogeneous across countries: in some cases, there is Granger predictability from the minimum wage to youth unemployment, while in others no statistically significant predictability is detected. As concurrent macroeconomic shocks and policy shifts can artificially amplify the correlation, the results should be read within the identification bounds of the Granger-prediction framework. Moreover, results for the 25+ employment rate and per-capita income underscore that youth unemployment should be analysed not solely through wage regulations but in conjunction with broader determinants such as macroeconomic conditions and labour-market tightness. Overall, the evidence suggests that wage policy alone is insufficient to reduce youth unemployment and highlights the importance of designing social-justice-oriented policy instruments alongside minimum-wage policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Youth unemployment
• Minimum wage
• Labour markets
• Social policy

Kaynakça

1. Acemoglu, D., & Robinson, J. A. (2013). Why nations fail: The origins of power, prosperity, and poverty. New York, NY: Crown Business.
2. Acemoglu, D., & Autor, D. (2011). Skills, tasks and technologies: Implications for employment and earnings. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of labor economics (Vol. 4B, pp. 1043–1171). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02410-5
3. Adams, Z. (2020). Labour and the wage: A critical perspective. Oxford: OUP Oxford.
4. Andriopoulou, E., & Karakitsios, A. (2022). Unemployment transitions and the role of minimum wage: From pre-crisis to crisis and recovery. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2022-0002
5. Aydın, R. (2025). Kentleşmenin teknoloji, CO2 ve ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: Seçilmiş ülkeler üzerine bir uygulama. Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 66, 231–245. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdae022
6. Autor, D. H., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). The China syndrome: Local labor market effects of import competition in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121–2168. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2121
7. Azar, J., Huet-Vaughn, E., Marinescu, I., Taska, B., & von Wachter, T. (2024). Minimum wage employment effects and labour market concentration. Review of Economic Studies, 91(4), 1843–1883. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad091
8. Bai, J., & Ng, S. (2005). A new look at panel testing of stationarity and the PPP hypothesis (pp. 426–450). In Econometric analysis of financial and economic time series. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

9. Bakış, O., Hisarcıklılar, M., & Filiztekin, A. (2015). The impact of a minimum wage increase on employment and school enrollment: Evidence from Turkey. EAF Working Paper. https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2015-10-16_bakis.pdf (Erişim: 02.02.2025).
10. Bal-Domańska, B. (2022). The impact of macroeconomic and structural factors on the unemployment of young women and men. Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 1141–1172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09341-9
11. Bayrak, R., & Tatlı, H. (2018). The determinants of youth unemployment: A panel data analysis of OECD countries. European Journal of Comparative Economics, 15(2), 231–248. ISSN 1824-2979
12. Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381–409. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.2006.00478.x
13. Bernstein, J. (2016). Wages in the United States: Trends, explanations, and solutions. In I. Kirsch & H. Braun (Eds.), The dynamics of opportunity in America. Cham: Springer.
14. Biçerli, M. K., & Kocaman, M. (2019). The impact of minimum wage on unemployment, prices, and growth: A multivariate analysis for Turkey. Economic Annals, 64(221), 65–84.
15. Bils, M., Klenow, P. J., & Malin, B. A. (2013). Testing for Keynesian labor demand. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 27(1), 311–349. https://doi.org/ 10.1086/669182
16. Boeri, T., & van Ours, J. (2021). The economics of imperfect labor markets (3rd ed.). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
17. Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The LM test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
18. Brown, C., Gilroy, C., & Kohen, A. (1982). The effect of the minimum wage on employment and unemployment. Journal of Economic Literature, 20(2), 487–528.
19. Broyaka, A., & Khaietska, O. (2020). Unemployment as a major socio-economic problem of society development. Polish Journal of Science, 27(2), 57–67.
20. Cahuc, P., Carcillo, S., Zylberberg, A., McCuaig, W., & Carcillo, S. (2014). Labor economics (2nd ed.). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
21. Cengiz, D., Dube, A., Lindner, A., & Zipperer, B. (2019). The effect of minimum wages on low-wage jobs. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3), 1405–1454. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz014
22. Cengiz, D., Dube, A., Lindner, A., & Zentler-Munro, D. (2022). Seeing beyond the trees: Using machine learning to estimate the impact of minimum wages on labor market outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics, 40(S1), 203–247.
23. Che-Yahya, N., Rosdi, N. E. A. S. M., Zaghlol, A. K., & Alyasa-Gan, S. S. (2024). Explaining youth unemployment in Malaysia: The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 11(2.2), 521–536. https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.112.2.16429
24. Christl, M., Köppl-Turyna, M., & Kucsera, D. (2018). Revisiting the employment effects of minimum wages in Europe. German Economic Review, 19(4), 426–465. https://doi.org/10.1111/geer.12135
25. Choudhry, M. T., Marelli, E., & Signorelli, M. (2012). Youth unemployment rate and impact of financial crises. International Journal of Manpower, 33(1), 76–95. https://doi.org/10.1108/01437721211212538
26. Dai, T., Fan, H., Liu, X., & Ma, C. (2022). Delayed retirement policy and unemployment rates. Journal of Macroeconomics, 71, 103387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2021.103387
27. Dayioglu, M., Kücükbayrak, M., & Tümen, S. (2022). The impact of age-specific minimum wages on youth employment and education: A regression discontinuity analysis. International Journal of Manpower, 43(6), 1352–1377. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJM-02-2021-0079
28. Değirmenci, T., ve Aydın, M. (2020). Çevre koruma harcamaları ile gelir dağılımı ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki dinamik ilişkiler: Seçili OECD ülkeleri için panel nedensellik yaklaşımı. Sosyoekonomi, 28(46), 391–406. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.04.18
29. Dietrich, H., & Möller, J. (2016). Youth unemployment in Europe – Business cycle and institutional effects. International Economics and Economic Policy, 13, 5–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10368-015-0331-1
30. Dube, A., Jacobs, J., Naidu, S., & Suri, S. (2020). Monopsony in online labor markets. American Economic Review: Insights, 2(1), 33–46. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180150
31. Ehinomen, C., & Afolabi, B. (2015). Rising youth unemployment and its socio-economic implications for the growth and development of the Nigerian economy. The Nigerian Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 6(2), 1–27.
32. Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870–876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018
33. Erkan, B., & Ceylan, F. (2021). Determinants of economic complexity in transitional economies. Transition Studies Review, 28(2), 57–80. https://doi.org/10.14665/1614-4007-28-2-004
34. Ezie, O. (2012). Youth unemployment and its socio-economic implications in Nigeria. Journal of Social Science and Public Policy, 4, 1–10.
35. Falk, A., Fehr, E., & Zehnder, C. (2006). Fairness perceptions and reservation wages: The behavioral effects of minimum wage laws. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121(4), 1347–1381. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/121.4.1347
36. Fromentin, V. (2021). Cross-border workers in the Greater Region of Luxembourg and financial instability: A non-linear approach. Applied Economics, 53(27), 3171–3192. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1877251
37. Graetz, G., & Michaels, G. (2018). Robots at work. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(5), 753–768. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00754
38. Greenlaw, S. A., Shapiro, D., & Taylor, T. (2017). Principles of economics 2e. Houston, TX: OpenStax.
39. Greenwood, D. T. (2016). Institutionalist theories of the wage bargain: Beyond demand and supply. Journal of Economic Issues, 50(2), 406–414. https://doi.org/10.1080/00213624.2016.1176493
40. Griffith, W., Paull, K., & Smith, R. (2015). The correlation between minimum wage and youth unemployment: A cross-country analysis. Atlanta, GA: Georgia Institute of Technology.
41. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
42. Hadri, K. (2002). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3(2), 148–161. https://doi.org/10.1111/1368-423X.00043
43. Hadri, K., & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2011.11.036
44. Hadri, K., & Rao, Y. (2008). Panel stationarity test with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70(2), 245–269. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00502.x
45. Haupt, A., & Ebner, C. (2020). Occupations and inequality: Theoretical perspectives and mechanisms. Kölner Zeitschrift für Soziologie und Sozialpsychologie, 72(Suppl 1), 19–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11577-020-00685-0
46. Herrendorf, B., Rogerson, R., & Valentinyi, Á. (2014). Growth and structural transformation. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 2, pp. 855–941). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53540-5.00006-9
47. Holtemöller, O., & Pohle, F. (2020). Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany. Economic Modelling, 89, 108–121. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.006
48. Huang, J., Zhu, H., & Chen, D. (2024). Issues with youth labour market: Unemployment and precarious employment. International Journal of Education Humanities and Social Science, 7(5), 503–511.
49. ILO. (2023). Statistics on employment. https://ilostat.ilo.org/topics/employment/ (Erişim: 10.12.2024).
50. ILO. (2024). World employment and social outlook: Trends 2024. Geneva: International Labour Office. (Erişim: 10.12.2024).
51. Işık, E., Orhangazi, Ö., & Tekgüç, H. (2020). Heterogeneous effects of minimum wage on labor market outcomes: A case study from Turkey. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 10(1), 1–41. https://doi.org/10.2478/izajolp-2020-0016
52. Jardim, E., Long, M. C., Plotnick, R., van Inwegen, E., Vigdor, J., & Wething, H. (2022). Minimum-wage increases and low-wage employment: Evidence from Seattle. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 14(2), 263–314.
53. Judzik, D., & Sala, H. (2013). Productivity, deunionization and trade: Wage effects and labour share implications. International Labour Review, 152(2), 205–236. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1564-913X.2013.00178.x
54. Kang, Y. D. (2021). Determinants of youth unemployment: Empirical analysis of OECD and EU member countries. Journal of Economic Development, 46(3), 111–133. https://jed.cau.ac.kr/archives/46-3/46-3-6.pdf
55. Koeniger, W., Leonardi, M., & Nunziata, L. (2007). Labor market institutions and wage inequality. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 23(4), 340–360. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25249090
56. Kreiner, C. T., Reck, D., & Skov, P. E. (2020). Do lower minimum wages for young workers raise their employment? Evidence from a Danish discontinuity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(2), 339–354. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00825
57. Kumar, M., & Mitra, A. (2024). Labour market profile of the youth: Role of education, caste, and economic background. In A. Mitra (Ed.), Youth in Indian labour market. Singapore: Springer.
58. Le Petit-Guerin, M. (2024). African youth and employment: The promise of a better tomorrow? Revue de droit comparé du travail et de la sécurité sociale, 4, 152–169. https://doi.org/10.4000/12z6y
59. Liu, S., Hyclak, T. J., & Regmi, K. (2016). Impact of the minimum wage on youth labor markets. Labour, 30(1), 18–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12071
60. Manning, A. (2011). Imperfect competition in the labor market. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of labor economics (Vol. 4B, pp. 973–1041). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-7218(11)02409-9
61. Manning, A. (2021). Monopsony in labor markets: A review. ILR Review, 74(1), 3–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793920922499
62. Marimpi, M., & Koning, P. (2018). Youth minimum wages and youth employment. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 7, 5. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40173-018-0098-4
63. Monray, J., & Morillo, J. (2025). Minimum wage and effects on unemployment: The case of Spain and its implications on Simpson’s paradox and geographical mobility. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 17(2), 26–44. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v17n2p26
64. Munnell, A. H., & Wu, A. Y. (2013). Will delayed retirement by the baby boomers lead to higher unemployment among younger workers? (Center for Retirement Research Working Paper No. 2012-22). Chestnut Hill, MA: Boston College.
65. Nazlioglu, S., Payne, J. E., Lee, J., Rayos-Velazquez, M., & Karul, C. (2021). Convergence in OPEC carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with factors and breaks. Economic Modelling, 100, 105498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2021.105498
66. OECD. (2023). Real minimum wages at constant prices. https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?lc=en&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_EARNINGS%40RMW&df[ag]=OECD.ELS.SAE&dq=...A...&pd=2001%2C&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false (Erişim: 10.12.2024).
67. Othman, K., Mustapha, Y. A. A., Zakaria, Z., & Salehhin, M. A. (2024). Dynamics of youth unemployment in ASEAN-5 emerging economies through macroeconomic analysis. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 14(3), 67–75. https://doi.org/10.55493/5004.v14i3.5173
68. Otterby, D., Crawley, A., & Gabe, T. (2024). Effects of the minimum wage on US county labor markets. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 16(5), 100008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rspp.2024.100008
69. Otto, S. (2021). Unit root testing with slowly varying trends. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 42(1), 85–106. https://doi.org/10.1111/jtsa.12557
70. Papps, K. L. (2012). The effects of social security taxes and minimum wages on employment: Evidence from Turkey. ILR Review, 65(3), 686–707. https://doi.org/10.1177/001979391206500309
71. Patra, S., & Nayak, S. R. (2012). A theoretical study on the relationship between wages and labor productivity in industries. International Journal of Economics and Research, 3(3), 157–163.
72. Paun, C. V., Nechita, R., Patruti, A., & Topan, M. V. (2021). The impact of the minimum wage on employment: An EU panel data analysis. Sustainability, 13(16), 9359. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13169359
73. Pelek, S. (2015). The employment effect of the minimum wage: An empirical analysis from Turkey. Ekonomi-tek, 4(1), 49–68.
74. Pellegrini, E. (2019). Pellegrini, E. (2019). Generation Jobless: Youth Unemployment and the Disparate cases of Germany and Spain. https://digitalrepository.trincoll.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1074&context=trinitypapers
75. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, No. 0435.
76. Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951
77. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-sectional dependence. Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23116064
78. Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
79. Salverda, W., & Checchi, D. (2014). Labour-market institutions and the dispersion of wage earnings (IZA Discussion Paper No. 8220). Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
80. Shahiri, M., Ismail, R., & Othman, Z. (2024). The impact of minimum wage policy on youth unemployment in Malaysia. International Journal of Economics and Management, 18(1), 123–140.
81. Shapiro, C., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1984). Equilibrium unemployment as a worker discipline device. American Economic Review, 74(3), 433–444. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1804018
82. Sturn, S. (2017). Do minimum wages lead to job losses? Evidence from OECD countries on low-skilled and youth employment. International Labour Review, 71(3), 647–675. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019793917741259
83. Tomić, I. (2018). What drives youth unemployment in Europe? Economic vs non-economic determinants. International Labour Review, 157(3), 379–408. https://doi.org/10.1111/ilr.12113
84. Wolfson, P., & Belman, D. (2019). 15 years of research on US employment and the minimum wage. Labour, 33(4), 488–506. https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12162
85. World Bank. (2023). Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15–24) (modeled ILO estimate). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.1524.ZS (Erişim: 10.12.2024).
86. World Bank. (2023). GDP per capita (constant LCU). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KN (Erişim: 10.12.2024).
87. Yin, W., & Wu, Y. (2001). A panel data unit root test with applications to exchange rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(1), 1–25.
88. Zhao, Y., & Wang, S. (2015). The relationship between urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption in China: An econometric perspective analysis. Sustainability, 7(5), 5609–5627. https://doi.org/10.3390/su7055609