Building an Inclusive Just Transition Framework for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Workforce: An Input-Output Analysis

Year 2026, Volume: 1 Issue: 88, 65 - 94, 24.01.2026

Ahmet Atıl Aşıcı

https://doi.org/10.54752/ct.1750387

Abstract

As Türkiye commits to achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, the phase-out of fossil fuels necessitates a Just Transition framework to mitigate socio-economic risks for workers and coal-dependent regions like Zonguldak, Soma, and Afşin-Elbistan. This study combines a global review of Just Transition practices with empirical Input-Output (IO) analysis of Türkiye’s labor market to identify equitable pathways for workforce redeployment and policy design. The study draws on comparative case studies—including Germany’s Ruhr region, Spain’s coal transition, and Poland’s Upper Silesia—to extract transferable lessons on reskilling, regional diversification, and social protection. Using Türkiye’s 2018 IO tables, the analysis quantifies employment multipliers across 24 sectors, revealing that redirecting demand from coal to agriculture yields the highest job creation potential (135,617 new jobs per 8.93 billion TL shifted), followed by retail, health services, and education. Conversely, shifting demand to petroleum products risks net job losses.
Türkiye’s Just Transition requires targeted reskilling, linking fossil fuel workers to renewable energy and green manufacturing. Regional transition agencies should oversee diversification, leveraging renewable hubs. Social safety nets like wage subsidies and portable benefits are vital. A national Just Transition Fund, funded by redirected subsidies, can drive change. Stakeholder engagement ensures inclusive governance. By blending global best practices with local realities, Türkiye can become a model for emerging economies, balancing climate action with labor equity and regional resilience.

Keywords

Just Transition , employment impacts , input-output analysis , coal phase-out , Türkiye

Ethical Statement

Herhangi bir kurum, kuruluş veya kişiler ile çıkar çatışması yoktur. Yazarların kendi aralarında herhangi bir çıkar çatışması yoktur.

Supporting Institution

TÜBİTAK

Project Number

TÜBİTAK 1001 Proje No: 123K509

Thanks

Bu makale Baran Örnek’in de STAR bursiyeri olarak içinde yeraldığı “Türkiye’nin Enerji Dönüşümü Sürecinde Kömürden Çıkışı Adil Kılmak Ve Bölgesel Kalkınmayı Yeniden Planlamak: Muğla Örneği” başlıklı ve 123K509 no’lu TÜBİTAK 1001 programı altında desteklenmişitr. Desteği için TÜBİTAK’a teşekkür ederiz.

Türkiye’nin Fosil Yakıt İşgücü için Kapsayıcı Bir Adil Dönüşüm Çerçevesi İnşası: Girdi-Çıktı Analizi

Abstract

Türkiye’nin 2053 net-sıfır emisyon hedefine ulaşma taahhüdü, fosil yakıtların aşamalı olarak terk edilmesini gerektirmekte ve bu süreçte Zonguldak, Soma ve Afşin-Elbistan gibi kömüre bağımlı bölgelerdeki işçiler ile yerel ekonomilerin karşılaşabileceği sosyo-ekonomik riskleri hafifletecek bir Adil Dönüşüm çerçevesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, küresel Adil Dönüşüm uygulamalarının bir incelemesini, Türkiye’nin işgücü piyasasına dair ampirik Girdi-Çıktı (G-Ç) analizi ile birleştirerek işgücünün yeniden istihdamı ve politika tasarımı için eşitlikçi yollar ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, Almanya’nın Ruhr bölgesi, İspanya’nın kömürden çıkış deneyimi ve Polonya’nın Yukarı Silezya’sı gibi karşılaştırmalı vaka çalışmalarından yararlanarak yeniden beceri kazandırma, bölgesel çeşitlendirme ve sosyal koruma alanlarında aktarılabilir dersler çıkarmaktadır. Türkiye’nin 2018 G-Ç tablolarını kullanan analiz, 24 sektördeki istihdam çarpanlarını nicelendirmekte ve talebin kömürden tarıma kaydırılmasının en yüksek istihdam potansiyeli yarattığını (8,93 milyar TL’lik kaymayla 135.617 yeni iş) ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, talebin petrol ürünlerine yönlendirilmesi net istihdam kaybı riski taşımaktadır.
Türkiye’nin Adil Dönüşümü; fosil yakıt işçilerini yenilenebilir enerji ve yeşil imalata bağlayacak hedefli yeniden beceri kazandırma programlarını, bölgesel çeşitlendirmeyi yenilenebilir enerji merkezleriyle yönetecek bölgesel dönüşüm ajanslarını, ücret sübvansiyonları ve taşınabilir haklar gibi sosyal güvenlik ağlarını, fosil yakıt sübvansiyonlarının yönlendirilmesiyle finanse edilecek bir Ulusal Adil Dönüşüm Fonu’nu ve sendikalar, yerel yönetimler ve toplulukları kapsayan katılımcı yönetişimi gerektirmektedir. Küresel en iyi uygulamaların yerel sosyo-ekonomik gerçeklerle harmanlanmasıyla Türkiye, iklim hedeflerini emek eşitliği ve bölgesel dirençlilikle uzlaştırarak yükselen ekonomiler için bir model olabilir.

Keywords

Adil Dönüşüm , istihdam etkileri , girdi-çıktı analizi , kömürden çıkış , Türkiye

Project Number

TÜBİTAK 1001 Proje No: 123K509

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