Building an Inclusive Just Transition Framework for Türkiye’s Fossil Fuel Workforce: An Input-Output Analysis

Öz

As Türkiye commits to achieving net-zero emissions by 2053, the phase-out of fossil fuels necessitates a Just Transition framework to mitigate socio-economic risks for workers and coal-dependent regions like Zonguldak, Soma, and Afşin-Elbistan. This study combines a global review of Just Transition practices with empirical Input-Output (IO) analysis of Türkiye’s labor market to identify equitable pathways for workforce redeployment and policy design. The study draws on comparative case studies—including Germany’s Ruhr region, Spain’s coal transition, and Poland’s Upper Silesia—to extract transferable lessons on reskilling, regional diversification, and social protection. Using Türkiye’s 2018 IO tables, the analysis quantifies employment multipliers across 24 sectors, revealing that redirecting demand from coal to agriculture yields the highest job creation potential (135,617 new jobs per 8.93 billion TL shifted), followed by retail, health services, and education. Conversely, shifting demand to petroleum products risks net job losses. Türkiye’s Just Transition requires targeted reskilling, linking fossil fuel workers to renewable energy and green manufacturing. Regional transition agencies should oversee diversification, leveraging renewable hubs. Social safety nets like wage subsidies and portable benefits are vital. A national Just Transition Fund, funded by redirected subsidies, can drive change. Stakeholder engagement ensures inclusive governance. By blending global best practices with local realities, Türkiye can become a model for emerging economies, balancing climate action with labor equity and regional resilience.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Just Transition
• employment impacts
• input-output analysis
• coal phase-out
• Türkiye

Türkiye’nin Fosil Yakıt İşgücü için Kapsayıcı Bir Adil Dönüşüm Çerçevesi İnşası: Girdi-Çıktı Analizi

Öz

Türkiye’nin 2053 net-sıfır emisyon hedefine ulaşma taahhüdü, fosil yakıtların aşamalı olarak terk edilmesini gerektirmekte ve bu süreçte Zonguldak, Soma ve Afşin-Elbistan gibi kömüre bağımlı bölgelerdeki işçiler ile yerel ekonomilerin karşılaşabileceği sosyo-ekonomik riskleri hafifletecek bir Adil Dönüşüm çerçevesini zorunlu kılmaktadır. Bu çalışma, küresel Adil Dönüşüm uygulamalarının bir incelemesini, Türkiye’nin işgücü piyasasına dair ampirik Girdi-Çıktı (G-Ç) analizi ile birleştirerek işgücünün yeniden istihdamı ve politika tasarımı için eşitlikçi yollar ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, Almanya’nın Ruhr bölgesi, İspanya’nın kömürden çıkış deneyimi ve Polonya’nın Yukarı Silezya’sı gibi karşılaştırmalı vaka çalışmalarından yararlanarak yeniden beceri kazandırma, bölgesel çeşitlendirme ve sosyal koruma alanlarında aktarılabilir dersler çıkarmaktadır. Türkiye’nin 2018 G-Ç tablolarını kullanan analiz, 24 sektördeki istihdam çarpanlarını nicelendirmekte ve talebin kömürden tarıma kaydırılmasının en yüksek istihdam potansiyeli yarattığını (8,93 milyar TL’lik kaymayla 135.617 yeni iş) ortaya koymaktadır. Buna karşılık, talebin petrol ürünlerine yönlendirilmesi net istihdam kaybı riski taşımaktadır. Türkiye’nin Adil Dönüşümü; fosil yakıt işçilerini yenilenebilir enerji ve yeşil imalata bağlayacak hedefli yeniden beceri kazandırma programlarını, bölgesel çeşitlendirmeyi yenilenebilir enerji merkezleriyle yönetecek bölgesel dönüşüm ajanslarını, ücret sübvansiyonları ve taşınabilir haklar gibi sosyal güvenlik ağlarını, fosil yakıt sübvansiyonlarının yönlendirilmesiyle finanse edilecek bir Ulusal Adil Dönüşüm Fonu’nu ve sendikalar, yerel yönetimler ve toplulukları kapsayan katılımcı yönetişimi gerektirmektedir. Küresel en iyi uygulamaların yerel sosyo-ekonomik gerçeklerle harmanlanmasıyla Türkiye, iklim hedeflerini emek eşitliği ve bölgesel dirençlilikle uzlaştırarak yükselen ekonomiler için bir model olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Adil Dönüşüm
• istihdam etkileri
• girdi-çıktı analizi
• kömürden çıkış
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Abbass, K., Qasim, M. Z., Song, H., Murshed, M., Mahmood, H., & Younis, I. (2022). A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29, 42539-42559. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19718-6
2. Arora, A., & Schroeder, H. (2022). How to avoid unjust energy transitions: Insights from the Ruhr region. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13705-022-00345-5
3. Avcı, D., Acar, S., Adaman, F., & Uncu, B. A. (2022). Net Sıfıra Giden Yolda Adil Dönüşüm İçin Yol Haritası Önerisi. WWF-Türkiye, S360. https://wwftr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/acil_donusum_cozunurlukdusuk.pdf
4. Avınca, E. (2019). Türkiye'de enerji sektörü: Girdi-çıktı analizi. https://hdl.handle.net/11454/60897
5. Ayhan, S., & Çelik, C. (2024). UNVEILING THE JUST TRANSITION: POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND DESCRIPTIVE DATA INSIGHTS FOR COAL MINERS IN TÜRKIYE. IPC-Mercator Analysis. https://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Images/CKeditorImages/20240528-10050775.pdf
6. Baysal, B. (2024). ANALYZING CLIMATE SECURITY PERCEPTIONS IN TÜRKİYE: TOWARD A JUST SECURITIZATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE. Istanbul Policy Center-Sabancı University-Stiftung Mercator Initiative. https://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Images/CKeditorImages/20241223-12122489.pdf
7. Bell, I., & Katz-Rosene, R. (2024). The contested futures of just transition in Canada's energy sector. Studies in Political Economy, 105(2), 161-173. https://doi.org/10.1080/07078552.2024.2373587
8. Bray, R., Montero, A. M., & Ford, R. (2022). Skills deployment for a 'just' net zero energy transition. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 42, 395-408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2022.02.002

9. CAN Europe. (2019). İKLİM DOSTU BİR EKONOMİYE ADİL DÖNÜŞÜM NASIL GERÇEKLEŞEBİLİR? Fosil Yakıt Merkezli Enerji Üretiminden Düşük Karbonluya Adil Geçişin Örneklerle Açıklaması. https://caneurope.org/content/uploads/2019/12/TR_JTbriefing_Final_16.12.pdf
10. Cerny, Martin & Bruckner, Martin & Weinzettel, Jan & Wiebe, Kirsten & Kimmich, Christian & Kerschner, Christian & Klaus, Hubacek. (2022). Employment effects of the renewable energy transition in the electricity sector: An input-output approach. SSRN Electronic Journal. 10.2139/ssrn.4013339.
11. Christ, C. F. (1955). A Review of Input-Output Analysis. Princeton University Press. https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c2866/c2866.pdf
12. Cock, J. (2019). Resistance to coal inequalities and the possibilities of a just transition in South Africa. Development Southern Africa, 36(6), 860-873. https://doi.org/10.1080/0376835X.2019.1660859
13. Deshpande, Z., & Mertins-Kirkwood, H. (2019). Who is included in a Just Transition?: Considering social equity in Canada's shift to a zero-carbon economy [Unpublished manuscript].
14. Europe Beyond Coal, CAN Europe, Sürdürülebilir Ekonomi ve Finans Araştırmaları Derneği (SEFİA), WWF Türkiye, Greenpeace Akdeniz, İklim Değişikliği Politika ve Araştırma Derneği, 350.org, & APLUS Enerji. (2021). Karbon Nötr Yolunda İlk Adım: Kömürden Çıkış 2030. https://turkiyedekomur.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Ko%CC%88mu%CC%88rden-C%CC%A7ikis%CC%A7-2030.pdf
15. Franssen, M. M., & Holemans, D. (2021). Yeşil ve Sosyal Bir Adil Geçiş için İklim, İstihdam ve Adalet. https://gef.eu/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/GEF_just-transition-paper-turkish_final-3.pdf
16. Furnaro, A., Herpich, P., Brauers, H., Oei, P. Y., Kemfert, C., & Look, W. (2021). German just transition: A review of public policies to assist German coal communities in transition. Environmental Research Fund.
17. Galgóczi, B. (2014). The long and winding road from black to green: Decades of structural change in the Ruhr region. International Journal of Labour Research, 6(2), 217-240.
18. Ghaleigh, N. S. (2019). Just transitions for workers: When climate change met labour justice. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3456148
19. Garrett-Peltier, H. (2017). Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model. Economic Modelling, 61(c), 439-447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.012
20. Greenberg, P. (2018). Coal waste, socioeconomic change, and environmental inequality in Appalachia: Implications for a just transition in coal country. Society & Natural Resources, 31(9), 995-1011. https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2018.1456593
21. Güler, C., & Demirkaya, S. (2024). Sendikalar ve Adil Geçiş Mevcut Durum, Potansiyel ve Kısıtlar. CAN Europe - DİSK. https://caneurope.org/content/uploads/2024/04/Sendikalar-ve-Adil-Gecis_web_Full-report-Turkish.pdf
22. Gürtler, K., Löw Beer, D., & Herberg, J. (2021). Scaling just transitions: Legitimation strategies in coal phase-out commissions in Canada and Germany. Political Geography, 88, 102406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2021.102406
23. Harris, D. M., & McCarthy, J. (2023). A just transition to what, for whom, and by what means? Transition technology, carbon markets, and an Appalachian coal mine. Energy Research & Social Science, 106, 103307. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103307
24. Hearn, A., & Castaño-Rosa, R. (2021). Towards a just energy transition, barriers and opportunities for positive energy district creation in Spain. Sustainability, 13(16), 8698-8716. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13168698
25. Instituto Para la Transicion Justa (ITJ). (2023, May). Spain, 4 Years Towords a Just Energy Transition. https://www.transicionjusta.gob.es/content/dam/itj/files-1/Documents/Publicaciones%20ES%20y%20EN/Spain_4%20years%20towards%20a%20just%20energy%20transition.pdf
26. International Energy Agency. (2024). World Energy Employment 2024. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/54ed2968-172c-4a55-acf5-cd6cdf298b35/WorldEnergyEmployment2024.pdf
27. IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 35-115. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
28. Karkacıer, O. & Bölük, G. (2017). THE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENERGY SECTORS in TURKEY: AN INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL. Al Farabi Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 289-305.
29. Kenfack, C. E. (2019). Just transition at the intersection of labour and climate justice movements: Lessons from the Portuguese Climate Jobs Campaign. Global Labour Journal, 10(3). https://doi.org/10.15173/glj.v10i3.3631
30. Lazer, L. (2021, April 6). A just transition to a zero-carbon world is possible. here's how. World Resources Institute. https://www.wri.org/insights/just-transition-zero-carbon-world-possible-heres-how
31. Leontief, W. (1986). Input-Output Economics. Oxford University Press.
32. Markandya, A., Iñaki Arto, Mikel González-Eguino, Maria V. Román. (2016). Towards a green energy economy? Tracking the employment effects of low-carbon technologies in the European Union. Applied Energy, 179: 1342-1350. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.122.
33. Męczyński, M., & Ciesiółka, P. (2022). Regional green transition: Cases of Polish and Russian regions. Quaestiones Geographicae, 41(4), 165-177. https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2022-0036
34. Montt, G., Fraga, F., & Harsdorff, M. (2018). The future of work in a changing natural environment: Climate change, degradation and sustainability. International Labour Organization. https://www.ilo.org/media/415211/download
35. Montt G, Wiebe KS, Harsdorff M, Simas M, Bonnet A & Wood, R. (2018) Does climate action destroy jobs? An assessment of the employment implications of the 2-degree goal. Int Labour Rev., 157(4):519–556
36. Moskwa-Bęczkowska, D. (2024). Green transition in Poland - opportunities and threats. Scientific Papers of Silesian University of Technology Organization and Management Series, 204. https://doi.org/10.29119/1641-3466.2024.204.25
37. Nowakowska, A., Rzeńca, A., & Sobol, A. (2021). Place-based policy in the "Just transition" process: The case of polish coal regions. Land, 10(10), 1072-1097. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10101072
38. Otlhogile, M., & Shirley, R. (2023). The evolving just transition: Definitions, context, and practical insights for Africa. Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability, 3(1), 013001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ac9a69
39. Özen, E. N., & Aşık, G. (2023). Kömüre Dayalı İstihdamdan Çıkış: Sorun Alanları ve Çözüm Önerileri. CAN Europe & SEFIA. https://sefia.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/komure-dayali-istihdamdan-cikis-web.pdf
40. Özenç, B. (2022). Enerji Dönüşümünde Ana Eksen: Adil Dönüşüm, Tanımlar, Prensipler, Uygulamalar ve Türkiye'deki Durum. SHURA Energy Transition Center. https://www.shura.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/ SHURA-2022-09-Enerji-Donusumunde-Ana-Eksen-Adil-Donusum.pdf
41. Özenç, B., & Aşık, G. (2024). Adil Dönüşüm ve Bölgesel İstihdam: Türkiye İçin Politika Seçenekleri. SHURA Energy Transition Center. https://shura.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SHURA-EDM-Adil-Donusum-ve-Bolgesel-Istihdam-Turkiye-Icin-Politika-Secenekleri-27.06.2024.pdf
42. Pollin, R. (2023). Fossil Fuel Industry Phase-Out and Just Transition: Designing Policies to Protect Workers' Living Standards. Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, 24(4), 539-568. https://doi.org/10.1080/19452829.2023.2241840
43. Portakal, C., Tamcı, I., & Acar, S. (2024). Adil Geçişi Planlamak: Yeşil Dönüşümü Adil Kılmak İçin Bir Çerçeve Önerisi. *Ekonomi-Tek, 13*(2), 160-182. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ekonomitek/issue/87147/1504507
44. SGK. (2023). Statistics for 2023. https://www.sgk.gov.tr/Istatistik/Yillik/fcd5e59b-6af9-4d90-a451-ee7500eb1cb4/
45. Śniegocki, A., Wasilewski, M., Zygmunt, I., & Look, W. (2022). Just transition in Poland: a review of public policies to assist polish coal communities in transition. Resources for the Future (RFF)/Environmental Defense Fund (EDF).
46. Stevis, D., & Felli, R. (2015). Global labour unions and just transition to a green economy. International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, 15, 29-43. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-014-9266-1
47. Strambo, C., Burton, J., & Atteridge, A. (2019). The end of coal? Planning a "just transition" in South Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute.
48. Swilling, M., Musango, J., & Wakeford, J. (2015). Developmental states and sustainability transitions: Prospects of a just transition in South Africa. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 18(5), 650-672. https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2015.1107716
49. Şahin, Ü., Tör, O. B., Kat, B., Teimourzadeh, S., Demirkol, K., Künar, A., Voyvoda, E., & Yeldan, E. (2022). Türkiye'nin Karbonsuzlaşma Yol Haritası: 2050'de Net Sıfır. Istanbul Policy Center. https://ipc.sabanciuniv.edu/Content/Images/CKeditorImages/20220220-22020792.pdf
50. Taşcı, K., & Yılmaz, M. (2024). Türkiye Merkez-Çevre Çok Bölgeli Girdi-Çıktı (MRIO) Modeli ile Bölgesel ve Sektörel Yapısal Bağınlaşma Analizi (2006-2021). Verimlilik Dergisi, 58(3), 375-398. https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1484691
51. Theodoropoulou, S., Sabato, S., & Akgüç, M. (2024). National eco-social policies in the framework of EU Just transition: The cases of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. Global Social Policy. https://doi.org/10.1177/14680181241291122
52. Thompson, S. (2022). Green Renewable Power and policy in Canada: A just energy transition to net-zero. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 10(3), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2022.103001
53. UNDP. (2023). Navigating the path to a just transition: Employment implications of China’s just transition. https://www.undp.org/china/publications/navigating‐path‐just‐transition‐employment‐implications‐chinas‐just‐transition‐executive‐summary
54. Unroe, C. (2021). SOCIAL MOVEMENT LEARNING ABOUT JUST TRANSITION IN CENTRAL APPALACHIA [Doctoral dissertation]. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.17598.41281
55. While, A., & Eadson, W. (2021). Zero carbon as economic restructuring: Spatial Divisions of Labour and just transition. New Political Economy, 27(3), 385-402. https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1967909
56. Wilgosh, B., Sorman, A. H., & Barcena, I. (2022). When two movements collide: Learning from labour and environmental struggles for future just transitions. Futures, 137, 102903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2022.102903
57. Yardımcıoğlu, D. (2024). İklim Değişikliğinin Çalışma Hayatına Etkileriyle Mücadele: Adil Bir Geçiş için Toplu İş Hukuku Düzenlemelerinden Yararlanılması. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(1), 467-511. https://doi.org/10.33717/deuhfd.1383496
58. Yeldan, E., Acar, S., & Aşıcı, A. (2020). Ekonomik Göstergeler Merceğinden Yeni İklim Rejimi. TÜSİAD Araştırma Raporu. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.30696.499285