Beşeri Sermaye Hipotezinin Sınırında: Türkiye’de İşsizlik Üzerine PCA-ARDL Bulguları (2001-2022)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, beşerî sermaye hipotezinin Türkiye örneğinde geçerliliğini 2001-2022 dönemi için incelemektedir. Beşerî sermaye hipotezi, eğitim, sağlık ve beceri yatırımlarının işgücü verimliliğini artırarak işsizliği azaltacağını varsaymaktadır. Çalışmada, yüksek çoklu doğrusal bağlantıyı azaltmak ve kavramsal tutarlılığı güçlendirmek amacıyla eğitim, sağlık ve demografik göstergelerden Beşerî Sermaye Endeksi (HUMAN_PC); büyüme, sanayi payı, Ar-Ge ve işgücü göstergelerinden ise Ekonomik Gelişme Endeksi (ECON_PC) Temel Bileşenler Analizi (PCA) ile oluşturulmuştur. Ardından ADF birim kök testleri ve ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, HUMAN_PC ile işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmadığını; buna karşılık ECON_PC ile işsizlik arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de son yirmi yılda tartışılan istihdamsız büyüme olgusuyla uyumludur; ekonomik gelişme göstergelerindeki artışların işsizlik oranında kalıcı bir azalış üretmediği görülmektedir. Bulgular ayrıca, beşerî sermaye yatırımlarının Türkiye’de işsizliği azaltma kapasitesinin sınırlı kaldığını ve bu ilişkinin eğitim-istihdam uyumu, teknolojik dönüşüm ve kurumsal yapı gibi faktörlerden etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de işsizlik dinamiklerinin yalnızca beşerî sermaye birikimiyle açıklanamayacağını; ekonomik gelişmenin niteliği, üretim yapısı ve teknolojik dönüşüm süreçlerinin de belirleyici bir rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Beşeri Sermaye
• İşsizlik
• ARDL Sınır Testi
• Temel Bileşenler Analizi

At the Limits of the Human Capital Hypothesis: PCA-ARDL Evidence on Unemployment in Turkey (2001–2022)

Abstract

This study examines the validity of the human capital hypothesis in the case of Türkiye for the period 2001–2022. The human capital hypothesis assumes that investments in education, health, and skills increase labor productivity and thereby reduce unemployment. In the study, a Human Capital Index (HUMAN_PC) was constructed from education, health, and demographic indicators, while an Economic Development Index (ECON_PC) was constructed from growth, industrial share, R&D, and labor force indicators through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to reduce high multicollinearity and strengthen conceptual consistency. Subsequently, ADF unit root tests and the ARDL bounds testing approach were applied. The findings indicate that there is no long-run cointegration relationship between HUMAN_PC and unemployment, whereas a positive and significant long-run relationship exists between ECON_PC and unemployment. The results are consistent with the jobless growth phenomenon discussed in Türkiye over the last two decades, indicating that increases in economic development indicators do not produce a permanent decline in the unemployment rate. The findings also suggest that the capacity of human capital investments to reduce unemployment in Türkiye has remained limited and that this relationship is affected by factors such as education-employment mismatch, technological transformation, and institutional structure. The study reveals that unemployment dynamics in Türkiye cannot be explained solely by human capital accumulation and that the nature of economic development, production structure, and processes of technological transformation also play a significant role.

Keywords

• Human Capital
• Unemployment
• ARDL Bounds Test
• Principal Component Analysis

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