Beşeri Sermaye Hipotezinin Sınırında: Türkiye’de İşsizlik Üzerine PCA-ARDL Bulguları (2001-2022)

Öz

Bu çalışma, beşerî sermaye hipotezinin Türkiye örneğinde geçerliliğini 2001-2022 dönemi için incelemektedir. Beşerî sermaye hipotezi, eğitim, sağlık ve beceri yatırımlarının işgücü verimliliğini artırarak işsizliği azaltacağını varsaymaktadır. Çalışmada, yüksek çoklu doğrusal bağlantıyı azaltmak ve kavramsal tutarlılığı güçlendirmek amacıyla eğitim, sağlık ve demografik göstergelerden Beşerî Sermaye Endeksi (HUMAN_PC); büyüme, sanayi payı, Ar-Ge ve işgücü göstergelerinden ise Ekonomik Gelişme Endeksi (ECON_PC) Temel Bileşenler Analizi (PCA) ile oluşturulmuştur. Ardından ADF birim kök testleri ve ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, HUMAN_PC ile işsizlik arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi bulunmadığını; buna karşılık ECON_PC ile işsizlik arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir uzun dönem ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlar, Türkiye’de son yirmi yılda tartışılan istihdamsız büyüme olgusuyla uyumludur; ekonomik gelişme göstergelerindeki artışların işsizlik oranında kalıcı bir azalış üretmediği görülmektedir. Bulgular ayrıca, beşerî sermaye yatırımlarının Türkiye’de işsizliği azaltma kapasitesinin sınırlı kaldığını ve bu ilişkinin eğitim-istihdam uyumu, teknolojik dönüşüm ve kurumsal yapı gibi faktörlerden etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Çalışma, Türkiye’de işsizlik dinamiklerinin yalnızca beşerî sermaye birikimiyle açıklanamayacağını; ekonomik gelişmenin niteliği, üretim yapısı ve teknolojik dönüşüm süreçlerinin de belirleyici bir rol oynadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Beşeri Sermaye
• İşsizlik
• ARDL Sınır Testi
• Temel Bileşenler Analizi

At the Limits of the Human Capital Hypothesis: PCA-ARDL Evidence on Unemployment in Turkey (2001–2022)

Öz

This study examines the validity of the human capital hypothesis in the case of Türkiye for the period 2001–2022. The human capital hypothesis assumes that investments in education, health, and skills increase labor productivity and thereby reduce unemployment. In the study, a Human Capital Index (HUMAN_PC) was constructed from education, health, and demographic indicators, while an Economic Development Index (ECON_PC) was constructed from growth, industrial share, R&D, and labor force indicators through Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in order to reduce high multicollinearity and strengthen conceptual consistency. Subsequently, ADF unit root tests and the ARDL bounds testing approach were applied. The findings indicate that there is no long-run cointegration relationship between HUMAN_PC and unemployment, whereas a positive and significant long-run relationship exists between ECON_PC and unemployment. The results are consistent with the jobless growth phenomenon discussed in Türkiye over the last two decades, indicating that increases in economic development indicators do not produce a permanent decline in the unemployment rate. The findings also suggest that the capacity of human capital investments to reduce unemployment in Türkiye has remained limited and that this relationship is affected by factors such as education-employment mismatch, technological transformation, and institutional structure. The study reveals that unemployment dynamics in Türkiye cannot be explained solely by human capital accumulation and that the nature of economic development, production structure, and processes of technological transformation also play a significant role.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Human Capital
• Unemployment
• ARDL Bounds Test
• Principal Component Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). Artificial intelligence, automation and work (NBER Working Paper No. 24196). National Bureau of Economic Research.
2. Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2019). Automation and new tasks: How technology displaces and reinstates labor. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 3-30.
3. Akpınar, T. (2018). Türkiye'de işsizliğe resmi çözüm önerileri bağlamında beşerî sermaye teorisine ilişkin bir yeniden değerlendirme. Çalışma ve Toplum, 2(57), 787-800.
4. Akyazı, T., Goti, A., Oyarbide, A., Alberdi, E., & Bayon, F. (2020). A guide for the food industry to meet the future skills requirements emerging with Industry 4.0. Foods, 9(4), 492.
5. Albayrak, N., Abdioğlu, Z. (2020). Beşerî sermaye tahmini: Gizli değişken yaklaşımı. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 18(36), 225-254.
6. Alp, E., Karadeniz, O., Çağlar, A., & İslamoğlu, E. (2023). Does extending the internship period in vocational schools of higher education lead to better employment results?: The case of Turkey. Education + Training, 65(3), 357-381.
7. Araki, S., & Kariya, T. (2022). Credential inflation and decredentialization: Re-examining the mechanism of the devaluation of degrees. European Sociological Review, 38(6), 904-919.
8. Arteaga, C. (2016). Signaling versus human capital: Evidence from a curriculum reform. Journal of Human Resources, 53(4), 993-1026.

9. Arthur-Holmes, F., Busia, K. A., Vazquez-Brust, D. A., & Yakovleva, N. (2022). Graduate unemployment, artisanal and small-scale mining, and rural transformation in Ghana: What does the ‘educated’ youth involvement offer? Journal of Rural Studies, 95, 125-139.
10. Auerbach, P., Green, F. (2024). Reformulating the critique of human capital theory. Journal of Economic Surveys.
11. Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are there still so many jobs? The history and future of workplace automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-30.
12. Barrera-Osorio, F., García, S., Maldonado, D., Rodríguez, C. (2019). Signaling or better human capital: Evidence from Colombia. Journal of Public Economics, 172, 63-77.
13. Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.
14. Bassanini, A., Duval, R. (2006). Employment patterns in OECD countries: Reassessing the role of policies and institutions. OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 486. OECD Publishing.
15. Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis with special reference to education. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
16. Blanchard, O., & Wolfers, J. (2000). The role of shocks and institutions in the rise of European unemployment: the aggregate evidence. The economic journal, 110(462), 1-33.
17. Blaug, M. (1976). The empirical status of human capital theory: A slightly jaundiced survey. Journal of Economic Literature, 14(3), 827-855.
18. Bowles, S., Gintis, H. (1975). The problem with human capital theory: A Marxian critique. The American Economic Review, 65(2), 74-82.
19. Brown, P., Lauder, H., Ashton, D. (2011). The global auction: The broken promises of education, jobs, and incomes. New York: Oxford University Press.
20. Brown, P., Lauder, H., Cheung, S. Y. (2020). The death of human capital? Its failed promise and how to renew it in an age of disruption. New York: Oxford University Press.
21. Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Akıllı Teknolojiler Devrinde Çalışma, İlerleme ve Refah. İstanbul: Türk Hava Yolları Yayınları.
22. Butkus, M., Dargenytė-Kačilevičienė, L., Matuzevičiūtė, K., Ruplienė, D., & Šeputienė, J. (2024). When and for whom does growth become jobless? Economies, 12(1), 19.
23. Cafrı, R. (2026). NEET olgusu bağlamında genç işsizliği: Türkiye’de makroekonomik ve sosyo-demografik dinamikler. Çalışma ve Toplum, 2026(2), 595-620.
24. Cassidy, H., & Gaulke, A. (2023). The increasing penalty to occupation-education mismatch (IZA Discussion Paper No. 16079). IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
25. Clark, G., Nielsen, C. A. A. (2024). The returns to education: a meta-study (No. 249). EHES Working Paper. Collins, R. (2019). The credential society: An historical sociology of education and stratification. New York: Columbia University Press.
26. Cui, Y., Martins, P. S. (2021). What drives social returns to education? A meta-analysis (No. 14332). IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
27. Cunha, F., Heckman, J. J. (2007). The technology of skill formation. American Economic Review, 97(2), 31-47. ÇASGEM. (2019). Uyumsuz eşleşme olgusu: Türkiye İşgücü Piyasası Örneği. Ankara: Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Eğitim ve Araştırma Merkezi.
28. Çelik Gönültaş, M., & Özbek, Ç. (2026). New members of the proletariat: A qualitative study of the over-educated. Researches on Multidisciplinary Approaches, 2026(1).
29. Dale, S., & Krueger, A. B. (2011). Estimating the return to college selectivity over the career using administrative earnings data (No. w17159). National Bureau of Economic Research.
30. Didier, N. (2021). Are we ready? Labour market transit to the digital economy. Journal of Adult and Continuing Education, 0(0), 1-25.
31. Doğru, H. E. (2024). University-Industrial Complex as a spatial fix for local development: Massification of Higher Education in Turkey. Geoforum, 149, 103965.
32. Dünya Bankası. (2025). World Development Indicators (WDI) [Data set]. World Bank. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators.
33. Esposito, P., & Scicchitano, S. (2022). Educational mismatch and labour market transitions in Italy: Is there an unemployment trap? Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 61, 138-155.
34. Focacci, C. N. (2021). Technological unemployment, robotisation, and green deal: A story of unstable spillovers in China and South Korea (2008-2018). Technology in Society, 64.
35. Frey, C. B., Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
36. Giliç, F., & İnandı, Y. (2026). Aligning vocational and technical education with labor market demands in a knowledge-based economy: a case study of Türkiye. Education+ Training, 1-20.
37. Gujarati, D. N., Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. Boston: McGraw-Hill Irwin.
38. Haider, A., Jabeen, S., Rankaduwa, W., & Shaheen, F. (2023). The nexus between employment and economic growth: A cross-country analysis. Sustainability, 15.
39. Hanushek, E. A., Schwerdt, G., Wiederhold, S., Woessmann, L. (2015). Returns to skills around the world: Evidence from PIAAC. European Economic Review, 73, 103-130.
40. Hanushek, E. A., Woessmann, L. (2008). The role of cognitive skills in economic development. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(3), 607-668.
41. Hanushek, E. A., Woessmann, L. (2012). Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation. Journal of Economic Growth, 17(4), 267-321.
42. Heckman, J. J., Lochner, L. J., Todd, P. E. (2006a). Earnings functions, rates of return and treatment effects: The Mincer equation and beyond. Handbook of the Economics of Education, 1, 307-458.
43. Heckman, J. J., Stixrud, J., Urzua, S. (2006b). The effects of cognitive and noncognitive abilities on labor market outcomes and social behavior. Journal of Labor Economics, 24(3), 411-482.
44. Hötte, K., Somers, M., & Theodorakopoulos, A. (2023). Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 196, 122828.
45. Huntington-Klein, N. (2020). Human capital vs. signaling is empirically unresolvable. Economics of Education Review, 91.
46. Jolliffe, I. T. (2002). Principal component analysis, second edition. New York: Springer.
47. Jones, G., Schneider, W. J. (2006). Intelligence, human capital, and economic growth: A Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) approach. Journal of Economic Growth, 11(1), 71-93.
48. Jones, M., Kaya, E., Nan, J. (2024). Overeducation, earnings and job satisfaction among graduates in China (No. 17161). IZA Institute of Labor Economics.
49. Kang, C., Hong, S. (2025). Educational mismatch, skills, and wage penalty: Evidence from US heterogeneous labor. Sage Open, 15(4).
50. Kang, Y., & Mok, K. H. (2022). The broken promise of human capital theory: Social embeddedness, graduate entrepreneurs and youth employment in China. Critical Sociology, 48(7-8), 1205-1219.
51. Kantarmacı, S., Demiroğları, S., Erk, H., & Üçdoğruk-Birecikli, Ş. (2021). Türkiye işgücü piyasasında bireylerin aşırı eğitimliliğinin ölçülmesi: İki değişkenli probit model uygulaması. Sosyoekonomi, 29(48), 271-292.
52. Karahasan, B. C., & Bilgel, F. (2020). Market access and regional dispersion of human capital accumulation in Turkey. Review of Development Economics, 24(4), 1647-1670.
53. Kraay, A. (2019). The World Bank human capital index: a guide. The World Bank Research Observer, 34(1), 1-33.
54. Kripfganz, S., & Schneider, D. C. (2020). Response surface regressions for critical value bounds and approximate p-values in equilibrium correction models. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82(6), 1456-1481.
55. Kulakoğlu, B., & Kondakçı, Y. (2023). STEM education as a concept borrowing issue: Perspectives of school administrators in Turkey. ECNU Review of Education, 6(1), 84-104.
56. Kurnaz Baltacı, I. (2023). Kayıp potansiyel, gizli maliyet: İşgücü Piyasasında nitelik uyumsuzluğu. Politika Notları 56.
57. Leuven, E., & Oosterbeek, H. (2011). Overeducation and mismatch in the labor market (IZA Discussion Paper No. 5523). Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
58. Lim, S. S., Updike, R. L., & others. (2018). Measuring human capital: A systematic analysis of 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016. The Lancet, 392(10154), 1217-1234.
59. Livingstone, D. W. (2018). The education-jobs gap: Underemployment or economic democracy. New York: Routledge.
60. Lucas, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
61. Ma, X., Iwasaki, I. (2021). Return to schooling in China: A large meta-analysis. Education Economics, 29(4), 379-410.
62. MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
63. Marginson, S. (2017). Limitations of human capital theory. Studies in Higher Education, 44(2), 287-301. Marx, K. (2020). Kapital. İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
64. Mavromaras, K., & McGuinness, S. (2007). Education and skill mismatches in the labour market: Editors’ introduction. The Australian Economic Review, 40(3), 279-285.
65. McGuinness, S. (2006). Overeducation in the labour market. Journal of Economic Surveys, 20(3), 387-418. Mincer, J. A. (1974). Schooling, experience, and earnings. National Bureau of Economic Research.
66. Narayan, P. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: an application to the tourism demand model for Fiji (Vol. 2, No. 04). Australia: Monash University.
67. Nickell, S. (1997). Unemployment and labor market rigidities: Europe versus North America. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(3), 55-74.
68. Nickell, S. (1998). Unemployment: Questions and some answers. The Economic Journal, 108(448), 802-816.
69. OECD. (1998). Human capital investment: An international comparison. OECD Publishing.
70. OECD. (2019). OECD skills outlook 2019: Thriving in a digital world. Paris: OECD Publishing.
71. OECD. (2023). OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market. Paris: OECD Publishing.
72. OECD. (2025). OECD Data Portal [Data set]. OECD. https://data.oecd.org/
73. Öksüz, M. (2023). Eğitim harcamaları ile cinsiyete göre genç işsizlik ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 21(49), 459-481.
74. Özdemir, M. O., Metin Özcan, K., & Üçdoğruk Birecikli, Ş. (2026). What makes Turkish youth NEET? Journal of Youth Studies, 29(3), 366-384.
75. Padhi, B., & Panda, S. (2021). Employment and economic growth dynamics in Odisha, India. Journal of Public Affairs, 21(2), e2168.
76. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
77. Pissarides, C. A. (2000). Equilibrium unemployment theory. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
78. Psacharopoulos, G., Patrinos, H. A. (2004). Returns to investment in education: A further update. Education Economics, 12(2), 111-134.
79. Rahimpour, K., Shirouyehzad, H., Asadpour, M., Karbasian, M. (2020). A PCA-DEA method for organizational performance evaluation based on intellectual capital and employee loyalty: A case study. Journal of Modelling in Management, 15(4), 1479-1513.
80. Reimer, D., Noelke, C., & Kucel, A. (2008). Labor market effects of field of study in comparative perspective: An analysis of 22 European countries. International Journal of Comparative Sociology, 49(4-5), 233-256.
81. Riddell, W. C., Song, X. (2011). The impact of education on unemployment incidence and re-employment success: Evidence from the U.S. labour market. Labour Economics, 18(4), 453-463.
82. Romer, P. M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5, Part 2), 71-102.
83. Schultz, T. W. (1961). Investment in human capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), 1-17.
84. Schultz, T. W. (1975). The value of the ability to deal with disequilibria. Journal of Economic Literature, 13(3), 827-846.
85. Sevilla, M.-P., & Farías, M. (2020). Labour market mismatch in emerging countries: The case of Chile. Compare: A Journal of Comparative and International Education, 50(2), 276-293.
86. Smith, A. (2020). Milletlerin zenginliği: Doğası ve nedenleri üzerine bir inceleme. İstanbul: Liberus Kitap.
87. Sofuoğlu, E., Kartal, M. (2023). Gelir, dış ticaret ve beşerî sermayenin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Üçüncü Sektör Sosyal Ekonomi Dergisi, 58(4), 3135-3150.
88. Spence, M. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355-374.
89. Şentürk Ulucak, Z. (2022). Kamu sektörünün beşerî sermaye birikimindeki rolünün analiz edilmesi: Türkiye örneği. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(1), 91-107.
90. Şentürk, İ. (2020). Türkiye’de işsizlerin emek arzı isteği. Sosyoekonomi, 28(43), 277-294.
91. Tan, E. (2014). Human capital theory: A holistic criticism. Review of Educational Research, 84(3), 411-445.
92. Tavakoli, M. M., Shirouyehzad, H. (2013). Application of PCA/DEA method to evaluate the performance of human capital management: A case study. Journal of Data Envelopment Analysis and Decision Science.
93. Teixeira, P. N. (2014). Gary Becker’s early work on human capital - Collaborations and distinctiveness. IZA Journal of Labor Economics, 3(1), 12.
94. TÜİK. (2025). İşgücü İstatistikleri. TÜİK Veri Portalı. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/
95. Verenikin, A. O., Verenikina, A. Y., Finley, J. T., Tyrkba, K. V., & Melanina, M. V. (2023). Human capital for sustainable regional development. Economic Studies Journal (Ikonomicheski Izsledvania), 32(4), 54-69.
96. Vivarelli, M. (2014). Innovation, employment and skills in advanced and developing countries: A survey of economic literature. Journal of Economic Issues, 48(1), 123-154.
97. Wang, B., & Wang, J. (2025). Empirical analysis of the impact of regional comprehensive development factors on human capital. In Proceedings of 2024 4th International Conference on Public Management and Big Data Analysis (PMBDA 2024). (Vol. 318, p. 395).
98. Warsame, Z. A., & Mohamed, I. S. A. (2024). On the determinants of unemployment in Somalia: What is the role of external debt? International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 19(1), 161-165.
99. Wooldridge, J. M. (2016). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Boston: Cengage.
100. World Bank. (2018). The changing wealth of nations 2018: Building a sustainable future. World Bank.