Development of Machine Learning based Cash Forecasting Models for Automated Teller Machines

Year 2025, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 35 - 44, 30.06.2025

Uygar Er , Ceren Ulus , Nazlı Yusufoğlu , Mehmet Fatih Akay

https://doi.org/10.70395/cunas.1680866

Abstract

Nowadays, Automatic Teller Machines (ATMs) stand out as bank instruments where a high percentage of cash transactions take place. Accurately determining the amount of cash to be kept in ATMs is considered a strategic necessity for banks in terms of preventing service disruptions and maximizing customer satisfaction. Cash forecasting ensures that the amount of cash to be kept in ATMs is determined accurately. The aim of this study is to optimize cash management by forecasting daily cash demand in ATMs and thus help financial institutions prevent inefficiencies caused by cash depletion in ATMs and reduce customer dissatisfaction and operational costs. To achieve this, cash forecasting models have been developed using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The performance of the models has been evaluated with the Percentage Error (PE) metric. The developed models provided error values lower than 15%. A comprehensive evaluation has shown that accurate cash forecasts significantly increase the effectiveness of cash management.

Keywords

Cash Forecasting , Cash Management , ATM , XGBoost

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