RUSSIAN EXODUS: MOBILITY AND GRAVITY

Abstract

The war between Russia and Ukraine has triggered large-scale internal and international displacement. This forced mobility has affected not only Ukrainians but also Russian citizens. Following President Putin’s announcement of partial military mobilization on 21 September 2022, a significant number of Russians fled the country to avoid conscription. This study focuses on the most preferred destination countries, specifically Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, Serbia, and Kazakhstan, examines the factors influencing migrants’ destination choices. It analyzes these preferences through the lens of socioeconomic, cultural, linguistic, and geographical factors, using the gravity model approach. Rooted in Newton’s Law of Gravitation, the gravity model is a migration theory that explains interactions between two locations based on factors such as distance and economic conditions. The study hypothesizes that the gravity model can effectively explain the settlement patterns of Russian migrants fleeing mobilization. Quantitative research methods will be employed, and data analysis will be conducted using SPSS software. This research aims to fill a significant gap in the literature, as there are currently only a limited number of studies addressing the migration triggered by Russia’s military mobilization. Moreover, no existing study has applied the gravity model to this specific case, making this project a unique contribution to the field of migration studies.

Keywords

• Military mobilisation
• Gravity approach
• Russian migrant
• Russian- Ukraine war

RUS GÖÇÜ: HAREKETLİLİK VE YERÇEKİMİ

Abstract

Rusya ile Ukrayna arasındaki savaş, hem iç hem de dış göçü tetikleyerek geniş çaplı bir yerinden edilme sürecine yol açmıştır. Bu süreçten yalnızca Ukraynalılar değil, Rus vatandaşları da etkilenmiştir. Özellikle, Putin’in 21 Eylül 2022’de kısmi askeri seferberlik ilan etmesinin ardından, çok sayıda Rus vatandaşı askere alınmamak için ülkeyi terk etmiştir. Bu çalışma, göç eden bireylerin en çok tercih ettiği ülkeler olan Türkiye, Gürcistan, Ermenistan, Sırbistan ve Kazakistan’a odaklanarak varış yeri tercihlerini incelemektedir. Bu tercihlerin ardında yatan sosyoekonomik, kültürel, dilsel ve coğrafi faktörler, çekim modeli yaklaşımı çerçevesinde analiz edilecektir. Kökleri Newton’un yerçekimi yasasına dayanan çekim modeli, iki konum arasındaki etkileşimi mesafe ve ekonomik koşullar gibi değişkenler üzerinden açıklayan bir göç teorisidir. Çalışma, bu yaklaşımın seferberlikten kaçan Rus göçmenlerin yerleşim tercihlerine ilişkin örüntüleri anlamada etkili olabileceği hipotezine dayanmaktadır. Araştırmada nicel yöntemler kullanılacak ve veri analizi SPSS programı aracılığıyla gerçekleştirilecektir. Bu çalışma, Rusya’nın askeri seferberliği sonucu ortaya çıkan göçü ele alan sınırlı sayıdaki çalışmalardan biri olmasının yanı sıra, çekim modeli yaklaşımını bu özgül duruma uygulayan ilk araştırma olma özelliğiyle de göç literatürüne özgün bir katkı sunmayı hedeflemektedir.

Keywords

• Askeri seferberlik
• Çekim Modeli
• Rus göçmen
• Rusya- Ukrayna savaşı

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53. Author Contribution Rate The researchers contributed equally to this study. The investigators did not declare any conflict of interest.
54. Ethics Committee Approval Since there is no human interaction in this study, obtaining an ethics committee approval document is not required.