Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Sektörel Analiz

Abstract

High inflation is an important concern of markets and policy makers Therefore lowering inflation and keeping inflation low is an important policy task A change in exchange rate may have an effect on domestic inflation Previous studies have shown that the pass through effect in Turkey is fast But there is not a unanimous agreement about the magnitude Previous studies about Turkey have used aggregate price indices which may cause some bias Using monthly and sectoral data this study shows that pass through in Turkey is fast and quit low Furthermore the reactions of different sectors are not homogeneous Pass through is especially low in non traded sectors such as agriculture food and drinks and housing Also there is a weak evidence showing that high exchange rate volatility is associated with higher inflation Key Words: Exchange rate inflation pass through sectors

Keywords

• -

Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Sektörel Analiz

Abstract

Yüksek enflasyon piyasalar ve politika yapıcıları için ciddi bir kaygı unsurudur Bu yüzden enflasyonu düşürmek ve düşük seviyelerde tutmak önemli bir politikadır Döviz kurdaki bir değişim yerel enflasyonu etkileyebilmektedir Türkiye ile ilgili önceki çalışmalarda elde edilen bulgular geçiş etkisinin hızlı olduğu şeklindedir Fakat bu etkinin niceliği hakkında görüş birliği oluşmamıştır Önceki çalışmalarda makro verilerin kullanılmış olması sonuçlarda bir sapma etkisi yaratmış olabilir Bu çalışmada sektörel veriler kullanılarak Türkiye 8217;de geçiş etkisinin hızlı ve oldukça düşük olduğu gösterilmektedir Ticarete söz konusu olan sektörlerde bu etki daha güçlü hizmet sektörü gibi ticarete söz konusu olmayan sektörlerde geçiş etkisinin daha zayıf olduğu bulunmuştur Ayrıca kur oynaklığının enflasyonu artırıcı ve geçiş etkisi üzerinde bir etkisinin olmadığı gösterilmiştir Anahtar Kelimeler: Döviz kuru enflasyon yansıma sektörler

Keywords

• Döviz kuru, enflasyon, yansıma, sektörler

References

1. Aldemir, Şenkan (2006), “Türkiye ekonomisinde döviz kurunun yurtiçi ithalat fiyatlarına geçiş etkisi: 1988-2004.” Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Dış Ticaret Politikaları, 1(2):53-78.
2. Arat, Kürşat (2003), “Türkiye’de Optimum Döviz Kuru Rejimi Seçimi ve Döviz Kurlarından Fiyatlara Geçiş Etkisinin İncelenmesi” Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Uzmanlık Tezi.
3. Arbatlı, Elif C. (2003), “Exchange Rate Pass Through in Turkey: Looking for Asymmetries,” Central Bank Review, 2: 85-124.
4. Calvo, Guillermo A. ve Carmen M. Reinhart (2002), “Fear of Floating.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(2): 379-408.
5. Campa, Jose´ Manuel ve Linda S. Goldberg (2005), “Exchange rate pass-through into import prices.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4): 679–690.
6. Carranza, Luis ve J. E. Galdón-Sánchez (2004), “Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in Dollarized Economies.”
7. Ca’ Zorzi Michele, Elke Hahn ve Marcelo Sánchez (2007), ”Exchange rate passthrough in emerging markets.” European Central Bank Working Paper N0739.
8. Choudhri, Ehsan U. ve Dalia S. Hakura (2006), “Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?” Journal of International Money and Finance, 25: 614-639.

9. Coricelli, Fabrizio, Bosˇtjan Jazbec ve Igor Masten (2006), “Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications.” Journal of Banking and Finance, 30:1375–1391.
10. Devereux, M., Engel, C. ve Storgaard, P. E. (2004), “Endogenous exchange rate pass- through when nominal prices are set in advance.” Journal of International Economics, 63: 263–91.
11. Faruqee, Hamid (2006), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area” IMF Staff Papers, 53 (1): 63-88.
12. Frankel, J., D. Parsley, ve S.J. Wei, (2005) “Slow Pass-through Around the World: a New Import for Developing Countries?” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No 11199.
13. Froot, Kenneth ve Paul Klemperer (1989), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through when Market Share Matters.” American Economic Review, 79 (4): 637-654.
14. Goldfajn, Ilan ve Sergio R. C. Werlang (2000), “The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study.”
15. Hellerstein, Rebecca, Deirdre Daly, ve Christina Marsh (2006), “Have U.S. Import Prices Become Less Responsive to Changes in the Dollar?” Fed of New York Current Issues in Economics and Finance, 12 (6): 1-7.
16. Ihrig, Jane E., Mario Marazzi ve Alexander D. Rothenberg (2006), “Exchange-Rate Pass-Through in the G-7 countries” FED International Finance Discussion Papers Number 851.
17. Ito, Takatoshi ve Kiyotaka Sato (2007), “Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Domestic Inflation: A Comparison between East Asia and Latin American Countries.”
18. Kara, H., H. Küçük Tuğer, Ü. Özlale, B. Tuğer, D. Yavuz ve E.M. Yücel (2007), “Exchange Rate Regimes and Pass-Through: Evidence from the Turkish Economy.” Contemporary Economic Policy, 25 (2): 206–225
19. Kara, H. ve F. Öğünç, 2005. “Exchange Rate Pass Through in Turkey: It is Slow, but is it Really Low?” TC Merkez Bankası Çalışma Makalesi No 05/10.
20. Leigh, D. ve M. Rossi, 2002. “Exchange Rate Pass Through in Turkey.” Uluslararası Para Fonu Çalışma Makalesi No. 02/204,.
21. McCarthy, J., (2000), “Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report No. 3.
22. McKenzie, Michael D. (1999), “The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows.” Journal of Economic Surveys, 13 (1): 71-106.
23. Mihaljek, D. ve Klau, M. (2000), “A Note on the Pass-Through from Exchange Rate and Foreign Price Changes to Inflation in Selected Emerging Market Economies,” BIS Papers, 8: 69-81.
24. Mumtaz, Haroon, Özlem Oomen ve Jian Wang (2006), “Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices.” Bank of England Working Paper no. 312.
25. Otani, Akira, Shigenori Shiratsuka ve Toyoichiro Shirota (2005), “Revisiting the Decline in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Further Evidence from Japan’s Import Prices.” Bank of Japan Discussion Paper No. 2005-E-6.
26. Perron, Pierre (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis.” Econometrica, 57: 1361-1401.
27. Webber, Anthony G. (1999), “Dynamic and long run responses of import prices to the exchange rate in the Asia-Pacific.” Asian Economic Journal, 13(3): 303-332.