PETROL FİYATININ GIDA FİYATLARI ÜZERİNE ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

2000'li yıllar itibariyle yaşanan gıda fiyatlarında artış eğilimi, bu konudaki akademik tartışmaların yaygınlaşmasına neden olmakla birlikte, hükümetleri sosyo-ekonomik çıkarımlar konusunda etkilemektedir. Gıda fiyat artışına yönelik politika önerileri ile gıda fiyatındaki değişimin belirleyicilerinin tespit edilmesi için çok sayıda çalışma yapılmıştır. Aynı yıllarda ham petrol fiyatının eşzamanlı artışıyla, petrol fiyatının bir açıklama olarak incelenmesi söz konusudur. Mevcut çalışma, devam etmekte olan bu araştırma konusunun bir parçasını oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, makalenin amacı Türkiye'de petrol fiyatının gıda fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini doğrusal olmayan otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikmeler (NARDL) modeli kullanarak ampirik olarak incelenmesidir. Analiz sonucunda, uzun vadede petrol fiyatı artışları ile gıda fiyatı arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilirken, petrol fiyatı azalışları ile gıda fiyatı arasında uzun dönemli ilişki bulunmamıştır.

Keywords

• Petrol Fiyatı
• Gıda Fİyatları
• NARDL

Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Food Prices: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Increasing trend in food prices since 2000s, it causes the widespread academic debate on this issue and affects the governments on socio-economic implications. Numerous studies have been carried out to determine the determinants of the change in food price and policy recommendations for food price increase. In the same years, with the simultaneous increase of the crude oil price, it is important to examine the oil price as an explanation. The current study is part of this ongoing research topic. Therefore, the aim of this is to examine the impact on food prices of oil prices in Turkey. In order to examine this impact, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is used to analyze the nonlinear relationships between variables. As a result of the analysis, while a positive and significant relationship is determined between oil price increases and food price in the long term, there is no long-term relationship between oil price decreases and food price.

Keywords

• Oil Prices
• Food Prices
• NARDL

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