Doğu Asya Ülkelerinde İhracat ve Döviz Kuru İlişkisi

Year 2014, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 285 - 300, 15.10.2014

Emine Aktunç Demirbaş

Abstract

Bu çalışmada da, ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisi benimseyen ve buna bağlı olarak da ekonomileri son yıllarda hızla büyüyen Doğu Asya ülkelerinin reel ihracatı üzerinde reel döviz kurunun ve ortalama GSYİH’nın etkisi araştırılmıştır. Panel veri analiz yönteminde tahmin edilen değişkenlere ait veri seti Çin, Endonezya, Güney Kore, Malezya, Filipinler ve Tayland ülkelerinin 2001-2012 dönemlerini kapsamaktadır. Sabit etkiler modeli ile tahmin edilen reel ihracat fonksiyonuna göre, reel döviz kuru ile reel ihracat ve ortalama GSYİH arasında anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki vardır. Yani reel döviz kurunda ya da ortalama GSYİH da meydana gelen bir artış, reel ihracatın da artmasına neden olmaktadır. Rassal etkiler modeli ile yapılan tahmin sonucunda ise reel ihracat ve ortalama GSYİH arasında anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiş ancak, reel ihracat ve reel döviz kuru arasında anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanamamıştır.

Keywords

Döviz Kuru Rejimleri, İhracat, Doğu Asya Ülkeleri, Panel Veri Analizi

References

• Abeysinghe, T.&Yeok, T. (1998). Exchange rate appreciation and export competitiveness. The case of Singapore. Applied Economics, 1998, 30, 51-55. Aristotelous, K. (2002). The impact of the post-1972 floating exchangerate regime on US exports. Applied Economics, 2002, 34, 1627±1632. Arize, A.C. (1994). Cointegration test of a long-run relation between the real effective exchange rate and the trade balance. International Economic Journal, 8. 1-9. Arize, A.C. (1996). Real Exchange Rate Volatality and Trade Flows: The Experience of Eight Europen Economies. International Review of Economics and Finance, 542:187-205. Arize, A.C., Osang, T. & Slottje, D. (2000). Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LCD’. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Vol. 18, No. 1 (Jan, 2000), pp. 10-17. Arize, A.C., Osang, T. & Slottje, D. (2008). Exchange-rate volatility in Latin America and its impact on foreign trade. International Review of Economics and Finance 17 (2008) 33–44. Baharumshah, A.Z. (1996). The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand. Asian Economic Journal, pp. 291-312. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (2001). Nominal and real effective exchange rates of Middle Eastern countries and their trade performance. Applied Economics, 33, 103-111. Bahmani- Oskooee, M. & Kantipong, T. (2001). Bilateral J-Curve Between Thailand and Her Trading Partners. Journal of Economic Development,Volume 26, Number 2, December 2001, pp.107-117. Bilquees, Mukhtar & Malik (2010). Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth: Evidence from Selected South Asian Countries. Zagreb International Review of Economics & Business, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 27-37, 2010. Campa, J. M. & Kedia, S. (2002). Explaining the diversification discount. The Journal of Finance, 57(4), 1731-1762. Chit, Rizou & Willenbockel (2010). Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies. The World Economy, pp.241-263. Cordova J. & Meissner, C. (2001). Exchange Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence From The Clssical Gold Standard Area. Center for International and Development Economics Research. pp.1-49. Cote, A. (1994). Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey. Bank of Canada Working Paper, No, 1994-5, pp.1-25. Doğanlar, M.(2002). Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on export: Evidence from Asian countries. Applied Economics Letters, 9, 2002, s.859-863. Frankel, J. A. (1999). No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times. pp.1-49. Frankel, J.A. & Rose, A.K. (2000). Estimating The Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output. Discussion Paper Series, No.2631. pp.1-51. Frankel, J.A. & Rose, A.K. (2002). An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 2 (May, 2002), pp. 437-466. Glick, R.& Rose, A.K. (2002). Does a currency union a ect trade? The time-series evidence. European Economic Review 46 (2002). pp. 1125 – 1151. Greenwood, J. (1984). Non-traded goods, the trade balance, and the balance of payments. Canadian Journal of Economics, 17, 806-823. Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics, (Fourth Edition).The McGraw−Hill Companies, 2004. Hooper, P. & Kohlhagen, S. W.(1978). The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics, 8, 1978, s.483-511. Kamwi, M. (2011). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Zambia: An Emprical Investigation of The J-Curve Effect. Institutional Repository, 1-46. Klein, M. W. & Shambaugh. C. (2004). Fixed Exchange Rate and Trade. NBER Working Paper, No: 10696. pp.1-38. Kumakura, M. (2005). Is the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Really Responsible for East Asia’s Export and Business Cycles? A Commentary on McKinnon and Schnabl (2003). Osaka City University and Institute of Developing Economics. pp.1509-1537. Lal, A.K. & Lowinger, T.C. (2002). Nominal Effective Exchange rate and Trade Balance Adjustment in South Asia countries. Journal of Asian Economics,13 (2002) 371-383. Liew, K.S., Lim, K. & Hussain, H. (2003). Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of Asean Countries (0307003). International Trade, Econ, WPA.63. pp.1-11. Narayan, P.R. (2004). New Zealand’s trade balance: evidence of the J-curve and granger causality. Applied Economics Letters, 2004, 11, 351–354. Nilsson, K. (2000). Exchange Rate Regimes and Export Performance of Developing Countries.Blackwell publishers ltd.,2000, 331-349. Poon, W. & Hooy, C. (2013). Exchange-Rate Volatility, Exchange-Rate Regime, and Trade in OIC Countries. Journal of Asia-Pacific Business, 14: 182–201. Rahman, M. & Mustafa, M. (1996). The dancing of the real exchange rate of US dollar and the US real trade balance. Applied Economics Letters, 3, 807-808. Rahman, M. (2009). The Impact of Real Exchange RateFlexibility on East Asian Exports. The World Economy, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), Japan. Pp.1-73. Rahmatsyah, G.,Siregar, Y. &Rajaguru, G. (2002). Exchange Rate Volatility, Trade and “Fixing for Life” in Thailand. Centre for International Economics Studies, Discussion Paper No.0212. pp.1-53. Reinhart, C. (1995). Devaluation, Relative Prices and International Trade. Imf Staff Papers, Vol.42, pp.290-309. Rose, A. K. (2000). One Money, One Market: Estimating The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade. Economic Policy October 1999, Helsinki. pp.1-48. Siregar, R. &Rajan, R.S.(2004). Impact of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s trade performance in the 1990s. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18, 218–240. Tenreyro, S. (2004). On the Trade Impact of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pp.1-39. Wooldridge, J.M. (2000). Introductory Econometrics, South-Western College Publishing. Villalonga, B. (2004a). Does diversification cause the ‘diversification discount’? Financial Management, 33(2), 5–27. Zhang, Z. (1996). The Exchange Value of The Renminbi and China’s Balance of Trade: An Emprical Study.Nber Working Paper 5771, pp. 1-28. Zhang, Z. (1999). Foreign Exchange Rate Reform, the Balance of Trade and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for China. Journal of Economic Development, Volume 24, Number 2, December 1999, pp.143-136.