GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER KÜRESEL SERMAYEYİ ÇEKME KONUSUNDA NİÇİN BAŞARISIZ OLMAKTADIRLAR? BALKAN ÜLKELERİ İÇİN LUCAS PARADOKSUNUN YENİDEN İNCELENMESİ

Year 2015, Volume: 24 Issue: 1, 13 - 30, 30.04.2015

Mehmet Demiral , Harun Bal , Neşe Algan

Abstract

Neoklasik teori, yatırım getirilerindeki farklılıklar eşitleninceye kadar sermayenin gelişmiş (zengin) ülkelerden gelişmekte olan (fakir) ülkelere gideceğini öngörmektedir. Bununla birlikte ünlü örneğinde Lucas (1990), 1988 yılında Hindistan’da sermayenin marjinal verimliliğinin ABD’dekinin yaklaşık 58 katı olmasına rağmen uygulamada böyle bir sermaye akımının gerçekleşmediğini göstermiştir. Giderek bütünleşen bir dünyada Lucas Paradoksu’nun neden hala görüldüğüne cevaplar arayan bu çalışma, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY’ler)’a gerçekte yön veren faktörleri seçilmiş dokuz Balkan ülkesi kapsamında araştırmaktadır. 2000-2012 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada yıllık dengeli panel veri seti kullanılarak çekim modeli tahmin edilmektedir. Genel sonuçlar, incelenen Balkan ülkeleri için Lucas Paradoksu’nu destekler niteliktedir. Sonuçlar regülasyonların, ülke riskinin ve DYY’lerde Çin’in artan cazibesinin Balkan ülkelerinin performansını engellediğini, buna karşın söz konusu ülkelerin beşeri sermayede, altyapıda ve lojistik servislerde gösterdiği ilerlemelerin DYY’lerdeki küresel paylarını artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, artan araştırma ve geliştirme yatırımları ile Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyelik sürecindeki ilerlemelerin, küresel DYY’lerin bu ülkelere yönelmesini teşvik edeceği görülmektedir.

Keywords

DYY, Lucas paradoksu, Balkan ülkeleri, Çekim modeli.

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