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Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisi

Year 2005, Volume: 14 Issue: 2, 63 - 80, 01.09.2005

Abstract

This paper attempts to test Wagnerian and Keynesian hypotheses by examining the relationship between economic growth and total government expenditure as well as its various components such as current investment and transfer expenditures for Turkey during the period 1950 2003 This study finds a unidirectional causality except for total government expenditure from economic growth to disaggregated public expenditure that total current investment transfer expenditures non transfer total public expenditures in the long run Although the results of this study do not support the existence of any long run casual relationship between economic growth and total public expenditures they do support the existence of long run relationship between economic growth and the disaggregated public expenditure variables The result of this study provide evidence to support the proposition in the literature that causality runs from economic growth to disaggregated public expenditures called as Wagner hypothesis Key Words: Wagnerian and Keynesian hypotheses dissagregated public expenditure growth causality co integration error correction model

References

  • Abizadeh, S. and Gray, J. (1985). "Wagner's Law: A Pooled Time Series Cross Section Comparison", National Tax Journal, 38, 209-238.
  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C., and Sahni, B. S. (1996). “Public Expenditure and National Income Causality: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables”, Southern Economic Journal, 58 (3), 623-634.
  • Aksoy, Ş.(1991) Kamu Maliyesi, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul
  • Altınay, G., Karagöl, E., (2004). “Structural Break, Unit Root and The Causality Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy Economics, vol.26, s.985-994
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. and Akuamoah, C. (1997). “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries”, Applied Economics, 29, 543-550.
  • Bagala, B.,Dhawan, U., Lee, H.Y. (1999) ”Testing Wagner versus Keynes Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data For Canada”, Applied Economics, 31, 1283- 1291.
  • Banarjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W . and Hendry, D. F. (1993).Cointegration,Error Correction and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Barro, R.J. (1990): “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 106, pp. 407-444.
  • Bird, R. M. (1970). "The Growth of Public Spending in Canada", Canadian Tax Papers, No. 51, 5, Toronto: Canada.
  • Bird, R. M.,(1971) “Wagner’s Law of Expanding State Activity”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (26). No. 1, s. 1-26.
  • Bohl, M. T.,(1996) “Some International Evidence on Wagner’s Law”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 185-200.
  • Charemza, W.W. and D.F. Deadman (1997), New Directions in Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar, 2nd ed., England.
  • Chletsos, M., C. Kollias(2001)”Testing Wagner’s Law Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data In The Case of Greece:1958-1993”, Applied Economics, 29, 371- 377.
  • Demirbaş, S.,(1999) ”Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law: The Case of Turkey,1950-1990”University of Leicster Discussion Papers, 99/2, www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-3.pdf
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W . A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W . A. (1981). "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
  • Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (Eds.) (1991). Long-Run Economic Relationships: Reading in Cointegration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Gandhi, V. P.,(1971) “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditure: Do Recent Cross-Section Studies Confirm it?”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (26), No.1, s. 44-56.
  • Goffman, I. J.,(1968) “On the Empirical Testing of Wagner’s law: A Technical Note”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (23), s. 359-364.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988) "Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.39.
  • Gupta, S.,(1967) “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (22), s.423-466.
  • Günaydın, İhsan.,(2000) “Türkiye için Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezlerinin Testi” İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 175, s.70-86.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F.,(2003) ”Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2, S.129-140.
  • IMF “World Economic Outlook”, Mayıs 2000
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 12.
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference On Cointegration: With Application To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol 52.
  • Kolluri, B.R., Panik, M.J., Sullivan, J.J.,(1989) “Wagner's Law of Public Expenditure Revisited” The Journal of Economics, v.11, s.98-104
  • Landau, Daniel,(1986) “Government and Economic Growth in the Less-Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-80,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, (35), s.35-75.
  • Mann, A. J.,(1980) “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test for Mexico, 1925-1976”, National Tax Journal, (33), s.189-201.
  • Masih A. M. M ve Masih R. (1998) “A Multy Cointegrated Modelling Approach Intesting Temporal Causality Between Energy Consumption, Real Income And Prices with an Appliccation to Two Asian LDCs”, Applied Economics, 30.
  • Michas, N. A.,(1975) “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditures: what is the appropriate measurement for a valid test”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (30), s. 77-84.
  • Nadaroğlu, H. (1992) Kamu Maliyesi Teorisi, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Oxley, L.,(1994). “Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, (41), s. 286-298.
  • Payne, J. E. and B. T. Ewing,(1996) “International Evidence on Wagner’s Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 258-274.
  • Peacock, A. ve J. Wiseman,(1961) “The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom”, Londra:George Allen and Unwin.
  • Peacock, Alan ve Alex Scott,(2000).“The Curious Attraction of Wagner’s Law”, Public Choice, (102), s.1-17
  • Perron, P.(1989) “ The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol.57, s.1361-1401
  • Perron, P.(1997) “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomics Variables “, Journal of Econometrics, (80), s.355-385
  • Ram, R. (1987)"Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-SectionPerspectives: Evidence from 'Real' Data for 115 Countries", Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 194-204.
  • Sahni, B. S . and Singh B. (1984). “On the Causal Directions Between National Income and Government Expenditure in Canada”, Public Finance, 39 (3), 359-393.
  • Sarı, R., (2003) "Kamu Harcamalarının Dünyada ve Türkiye'deki Gelişimi ve Türkiye'de Ulusal Gelir ile İlişkisi", İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 209(Ek), s.25-38.
  • Sattar, Zaidi,(1993) “Public Expenditure and Economic Performance: A Comparison of Developed and Low-Income Developing Economies,” Journal of International Development, (5),No.1, s. 27-49.
  • Scully, Gerald W.,(1989) “Size of the State, Economic Growth, and the Efficient Utilization of National Resources,” Public Choice, (63), s. 149-164.
  • Şener, Orhan., (1996) Kamu Ekonomisi, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul
  • Şimşek,Muammer.,(2004) “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme, 1965- 2002”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1/2), 37-52
  • Tanzi, Vito ve Ludger Schuknecht, “The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries” Working Paper Series(130), IMF, 1995.
  • Terzi, H.,(1998) ”Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 142, s.67-78.
  • Thornton, J.,(1999) “Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law in 19th Century Europe”, Applied Economics Letters, (6), s. 413-416.
  • Türk, İsmail.,(1999) Kamu Maliyesi, 3. Baskı, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara
  • Ulusoy, A., A. Zengin(1998) “Türkiye’de Kamu Ekonomisi ve Mali Kriz” XII. Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.Ü Maliye Bölümü Yayınları No:83, İstanbul
  • Yamak, N., Küçükkale, Y. (1997)” Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 131, s.5-14.
  • Yamak, R., Zengin, A. (1996) ” Kalman Filtre Yöntemi ve Wagner Yasası”, DİE Araştırma Sempozyumu, 1996, Ankara
  • Ziwot, E., Andrews, D.W.K(1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Bussines and Economic Statistics, (10), s.251-270.

Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisi

Year 2005, Volume: 14 Issue: 2, 63 - 80, 01.09.2005

Abstract

Bu çalışma 1950 2003 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanarak Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme ve toplam kamu harcamalarının yanı sıra bu harcamaların ekonomik tasnife göre ayrıştırılmış çeşitli unsurları arasındaki ilişkiyi incelerek Wagner ve Keynes hipotezlerini incelemektedir Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre toplam kamu harcamaları hariç uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeden ekonomik tasnife göre ayrıştırılmış cari yatırım transfer ve transfer dışı harcamalar gibi kamu harcamalarının unsurlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır Söz konusu sonuçlar uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin kamu harcamalarını artıracağını öne süren Wagner Yasasını desteklemektedir Anahtar Kelimeler: Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezi Kamu Harcama Unsurları Büyüme Nedensellik Eş Bütünleşme Hata Düzeltme Modeli

References

  • Abizadeh, S. and Gray, J. (1985). "Wagner's Law: A Pooled Time Series Cross Section Comparison", National Tax Journal, 38, 209-238.
  • Ahsan, S. M., Kwan, A. C., and Sahni, B. S. (1996). “Public Expenditure and National Income Causality: Further Evidence on the Role of Omitted Variables”, Southern Economic Journal, 58 (3), 623-634.
  • Aksoy, Ş.(1991) Kamu Maliyesi, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul
  • Altınay, G., Karagöl, E., (2004). “Structural Break, Unit Root and The Causality Between Energy Consumption and GDP in Turkey”, Energy Economics, vol.26, s.985-994
  • Ansari, M. I., Gordon, D. V. and Akuamoah, C. (1997). “Keynes Versus Wagner: Public Expenditure and National Income for Three African Countries”, Applied Economics, 29, 543-550.
  • Bagala, B.,Dhawan, U., Lee, H.Y. (1999) ”Testing Wagner versus Keynes Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data For Canada”, Applied Economics, 31, 1283- 1291.
  • Banarjee, A., Dolado, J. J., Galbraith, J. W . and Hendry, D. F. (1993).Cointegration,Error Correction and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Barro, R.J. (1990): “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 106, pp. 407-444.
  • Bird, R. M. (1970). "The Growth of Public Spending in Canada", Canadian Tax Papers, No. 51, 5, Toronto: Canada.
  • Bird, R. M.,(1971) “Wagner’s Law of Expanding State Activity”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (26). No. 1, s. 1-26.
  • Bohl, M. T.,(1996) “Some International Evidence on Wagner’s Law”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 185-200.
  • Charemza, W.W. and D.F. Deadman (1997), New Directions in Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar, 2nd ed., England.
  • Chletsos, M., C. Kollias(2001)”Testing Wagner’s Law Using Disaggregated Public Expenditure Data In The Case of Greece:1958-1993”, Applied Economics, 29, 371- 377.
  • Demirbaş, S.,(1999) ”Cointegration Analysis-Causality Testing and Wagner's Law: The Case of Turkey,1950-1990”University of Leicster Discussion Papers, 99/2, www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/ RePEc/lec/leecon/econ99-3.pdf
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W . A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W . A. (1981). "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Econometrica, 49, 1057-72.
  • Enders, W. (1995) Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
  • Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. (Eds.) (1991). Long-Run Economic Relationships: Reading in Cointegration. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Gandhi, V. P.,(1971) “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditure: Do Recent Cross-Section Studies Confirm it?”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (26), No.1, s. 44-56.
  • Goffman, I. J.,(1968) “On the Empirical Testing of Wagner’s law: A Technical Note”, Public Finance/ Finances Publiques, (23), s. 359-364.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1988) "Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality", Journal of Econometrics, Vol.39.
  • Gupta, S.,(1967) “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Time Series Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (22), s.423-466.
  • Günaydın, İhsan.,(2000) “Türkiye için Wagner ve Keynes Hipotezlerinin Testi” İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 175, s.70-86.
  • Halıcıoğlu, F.,(2003) ”Testing Wagner's Law for Turkey, 1960-2000”Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, Volume 1, Issue 2, S.129-140.
  • IMF “World Economic Outlook”, Mayıs 2000
  • Johansen, S. (1988), “Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol 12.
  • Johansen, S. and K. Juselius (1990) “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Inference On Cointegration: With Application To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol 52.
  • Kolluri, B.R., Panik, M.J., Sullivan, J.J.,(1989) “Wagner's Law of Public Expenditure Revisited” The Journal of Economics, v.11, s.98-104
  • Landau, Daniel,(1986) “Government and Economic Growth in the Less-Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-80,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, (35), s.35-75.
  • Mann, A. J.,(1980) “Wagner’s Law: An Econometric Test for Mexico, 1925-1976”, National Tax Journal, (33), s.189-201.
  • Masih A. M. M ve Masih R. (1998) “A Multy Cointegrated Modelling Approach Intesting Temporal Causality Between Energy Consumption, Real Income And Prices with an Appliccation to Two Asian LDCs”, Applied Economics, 30.
  • Michas, N. A.,(1975) “Wagner’s Law of Public Expenditures: what is the appropriate measurement for a valid test”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (30), s. 77-84.
  • Nadaroğlu, H. (1992) Kamu Maliyesi Teorisi, Beta Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Oxley, L.,(1994). “Cointegration, causality and Wagner’s Law”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, (41), s. 286-298.
  • Payne, J. E. and B. T. Ewing,(1996) “International Evidence on Wagner’s Hypothesis: A Cointegration Analysis”, Public Finance/Finances Publiques, (51), No. 2, s. 258-274.
  • Peacock, A. ve J. Wiseman,(1961) “The Growth of Public Expenditure in the United Kingdom”, Londra:George Allen and Unwin.
  • Peacock, Alan ve Alex Scott,(2000).“The Curious Attraction of Wagner’s Law”, Public Choice, (102), s.1-17
  • Perron, P.(1989) “ The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol.57, s.1361-1401
  • Perron, P.(1997) “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomics Variables “, Journal of Econometrics, (80), s.355-385
  • Ram, R. (1987)"Wagner's Hypothesis in Time-Series and Cross-SectionPerspectives: Evidence from 'Real' Data for 115 Countries", Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 194-204.
  • Sahni, B. S . and Singh B. (1984). “On the Causal Directions Between National Income and Government Expenditure in Canada”, Public Finance, 39 (3), 359-393.
  • Sarı, R., (2003) "Kamu Harcamalarının Dünyada ve Türkiye'deki Gelişimi ve Türkiye'de Ulusal Gelir ile İlişkisi", İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 209(Ek), s.25-38.
  • Sattar, Zaidi,(1993) “Public Expenditure and Economic Performance: A Comparison of Developed and Low-Income Developing Economies,” Journal of International Development, (5),No.1, s. 27-49.
  • Scully, Gerald W.,(1989) “Size of the State, Economic Growth, and the Efficient Utilization of National Resources,” Public Choice, (63), s. 149-164.
  • Şener, Orhan., (1996) Kamu Ekonomisi, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul
  • Şimşek,Muammer.,(2004) “Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme, 1965- 2002”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 18(1/2), 37-52
  • Tanzi, Vito ve Ludger Schuknecht, “The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries” Working Paper Series(130), IMF, 1995.
  • Terzi, H.,(1998) ”Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Kalkınma İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir İnceleme”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 142, s.67-78.
  • Thornton, J.,(1999) “Cointegration, Causality and Wagner’s Law in 19th Century Europe”, Applied Economics Letters, (6), s. 413-416.
  • Türk, İsmail.,(1999) Kamu Maliyesi, 3. Baskı, Turhan Kitabevi, Ankara
  • Ulusoy, A., A. Zengin(1998) “Türkiye’de Kamu Ekonomisi ve Mali Kriz” XII. Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu Bildiri Kitabı, İ.Ü Maliye Bölümü Yayınları No:83, İstanbul
  • Yamak, N., Küçükkale, Y. (1997)” Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, İktisat, İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, Sayı: 131, s.5-14.
  • Yamak, R., Zengin, A. (1996) ” Kalman Filtre Yöntemi ve Wagner Yasası”, DİE Araştırma Sempozyumu, 1996, Ankara
  • Ziwot, E., Andrews, D.W.K(1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and The Unit Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Bussines and Economic Statistics, (10), s.251-270.
There are 55 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Arş. Gör. İbrahim Arısoy This is me

Publication Date September 1, 2005
Submission Date December 29, 2013
Published in Issue Year 2005 Volume: 14 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Arısoy, A. G. . İ. (2005). Wagner Ve Keynes Hipotezleri Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamaları Ve Ekonomik Büyüme ilişkisi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 14(2), 63-80.