Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Sektörel Analiz

Year 2010, Volume: 19 Issue: 2, 313 - 327, 01.06.2010

Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ömer Özçiçek

Abstract

High inflation is an important concern of markets and policy makers Therefore lowering inflation and keeping inflation low is an important policy task A change in exchange rate may have an effect on domestic inflation Previous studies have shown that the pass through effect in Turkey is fast But there is not a unanimous agreement about the magnitude Previous studies about Turkey have used aggregate price indices which may cause some bias Using monthly and sectoral data this study shows that pass through in Turkey is fast and quit low Furthermore the reactions of different sectors are not homogeneous Pass through is especially low in non traded sectors such as agriculture food and drinks and housing Also there is a weak evidence showing that high exchange rate volatility is associated with higher inflation Key Words: Exchange rate inflation pass through sectors

Keywords

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Döviz Kuru Hareketlerinin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Sektörel Analiz

Abstract

Yüksek enflasyon piyasalar ve politika yapıcıları için ciddi bir kaygı unsurudur Bu yüzden enflasyonu düşürmek ve düşük seviyelerde tutmak önemli bir politikadır Döviz kurdaki bir değişim yerel enflasyonu etkileyebilmektedir Türkiye ile ilgili önceki çalışmalarda elde edilen bulgular geçiş etkisinin hızlı olduğu şeklindedir Fakat bu etkinin niceliği hakkında görüş birliği oluşmamıştır Önceki çalışmalarda makro verilerin kullanılmış olması sonuçlarda bir sapma etkisi yaratmış olabilir Bu çalışmada sektörel veriler kullanılarak Türkiye 8217;de geçiş etkisinin hızlı ve oldukça düşük olduğu gösterilmektedir Ticarete söz konusu olan sektörlerde bu etki daha güçlü hizmet sektörü gibi ticarete söz konusu olmayan sektörlerde geçiş etkisinin daha zayıf olduğu bulunmuştur Ayrıca kur oynaklığının enflasyonu artırıcı ve geçiş etkisi üzerinde bir etkisinin olmadığı gösterilmiştir Anahtar Kelimeler: Döviz kuru enflasyon yansıma sektörler

Keywords

Döviz kuru, enflasyon, yansıma, sektörler

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