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TÜRKİYE’NİN DOĞAL GAZ, PETROL VE KÖMÜR TÜKETİMİNİN BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ

Year 2020, Volume: 29 Issue: 3, 524 - 539, 26.10.2020

Hüseyin Ataş , Hüseyin Güler

https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.748775
Cited By: 3

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1990-2016 dönemimde Türkiye’nin petrol, doğal gaz ve kömür tüketiminin ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkisini tespit etmektir. Çalışmada Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYH), gayri safi sabit sermaye oluşumu, toplam işgücü, doğal gaz, petrol ve kömür tüketimi değişkenlerine ait veriler kullanılarak analizler gerçekleştirilmiştir. Serilerin durağanlığını test etmek için genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller birim kök testi kullanılmış ve serilerin birim kök içerdiği tespit edilmiştir. Uygun gecikme değeri belirlenerek tahmin edilen vektör otoregresif modelinin ardından Johansen eşbütünleşme testine geçilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme testi sonucu bir adet anlamlı eşbütünleşik vektör olduğu görülmüştür. Analizler sonucunda petrol, doğal gaz ve kömür tüketimi ile büyümenin uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettiği anlaşılmıştır. Uzun dönemde doğal gaz tüketimi büyümeyi olumlu etkilemekte, petrol ve kömür tüketimi ise olumsuz etkilemektedir. GSYH’nın doğal gaz tüketimindeki şoklara ilk iki yıl için anlamlı ve pozitif tepki verdiği öte yandan petrol ve kömür tüketimindeki şoklara anlamlı bir tepki vermediği tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar Türkiye’nin büyümesinin fosil yakıt tüketimine olan bağımlılığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

büyüme birincil enerji kaynakları petrol doğal gaz kömür

References

  • Acaravci, A. (2010). Structural breaks, electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 13(2), 140–154.
  • Alper, A., & Oguz, O. (2016). The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth: Evidence from asymmetric causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 953–959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.123
  • Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2004). Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. Energy Economics, 26(6), 985–994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.07.001
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Renewable energy consumption and growth in Eurasia. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1392–1397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.06.001
  • Araç, A., & Hasanov, M. (2014). Asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 44, 259–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.013
  • Asif, M., & Muneer, T. (2007). Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11(7), 1388–1413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2005.12.004
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., Ozdemir, H., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). The renewable energy consumption and growth in the G-7 countries: Evidence from historical decomposition method. Renewable Energy, 126, 594–604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.066
  • Baranzini, A., Weber, S., Bareit, M., & Mathys, N. A. (2013). The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland. Energy Economics, 36, 464–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.015
  • Bastola, U., & Sapkota, P. (2015). Relationships among energy consumption, pollution emission, and economic growth in Nepal. Energy, 80, 254–262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.068
  • Bayar, Y. (2014). Türkiye’de Birincil Enerji Kullanımı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(2), 253–269.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2009). Küresel Enerji Politikaları ve Türkiye: Petrol Ve Doğal Gaz Kaynakları Açısından Bir Karşılaştırma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 135.
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782–789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.02.005
  • BP. (2018). Statistical Review of World Energy. Statistical Review of World Energy, 67, 1–56.
  • Canbazoğlu, S. (2010). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) Yaklaşımı ile Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(336), 427–431.
  • Eggoh, J. C., Bangake, C., & Rault, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries. Energy Policy, 39(11), 7408–7421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.007
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
  • Erdal, G., Erdal, H., & Esengün, K. (2008). The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 36(10), 3838–3842. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.012
  • EU Commission. (2014). Energy Efficiency and its contribution to energy security and the 2030 Framework for climate and energy policy, (2013), 1–8. https://doi.org/SWD(2013) 93
  • Ghosh, S. (2002). Electricity consumption and economic growth in India. Energy Policy, 30(2), 125–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00078-7
  • Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2018. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.enerdata.net/
  • Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012
  • International Energy Outlook 2017. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf
  • Jobert, T., & Karanfil, F. (2007). Sectoral energy consumption by source and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5447–5456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.008
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254.
  • Korkmaz, Ö., & Develi, A. (2012). Türkiye’de birincil enerji kullanımı, üretimi ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişki. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), 1–25.
  • Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy Development, 3(2), 401–403.
  • Makina Mühendisleri Odası (TMMOB). (2018). Türkiye’nin Enerji Görünümü 2018. Ankara. Retrieved from https://www.mmo.org.tr/kitaplar/turkiyenin-enerji-gorunumu-2018
  • Pao, H.-T., & Fu, H.-C. (2013). Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.004
  • Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisinde enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi (1972-2011) (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Trabzon.
  • Saidi, K., Rahman, M. M., & Amamri, M. (2017). The causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption: New evidence from global panel of 53 countries. Sustainable Cities and Society, 33, 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2017.05.013
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
  • Soytas, U., Sari, R., & Ozdemir, O. (2005). Energy consumption and GDP relation in Turkey: A cointegration and vector error correction analysis. In Economies and Business in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings (pp. 838–844).
  • Tsani, S. Z. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece. Energy Economics, 32(3), 582–590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.007
  • Tugcu, C. T., Ozturk, I., & Aslan, A. (2012). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth relationship revisited: Evidence from G7 countries. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1942–1950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.021
  • Yu, E. S. H., & Hwang, B.-K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: Further results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(84)90015-X
  • Zachariadis, T., & Pashourtidou, N. (2007). An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus. Energy Economics, 29(2), 183–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.002
  • Zamani, M. (2007). Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1135–1140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.04.008

Year 2020, Volume: 29 Issue: 3, 524 - 539, 26.10.2020

Hüseyin Ataş , Hüseyin Güler

https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.748775
Cited By: 3

Abstract

References

  • Acaravci, A. (2010). Structural breaks, electricity consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 13(2), 140–154.
  • Alper, A., & Oguz, O. (2016). The role of renewable energy consumption in economic growth: Evidence from asymmetric causality. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 60, 953–959. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.123
  • Altinay, G., & Karagol, E. (2004). Structural break, unit root, and the causality between energy consumption and GDP in Turkey. Energy Economics, 26(6), 985–994. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2004.07.001
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Renewable energy consumption and growth in Eurasia. Energy Economics, 32(6), 1392–1397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2010.06.001
  • Araç, A., & Hasanov, M. (2014). Asymmetries in the dynamic interrelationship between energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Energy Economics, 44, 259–269. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.013
  • Asif, M., & Muneer, T. (2007). Energy supply, its demand and security issues for developed and emerging economies. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11(7), 1388–1413. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2005.12.004
  • Balcilar, M., Ozdemir, Z. A., Ozdemir, H., & Shahbaz, M. (2018). The renewable energy consumption and growth in the G-7 countries: Evidence from historical decomposition method. Renewable Energy, 126, 594–604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.066
  • Baranzini, A., Weber, S., Bareit, M., & Mathys, N. A. (2013). The causal relationship between energy use and economic growth in Switzerland. Energy Economics, 36, 464–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.09.015
  • Bastola, U., & Sapkota, P. (2015). Relationships among energy consumption, pollution emission, and economic growth in Nepal. Energy, 80, 254–262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.068
  • Bayar, Y. (2014). Türkiye’de Birincil Enerji Kullanımı Ve Ekonomik Büyüme. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(2), 253–269.
  • Bayraç, H. N. (2009). Küresel Enerji Politikaları ve Türkiye: Petrol Ve Doğal Gaz Kaynakları Açısından Bir Karşılaştırma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 135.
  • Belke, A., Dobnik, F., & Dreger, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship. Energy Economics, 33(5), 782–789. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.02.005
  • BP. (2018). Statistical Review of World Energy. Statistical Review of World Energy, 67, 1–56.
  • Canbazoğlu, S. (2010). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi: Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM) Yaklaşımı ile Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(336), 427–431.
  • Eggoh, J. C., Bangake, C., & Rault, C. (2011). Energy consumption and economic growth revisited in African countries. Energy Policy, 39(11), 7408–7421. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.007
  • Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251–276.
  • Erdal, G., Erdal, H., & Esengün, K. (2008). The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 36(10), 3838–3842. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.07.012
  • EU Commission. (2014). Energy Efficiency and its contribution to energy security and the 2030 Framework for climate and energy policy, (2013), 1–8. https://doi.org/SWD(2013) 93
  • Ghosh, S. (2002). Electricity consumption and economic growth in India. Energy Policy, 30(2), 125–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0301-4215(01)00078-7
  • Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2018. (2019). Retrieved from https://www.enerdata.net/
  • Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156–1164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.11.012
  • International Energy Outlook 2017. (2017). Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/0484(2017).pdf
  • Jobert, T., & Karanfil, F. (2007). Sectoral energy consumption by source and economic growth in Turkey. Energy Policy, 35(11), 5447–5456. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.05.008
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2–3), 231–254.
  • Korkmaz, Ö., & Develi, A. (2012). Türkiye’de birincil enerji kullanımı, üretimi ve Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) arasındaki ilişki. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), 1–25.
  • Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy Development, 3(2), 401–403.
  • Makina Mühendisleri Odası (TMMOB). (2018). Türkiye’nin Enerji Görünümü 2018. Ankara. Retrieved from https://www.mmo.org.tr/kitaplar/turkiyenin-enerji-gorunumu-2018
  • Pao, H.-T., & Fu, H.-C. (2013). Renewable energy, non-renewable energy and economic growth in Brazil. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 25, 381–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2013.05.004
  • Pata, U. K. (2016). Türkiye ekonomisinde enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi (1972-2011) (Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi). Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi, Trabzon.
  • Saidi, K., Rahman, M. M., & Amamri, M. (2017). The causal nexus between economic growth and energy consumption: New evidence from global panel of 53 countries. Sustainable Cities and Society, 33, 45–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2017.05.013
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality. Econometrica, 48(1), 1–48. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912017
  • Soytas, U., Sari, R., & Ozdemir, O. (2005). Energy consumption and GDP relation in Turkey: A cointegration and vector error correction analysis. In Economies and Business in Transition: Facilitating Competitiveness and Change in the Global Environment Proceedings (pp. 838–844).
  • Tsani, S. Z. (2010). Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece. Energy Economics, 32(3), 582–590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.09.007
  • Tugcu, C. T., Ozturk, I., & Aslan, A. (2012). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth relationship revisited: Evidence from G7 countries. Energy Economics, 34(6), 1942–1950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2012.08.021
  • Yu, E. S. H., & Hwang, B.-K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: Further results. Energy Economics, 6(3), 186–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(84)90015-X
  • Zachariadis, T., & Pashourtidou, N. (2007). An empirical analysis of electricity consumption in Cyprus. Energy Economics, 29(2), 183–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.002
  • Zamani, M. (2007). Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran. Energy Economics, 29(6), 1135–1140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.04.008
There are 38 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Hüseyin Ataş 0000-0003-3201-7360

Hüseyin Güler 0000-0002-7807-526X

Publication Date October 26, 2020
Submission Date June 6, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 29 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Ataş, H., & Güler, H. (2020). TÜRKİYE’NİN DOĞAL GAZ, PETROL VE KÖMÜR TÜKETİMİNİN BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİ: EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZ. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 29(3), 524-539. https://doi.org/10.35379/cusosbil.748775

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