Ege ve Akdeniz Kıyılarında Seçilen İstasyonlarda Deniz Suyu Sıcaklıkları İçin Soğuma Dönemi Trend Analizleri

Abstract

Eğilim araştırmalarında regresyon analizi ve sıklıkla kullanılan Mann-Kendall (MK) yöntemi gibi klasik yaklaşımlar kısıtları ve varsayımları sebebiyle bağlayıcı şartları ve ürettikleri bilgi açısından da ihtiyacı karşılayamamasına bağlı olarak yavaş yavaş terk edilmektedirler. Eğilimler için regresyon yaklaşımının kullanılabilmesi ve doğru sonuçlar alınabilmesi için verilerin normal dağılıma uyması, iç bağımlılık (otokorelasyon) olmaması, ölçümlerin hatasız olması, eşit varyans, doğrusallık kabullerinin her birinin analiz öncesinden araştırılması gerekir. Mann-Kendall yöntemi içinde buna benzer zorluklar olup, sonuçları açısından eğilim yok, artan eğilim veya azalan eğilim şeklinde kısıtlı bilgi üretilmektedir. Bu zorluk ve eksiklere iyi bir seçenek olarak geliştirilen herhangi bir varsayıma bağlı olmadan doğrudan uygulanabilen Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi (YEÇ) (Şen, 2012) yöntemi ve algoritması bu çalışmada temel alınarak, deniz suyu sıcaklık verilerindeki eğilim ve bu eğilimin matematik formu incelenmiştir. Ortaya konulan model ile farklı istasyonlardaki ortalama eğilim gidişleri kıyaslanabilmiştir. Yapılan çözümleme sonucunda, 1960-2009 yılları arasında 4 istasyonda Eylül ayından Şubat ayına kadar kaydedilen deniz suyu sıcaklık verilerinde, 2000-2009 dönemine doğru artış eğilimi görülmektedir. Özellikle iklim değişikliğinden en fazla etkilenecek bölge olan Akdeniz için, 2000-2009 sürecindeki eğilim çok dikkat çekicidir. Ancak, model grafikleri incelendiğinde, referans yıl olarak seçilen 1960-1969 yılına göre 4 farklı süreçte (1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009) ortaya çıkan azalma eğilimleri, iklim değişikliği gerçeğine bağlı olarak, 1960-1969 yılları verilerinin tarafsızlığının sorgulanmasını akla getirmektedir.

Keywords

• Trend Analizi,Deniz Suyu Sıcaklığı,Yenilikçi Eğilim Çözümlemesi,Türkiye

Trend Analysis for the Cooling Period for Sea Water Temperatures in Aegean and Mediterranean Coasts

Abstract

In trend studies, classical approaches such as regression analysis and frequently used Mann-Kendall (MK) methods are bound to lose their usage due to their limitations and assumptions, due to their inability to meet their requirements in terms of binding conditions and knowledge. In order to use the regression approach for the trends and to obtain correct results, the data should fit into normal distribution, there is no internal dependency (autocorrelation), the measurements are accurate, equal variance, linearity acceptances should be investigated before each analysis. There are similar difficulties in the Mann-Kendall method, which results in no trend, increasing or decreasing trend insufficiency in engineering practices. In this study, the trends in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and their mathematical structures are examined. The trends in different stations are compared with the suggested model. SST was recorded at four stations between 1960 and 2009.The increasing trend towards the period of 2000-2009 shows itself. The trends during of 2000-2009 period is especially striking for the Mediterranean region. However, when the model graphs are examined, there are decreasing trends that emerged in 4 different durations (1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009) compared to the 1960-1969 duration, which was selected as the reference year. Depending on the reality of climate change, the neutrality of the observed data 1960-1969 should be questioned.

Keywords

• Trend Analysis,Sea Surface Temperature,Innovative Trend Analysis,Turkey

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