CO2 emisyon değerlerinin tarım üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği

Abstract

İklim değişikliğinin tarım üzerindeki etkileri konusunda dünya çapında devam eden tartışmalar bulunmaktadır. Tüm sektörlerin iklim değişikliğinden etkilendiği bilinmektedir ve tarım sektörü de bir istisna değildir. Bu çalışma, 1961-2018 döneminde iklim değişikliğinin Türkiye'de tarım üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Değişkenlerin birim köklerini belirlemek için Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips-Perron (PP) testleri dahil olmak üzere farklı testler kullanılmıştır. Buna ek olarak, değişkenler arasındaki bağlantıyı analiz etmek için Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı ve Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) analizi uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler I (1) 'de durağandır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, CO2 emisyon değerlerinin tarım üzerinde önemli bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye'nin nüfusu arttıkça, gıda yeterliliği ve güvenliği önümüzdeki on yıl içinde daha önemli konular olarak ortaya çıkacaktır.

Keywords

• Tarımsal üretim,CO2 emisyonları,İklim değişikliği,VAR analizi,ARDL

Impacts of CO2 emissions on agriculture: Empirical evidence from Turkey

Abstract

There are ongoing debates around the world regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture. All sectors are known to be affected by climate change, and the agriculture sector is no exception. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on agriculture in Turkey in the 1961–2018 period. In order to determine the unit roots of variables, different tests are applied, including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Additionally, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis are applied to evaluate the link between the variables. The variables are stationary at I (1). Results of the study reveal that CO2 emissions have a significant impact on agriculture. As Turkey’s population increases, food sufficiency and security will emerge as more important issues over the next decade.

Keywords

• Agricultural output,CO2 emissions,Climate change,VAR analysis,ARDL

References

1. Abbas, F., & Choudhury, N. (2013). Electricity consumption-economic growth nexus: an aggregated and disaggregated causality analysis in India and Pakistan. Journal of Policy Modeling, 35(4): 538-553.
2. Abid, M. E. A., Scheffran, J., Schneider, U. A., & Ashfaq, M. (2015). Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan. Earth System Dynamics, 6(1): 225-243.
3. Alam, Q. (2013). Climate change, agricultural productivity and economic growth in India: The bounds test analysis. International Journal of Applied Research and Studies, 2(11): 1-14.
4. Ali, S., Liu, Y., Ishaq, M., Shah, T., Ilyas, A., & Din, I. U. (2017). Climate change and its impact on the yield of major food crops: Evidence from Pakistan. Foods, 6(6): 39.
5. Amponsah, L., Kofi Hoggar, G., & Yeboah Asuamah, S. (2015). Climate change and agriculture: modelling the impact of carbon dioxide emission on cereal yield in Ghana. Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, 2: 32-38.
6. Batten, D. S., & Belongia, M. T. (1986). Monetary policy, real exchange rates, and US agricultural exports. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68(2): 422-427.
7. Bessler, D. A., & Babula, R. A. (1987). Forecasting wheat exports: do exchange rates matter?. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 5(3): 397-406.
8. Bryan, E., Deressa, T. T., Gbetibouo, G. A., & Ringler, C. (2009). Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints. Environmental science & policy, 12(4): 413-426.

9. Carter, C. A., Gray, R. S., & Furtan, W. H. (1990). Exchange rate effects on inputs and outputs in Canadian agriculture. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 72(3): 738-743.
10. Chambers, R. G., & Just, R. E. (1982). An investigation of the effect of monetary factors on agriculture. Journal of Monetary Economics, 9(2): 235-247.
11. Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Rehman, A., & Dunya, R. (2018). The linkage between fertilizer consumption and rice production: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. AIMS Agriculture and Food, 3(3): 295-305.
12. Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., & Rehman, A. (2019). Energy consumption and agricultural economic growth in Pakistan: is there a nexus?. International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 13(3): 597-609.
13. Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Rehman, A., & Rauf, A. (2020). Short and long-run impacts of climate change on agriculture: an empirical evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2019-0026.
14. Cline, W. R. (2008). Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country, Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 4037.
15. Dong, K., Sun, R., & Dong, X. (2018). CO2 emissions, natural gas and renewables, economic growth: assessing the evidence from China. Science of the Total Environment, 640: 293-302.
16. Godfray, H.C.J., Beddington, J.R., Crute, I.R., Haddad, L., Lawrence, D., Muir, J.F., Pretty, J., Robinson, S., Thomas, S.M. & Toulmin, C. (2010). Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327(5967): 812-818.
17. Huang, J. K. (2014). Climate change and agriculture: Impact and adaptation. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(4): 657-659.
18. Li, X., Takahashi, T., Suzuki, N., & Kaiser, H. M. (2011). The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China. Agricultural Systems, 104(4): 348-353.
19. Lobell, D. B., Cahill, K. N., & Field, C. B. (2007). Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields. Climatic change, 81(2): 187-203.
20. Mendelsohn, R. (2014). The impact of climate change on agriculture in Asia. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 13(4): 660-665.
21. Nelson, G.C., Rosegrant, M.W., Koo, J., Robertson, R.D., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., Ringler, C., Msang, S., Palazzo, A., Batka, M., Magalhaes, M., Valmonte-Santos, R., Ewing, M., Lee, D.R. (2009). Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Food Policy Report. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/0896295354.
22. Orden, D., & Fackler, P. L. (1989). Identifying monetary impacts on agricultural prices in VAR models. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71(2): 495-502.
23. Parry, M. L., Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., Livermore, M., & Fischer, G. (2004). Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 53-67.
24. Phillips, P. C., & Loretan, M. (1991). Estimating long-run economic equilibria. The Review of Economic Studies, 58(3): 407-436.
25. Spanos, A. (1990). The simultaneous-equations model revisited: Statistical adequacy and identification. Journal of Econometrics, 44(1-2): 87-105.
26. Sahinli, M.A. (2013). Pressures and Risks to the Agricultural Environment. Turkey and EU Countries. Journal of Animal and Veterinary Advances. 12: 194-200.
27. Sahinli, M.A. (2019). Effects of Agricultural Supports: The Case of Turkey. Journal of Environmental Protection and Ecology. 20(1): 515-525.
28. Taylor, J. S., & Spriggs, J. (1989). Effects of the monetary macro-economy on Canadian agricultural prices. Canadian Journal of Economics, 278-289.
29. Wang, B., Sun, Y., & Wang, Z. (2018). Agglomeration effect of CO2 emissions and emissions reduction effect of technology: A spatial econometric perspective based on China's province-level data. Journal of cleaner production, 204: 96-106.
30. WDI (2020). https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators. Access date: 01.02.2020.
31. Xuab, H., Tianab, Z., Zhongc, H., Fan, D., Shic, R., Niubd, Y., Hee, X. & Chenf, M. (2017, September). Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections. In Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability XIV (10405: 104050W). International Society for Optics and Photonics.
32. Zhang, J., Zhao, Y., Wang, C., & He, Y. (2006). Effects of climate change on winter wheat growth and yield in North China. Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao= The Journal of Applied Ecology, 17(7): 1179-1184.