CO2 emisyon değerlerinin tarım üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye örneği

Öz

İklim değişikliğinin tarım üzerindeki etkileri konusunda dünya çapında devam eden tartışmalar bulunmaktadır. Tüm sektörlerin iklim değişikliğinden etkilendiği bilinmektedir ve tarım sektörü de bir istisna değildir. Bu çalışma, 1961-2018 döneminde iklim değişikliğinin Türkiye'de tarım üzerindeki etkilerini araştırmaktadır. Değişkenlerin birim köklerini belirlemek için Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) ve Phillips-Perron (PP) testleri dahil olmak üzere farklı testler kullanılmıştır. Buna ek olarak, değişkenler arasındaki bağlantıyı analiz etmek için Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı ve Vektör Otoregresif (VAR) analizi uygulanmıştır. Değişkenler I (1) 'de durağandır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, CO2 emisyon değerlerinin tarım üzerinde önemli bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye'nin nüfusu arttıkça, gıda yeterliliği ve güvenliği önümüzdeki on yıl içinde daha önemli konular olarak ortaya çıkacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tarımsal üretim,CO2 emisyonları,İklim değişikliği,VAR analizi,ARDL

Impacts of CO2 emissions on agriculture: Empirical evidence from Turkey

Öz

There are ongoing debates around the world regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture. All sectors are known to be affected by climate change, and the agriculture sector is no exception. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on agriculture in Turkey in the 1961–2018 period. In order to determine the unit roots of variables, different tests are applied, including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. Additionally, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis are applied to evaluate the link between the variables. The variables are stationary at I (1). Results of the study reveal that CO2 emissions have a significant impact on agriculture. As Turkey’s population increases, food sufficiency and security will emerge as more important issues over the next decade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Agricultural output,CO2 emissions,Climate change,VAR analysis,ARDL

Kaynakça

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