CLIMATE CHANGE RISK NARRATIVES IN SCIENCE AND FICTION: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF IPCC REPORTS AND ELIF SHAFAK’S HE ARE THE PEOPLE

Abstract

Climate change has become a pervasive systemic risk on a global scale, posing significant challenges to conventional modes of understanding and governance. Scientific assessments, particularly those produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), frame climate risk through data-driven approaches. However, these assessments often encounter challenges in articulating the lived experiences and moral imperatives associated with the imminent threat of climate-related catastrophes. This article investigates how Elif Shafak's climate fiction He Are the People functions as a risk narrative, examining its portrayal of climate-induced societal collapse concerning the risk concepts articulated in IPCC reports. Drawing upon Ulrich Beck's theory of the "risk society" and insights from the environmental humanities, this study analyzes the narrative's depiction of climate risks alongside scientific projections. The comparative analysis demonstrates that Shafak’s narrative aligns with scientific assessments concerning critical threats but further enhances this understanding by humanizing and dramatizing the anticipation of catastrophe. This portrayal underscores the psychological, cultural, and ethical dimensions that quantitative reports often fail to encapsulate. The narrative serves as an effective risk communication tool, transforming abstract data into tangible human experiences and thereby enhancing risk perception and facilitating emotional engagement. This article contends that risk narratives of this nature are crucial complements to established scientific discourse, enriching our collective understanding of climate change by embedding it within a framework of lived experiences and moral contexts. This interdisciplinary approach underscores the essential role of narrative in the effective communication and confrontation of global climate risks.

Keywords

• Climate Change Science
• Cli-fi
• Risk Narrative
• Risk Society
• Environmental Humanities

BİLİM VE KURGUDA İKLİM DEĞİŞİKLİĞİ RİSKANLATILARI: IPCC RAPORLARI VE ELİF ŞAFAK’IN HE ARE THE PEOPLE HİKAYESİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRMALI ANALİZİ

Abstract

İklim değişikliği, geleneksel anlayış ve yönetişim biçimlerini zorlayan sistemik ve küresel bir risk olarak ortaya çıkmıştır. Hükümetlerarası İklim Değişikliği Paneli (IPCC) tarafından hazırlanan raporlar gibi bilimsel değerlendirmeler, iklim riskini veri odaklı çerçevelerle kavramsallaştırsa da yaklaşan felaketlerin yaşanmış deneyimini ve ahlaki aciliyetini aktarmakta yetersiz kalmaktadır. Bu makale, Elif Şafak’ın He Are the People adlı kısa öyküsünü bir risk anlatısı olarak incelemekte ve öyküde betimlenen iklim kaynaklı toplumsal çöküşü IPCC raporlarındaki risk kavramlarıyla karşılaştırmaktadır. Ulrich Beck’in “risk toplumu” kuramı ve çevreci beşeri bilimler alanındaki çalışmalardan yararlanarak yapılan çözümleme, öykünün iklim risklerini bilimsel projeksiyonlarla paralel biçimde ele aldığını, ancak bunun ötesine geçerek yaklaşan felaketin psikolojik, kültürel ve etik boyutlarını da insanileştirerek dramatize ettiğini göstermektedir. Şafak’ın anlatısı, soyut verileri somut bir insan hikâyesine dönüştürerek risk algısını güçlendirmekte ve duygusal bağ kurmayı mümkün kılmaktadır. Makalede, bu tür risk anlatılarının bilimsel söyleme önemli bir katkı sunduğu, iklim değişikliği olgusunu yaşanmış deneyim ve ahlaki bağlam içine yerleştirerek daha bütüncül bir anlayış geliştirdiği sonucuna varılmaktadır. Bu disiplinlerarası yaklaşım, küresel iklim risklerinin anlatı yoluyla iletilmesinin ve kavranmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Keywords

• İklim Değişikliği Bilimi
• İklim Kurgu
• Risk Anlatısı
• Risk Toplumu
• Çevreci Beşeri Bilimler.

References

1. Beck, U. (1992). Risk society: Towards a new modernity (M. Ritter, Trans.). Sage. (Original work published 1986)
2. Beck, U. (2009a). Critical theory of world risk society: A cosmopolitan vision. Constellations, 16(1), 1–22. [https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8675.2009.00534.x]
3. Beck, U. (2009b). World at risk. (C. Cronin, Trans.) Polity Press.
4. Beck, U. (2016). The metamorphosis of the world. Polity Press.
5. Caretta, M. A., Mukherji, A., Arfanuzzaman, M., Betts, R. A., Gelfan, A., Hirabayashi, Y., Lissner, T. K., Liu, J., Lopez Gunn, E., Morgan, R., Mwanga, S., & Supratid, S. (2022). Water. In H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama (Eds.), Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (pp. 551–712). Cambridge University Press. [https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.006]
6. Cissé, G., McLeman, R., Adams, H., Aldunce, P., Bowen, K., Campbell‑Lendrum, D., Clayton, S., Ebi, K. L., Hess, J., Huang, C., Liu, Q., McGregor, G., Semenza, J., & Tirado, M. C. (2022). Health, wellbeing and the changing structure of communities. In H.-O. Pörtner, D. C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E. S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, & B. Rama (Eds.), Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (pp. 1041–1170). Cambridge University Press. [https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.009]
7. Curran, D. (2018). Beck’s creative challenge to class analysis: From the rejection of class to the discovery of risk‑class. Journal of Risk Research, 21(1), 29–40. [https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2017.1351464]
8. Heise, U. K. (2008). Sense of place, sense of planet: The environmental imagination of the global. Oxford University Press.

9. Hoegh‑Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, S., Camilloni, I., Diedhiou, A., Djalante, R., Ebi, K., Engelbrecht, F., Guiot, J., Hijioka, Y., Mehrotra, S., Payne, A., Seneviratne, S. I., Thomas, A., Warren, R., & Zhou, G. (2018). Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems. In V. Masson‑Delmotte, P. Zhai, H. O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P. R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma‑Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J. B. R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M. I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, & T. Waterfield (Eds.), Global warming of 1.5°C (pp. 175–312). Cambridge University Press. [https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.005]
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2023). Climate change 2023: Synthesis report. IPCC.
11. Latour, B. (2018). Down to Earth: Politics in the new climatic regime. Polity Press. Cambridge: Polity Press.
12. Mayer, S. (2014). Explorations of the controversially real: Risk, the climate change novel, and the narrative of anticipation. In S. Mayer & A. Weik von Mossner (Eds.), The anticipation of catastrophe: Environmental risk in North American literature and culture (pp. 21–38). Heidelberg, Germany: Universitätsverlag Winter.
13. Mayer, S. (2020). Environmental risk fiction and ecocriticism. Ecozon@, 11(2), 147–153. [https://doi.org/10.37536/ECOZONA.2020.11.2.3534]
14. Miller, T. (2017). Storming the wall: Climate change, migration, and homeland security. City Lights Books.
15. Nixon, R. (2011). Slow violence and the environmentalism of the poor. Harvard University Press.
16. Reisinger, A., Howden, M., Vera, C., et al. (2020). The concept of risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: A summary of cross‑Working Group discussions (Internal guidance document, 15 pp.). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/01/The-concept-of-risk-in-the-IPCC-Sixth-Assessment-Report.pdf] Shafak, E. (2019). He are the people. McSweeney’s Quarterly Concern, 58, 2040 A.D. 133–146. McSweeney’s.
17. Weik von Mossner, A. (2017). Cli‑fi and the feeling of risk. Amerikastudien / American Studies, 62(1), 129–138. [https://amst.winter-verlag.de/article/AMST/2017/1/12]