Tüketicinin Otomobil Talebinin Tahmini Ve Ülke Menşei Etkileri Üzerine Bir Literatür İncelemesi

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 27 Sayı: 1, 97 - 132, 25.06.2012

AHMET Özçam DİLEK SAĞLIK Özçam

Öz

Otomobil talebi çoğu zaman çeşitli kuramsal ekonometrik modellerin uygulama alanı olmuş ve de otomotiv halen Türkiye’de lider ihracat sektörü konumundadır. Bu çalışmada ABD, Avrupa ve Türkiye’de yeni otomobil talebinin modellemesi ve tahmin edilmesi ile ilgili önemli gelişmeler incelenmiştir. Daha çok uygulama ile ilgilenen ekonometriciler bu tür bir modelin belirlenmesi ve gerekli ekonometrik tahmin yönteminin seçilmesi için faydalı bir bakış açısı kazanabilirler. Fakat, uygulamacı istatistikçi otomobil talebinin modellenmesi ve ileriye dönük satış miktarlarının tahmininde yaşanabilecek bir takım güçlüklere karşı uyarılmaktadır. Ülke menşei tüketicinin otomobil seçimini etkileyen önemli bir etken olduğu bilinmektedir ve dolayısıyla pazarlama literatüründe bulunan ürünün ülke menşei hususunda tüketici önyargılarını da inceleyeceğiz.

Anahtar Kelimeler

otomobil talebi, toplulaştırılmamış veriler, modelleme, ekonometrik tahmin, ülke menşei etkileri

A REVIEW OF ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF CONSUMER DEMAND FOR AUTOMOBILES AND THE COUNTRY OF ORIGIN (COO) EFFECTS

Öz

The demand for automobiles has always been an important area for the application of various theoretical econometric models and the automotive industry remains to be the leading export sector in Turkey. This paper surveys a range of important developments in the modeling and estimation of demand for new automobiles in various regions like the U.S., Europe, and Turkey. The applied econometrician can acquire a good perspective when constructing such a model and deciding on the most appropriate econometric estimation technique. However, the applied econometrician is cautioned against some of the difficulties in modeling and forecasting the demand for automobiles. Since the Country of Origin (COO) effect is known to be an important factor in explaining the demand for products including automobiles, we also review the marketing literature investigating the consumers’ biases about products related to the country in which they are made.

Anahtar Kelimeler

automobile demand, disaggregation, modeling, econometric estimation, country of origin effects

Kaynakça

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