TÜRKİYE’NİN BÜYÜME DİNAMİĞİNDE İHRACAT MI İTHALAT MI DAHA ETKİN?

Year 2009, Volume: 24 Issue: 1 - Volume: 24 Issue: 1, 3 - 16, 25.07.2016

M. SERDAR İspir BERNUR AÇIKGÖZ Ersoy MİNE Yılmazer

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, ihracat ve ithalat yönlü büyüme hipotezleri çerçevesinde, 1989-2007 döneminde, Türkiye’nin GSYİH’sının büyüme dinamiğine ihracat ve ithalatın katkısı araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre; daralma döneminden genişleme dönemine geçerken ihracat baskın rol oynamaktadır, ekonomi genişleme döneminde iken bu sürecin sürdürülmesinde ihracat ve ithalat birlikte katkı sağlamaktadır ve ihracatın ve ithalatın söz konusu katkıları azalma eğilimindedir.

Keywords

Büyüme, Ihracat, Ithalat, Markov rejim değişmeleri

DOES EXPORT OR IMPORT MORE EFFECTIVE ON TURKISH GROWTH DYNAMICS?

Abstract

In this study, the scope of export and import oriented growth hypothesis, export and imports’ contribution to the dynamic of the Turkish GDP Growth have been investigated during the period between 1989 and 2007. According to the diagnoses which are found, export plays a dominant role while the economy is shifting from ressesion mode to expanding period. In order to continue this process, export and import together provides a great amount of contribution, while the contributions of export and import tend to decrease during the expanding period.

Keywords

Growth, Export, Import, Markov switching

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