Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of Northern Iran

Year 2024, , 272 - 280, 27.05.2024

Maryam Adhami

https://doi.org/10.21205/deufmd.2024267711

Abstract

The combination of the L-moment approach and multiple regression offers an attractive solution to provide flood estimation at ungauged sites within the Gorganrood and Ghare-sou river basins in the north of Iran. This research has two main goals including regionalization by cluster analysis and regional estimation of flood quantile at the site of interest. After data analysis regarding climatic and hydrologic data series, hierarchical approach was carried out to identify homogeneous regions. The homogeneity test was done by H-Statistic, a testing method based on L-moments. The results showed that a subdivision of selected watersheds into homogenous groups is necessary; therefore, two homogenous regions were formed. In the present study, five three-parameter distributions were fitted to the homogeneous regions and the best-fit one was identified using the L-moments approach. The results of the goodness-of-fit analysis for the two regions introduced the Generalized Pareto (GPA) distribution for both regions as acceptably close fits to the regional average L-moments. Besides, multiple regression was applied to diagnose the effective independent parameters on discharge value. The results reported percent of permeable formations, average annual precipitation, and stream slope as the most effective variables.

Keywords

Clustering, Gorganrood and Ghare-sou, L-moments, Principal component analysis, Regional flood frequency analyses, Regionalization

Kuzey İran'ın Bölgesel Taşkın Frekans Analizi

Abstract

L-moment yaklaşımı ve çoklu regresyonun kombinasyonu, İran'ın kuzeyindeki Gorganrood ve Ghare-sou nehri havzalarındaki ölçüm olmayan alanlarda taşkını tahmin etmek için cazip bir çözüm sunmaktadır. Bu araştırma, kümeleme analizi ile çalışma alanının bölgeselleştirilmesi ve taşkın kuantillerinin bölgesel tahmini olmak üzere iki ana amaca yöneliktir. Verilerin analizinden sonra homojen bölgeleri belirlemek için hiyerarşik bir yaklaşım gerçekleştirilmiştir. Homojenlik testi, L-momentlerine dayalı bir test yöntemi olan H-Statistic ile yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar, seçilen havzaların homojen gruplara bölünmesinin gerekli olduğunu göstermiştir; dolayısıyla iki homojen bölge oluşmuştur. Bu çalışmada, homojen bölgelerde beş adet üç parametreli dağılımın uyumluluğu incelenmiş ve en uygun dağılım L-momentler yaklaşımı kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. İki bölge için uyumluluk analizinin sonuçları, her iki bölge için de Generalized Pareto (GPA) dağılımını, bölgesel ortalama L-momentlerine kabul edilebilir ölçüde yakın olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca debi üzerindeki etkili bağımsız değişkenlerin tespiti için çoklu regresyon uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar geçirgen formasyonların yüzdesi, yıllık ortalama sıcaklık ve akarsu eğiminin en etkili değişkenler olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kümelendirme, Gorganrood ve Ghare-suo, L-moments, Temel bileşenler Analizi, Bölgesel taşkın frekansı analizi, Bölgeselleştirme

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