Fotovoltaik ve Rüzgâr Enerjisi Sistem Kapasitelerinin Tekno-Ekonomik Analizle Belirlenmesi: İndirim Oranı ve Satış Tarifesinin Etkileri

Abstract

Artan enerji ihtiyacı ve azalan fosil kaynaklı yakıtların azalması yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına olan ilgiyi artırmıştır. Bu kaynaklardan fotovoltaik (PV) ve rüzgâr sistemleri ön plana çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada farklı indirim oranları ve şebeke tarife fiyatları kullanılarak şebekeye bağlı hibrit PV/rüzgar sistem kapasiteleri en düşük birim enerji maliyetini verecek şekilde optimizasyonla belirlenmiştir. Birim enerji maliyetinin ve sistem kapasitelerinin yanı sıra, sistemin ürettiği fazla enerji, talebin karşılanma oranı, net bugünkü değer (NPV), geri ödeme süresi ve önlenen CO₂ salınım miktarları hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmada benzetimi yapılan durumlardan en yüksek NPV değeri olan 4.3 milyon USD ve en düşük birim enerji maliyeti olan 108,84 USD/MWh değerlerini %8 indirim oranında ve %40 oranındaki çift-yönlü tarifede bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlara ideal 2572 kW PV ve 900 kW rüzgar türbin kapasitelerinde ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca çalışmanın sonuçları, indirim oranının %4’ten %12 çıkmasının en düşük enerji maliyetini tutturabilmek için PV ve türbin kapasitelerini %20’ye kadar düşürmek gerektiğini ve bu düşüşe rağmen birim enerji maliyetinin ve NPV değerinin sırasıyla %12 ve %75 oranlarında düşebileceğini göstermiştir. Şebekeyle enerji transferinde satış/alış oranının da %0’dan %40’a çıkmasının PV ve türbin kapasitelerini sırasıyla %58 ve %50 artıracağını ve birim enerji maliyetlerini %5 azaltacağını, NPV değerini de %57’ye kadar artıracağını öngörülmüştür. Buna göre, indirim oranının yüksek olduğu ülkelerde yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının yaygınlaştırılması için indirim oranının düşük olduğu ülkelere nazaran teşviklerin daha yüksek olması gerektiğini ve bu teşviğin yüksek oranlı çift-yönlü tarifelerle yapılabileceği ortaya çıkmaktadır.

Keywords

• Hibrit Sistemler,Güneş Enerjisi,Kapasite Belirleme,Rüzgar Enerjisi,Tekno-ekonomik Analiz,Yenilenebilir Enerji

Sizing of Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Systems by Techno-Economic Analysis: Effects of Discount Rate and Feed-in-tariff

Abstract

Increasing energy demand and depleting fossil fuels have increased the interest in renewable energy systems. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind systems are at the forefront of these systems. In this study, grid-connected hybrid PV/wind system capacities are optimized with the lowest cost of energy at different discount rates and feed-in-tariffs. In addition to the cost of energy and system capacities, produced excess energy, the ratio of the energy demand by the hybrid system, net present value (NPV), payback period and avoided CO2 emissions are calculated. The highest NPV value of 4.3 million USD and the lowest cost of energy of 108.84 USD/MWh are found at the discount rate of 8% and feed-in-tariff/grid tariff ratio of 40% using PV and wind capacities of 2572 and 900 kW, respectively. Moreover, the results show that when the discount rate increases from 4% to 12%, the PV and turbine capacities should be reduced by up to 20% to keep the lowest cost of energy cost. As a result of this capacity change, the cost of energy is increased by 12%, and NPV is decreased by 75%. Moreover, increasing the feed-in-tariff/grid tariff ratio from 0% to 40% increases the PV and turbine capacities by 58% and 50%, respectively, decreases the cost of energy by 5% and increases NPV by 57%. In conclusion, it is found that renewable energy incentives should be higher in countries with high discount rates than the ones with low discount rates to increase the renewable energy investments, and this incentive can be made with higher feed-in-tariffs.

Keywords

• Hybrid Systems,Renewable Energy,Solar Energy,System Sizing,Techno-economic Analysis,Wind Energy

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