EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: TURKISH CASE

Abstract

Trade policies have an important role on countries growth and development process. The export-led growth hypothesis assumes that there is a casual relationship between export and growth. In this paper the validity of export-led growth hypothesis was analysed with quarterly data for the period between 1999-2013. After implementing unit root, co-integration tests and Granger causality test which is based on error correction mechanism, we find an evidence to support the hypothesis that there is short-run bidirectional and long-run unidirectional causality between export and gross domestic product in Turkey. 

Keywords: Export-led Growth, Co-integration, Causality, Turkey.

İHRACATA DAYALI BÜYÜME HİPOTEZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Dış ticaret politikalarının ülkelerin büyüme ve kalkınma süreçleri üzerinde önemli bir role sahip olduğu literatürde kabul görmektedir. İhracata dayalı büyüme hipotezi de, ihracat ve büyüme arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu varsaymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye için 1999-2013 periyodunu dönemsel veriler ile analiz ederek değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin yönünü belirlemek ve hipotezin geçerliliğini sınamaktır. Birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri sonrasında yapılan hata düzeltme mekanizmasına dayalı Granger nedensellik testi bulgularına göre kısa dönem için değişkenler arasında çift yönlü (feedback) yani birbirini besleyen ve uzun dönem için tek yönlü, ihracattan büyümeye doğru bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur.

Anahtar Kelimeler: İhracata Dayalı Büyüme, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Türkiye.

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