Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezi: Türk İmalat Sanayi Örneği

Abstract

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de enflasyon beklentilerinin rasyonelliğinin test edilmesidir. Bu çalışmada 1992-2009 dönemi itibariyle Türkiye’de imalat sanayi ve alt sektörleri için enflasyon beklentilerinin rasyonelliği Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından raporlanan İmalat Sanayi Eğilim İstatistikleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Beklentilerin rasyonel olup olmadığı yansızlık, otokorelasyon, etkinlik ve ortogonallik analizleri ile test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre incelenen dönem itibariyle toplam imalat sanayi ve alt sektörleri bazında enflasyon beklentileri rasyonel değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Rasyonellik, İmalat Sanayi, Yansızlık, Etkinlik, Ortogonallik.

Keywords

• Rasyonellik, İmalat Sanayi, Yansızlık, Etkinlik, Ortogonallik

Rational Expectation Hypothesis: The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

Abstract

The aim of this study is to test rationality of inflation expectations in Turkey. In this study, the rationality of manufacturing industry and sub-sectors’ inflation expectations were investigated in Turkey using the Manufacturing Industry Tendency Statistics which reported by Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) for the period of 1992-2009. Whether the expectations are rational is tested by the analysis of unbiasedness, autocorrelation, efficiency, and orthogonality. According to results, the inflation expectations for the total manufacturing industry and sub-sectors are not rational for the period under discussion.

Keywords: Rationality, Manufacturing Industry, Unbiasedness, Efficiency, Orthogonality.

Keywords

• Rationality, Manufacturing Industry, Unbiasedness, Efficiency, Orthogonality

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