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ALMANYA, FRANSA VE AMERIKA’ DAN TÜRK HISSE SENEDI PIYASALARINA STOK GETIRI VOLATILITE YAYILIMLARI

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 171 - 187, 17.08.2018
https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.335534

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Almanya, Fransa ve Amerika hisse
senedi piyasalarının Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası üzerindeki oynaklık yayılımı
etkisini incelemektir. 02.01.2004 - 06.02.2017 dönemi için günlük frekansda DAX
30, CAC 40, S&P 500 ve BİST 100 endekslerine ilişkin kapanış verileri
kullanılmıştır. Koşullu varyans değerlerini elde etmek amacıyla E-GARCH(1,1)
modelinden yaralanılmıştır. Volatilitenin normal bir ekonomik konjonktürde nispeten
daha dar bir bant içinde olması olağandır. Buna karşın küresel riskin yüksek
olduğu kriz dönemlerinde ise daha büyük bir aralıkta seyretmesi beklenen bir
durumdur. Dolayısıyla risk açısından farklılık gösteren ekonomik koşullarda,
piyasalar arası oynaklık yayılımı davranışlarının da farklılaşması rasyonel bir
beklentidir. Bu açıdan araştırmada söz konusu durumu dikkate alan Threshold VAR
(TVAR) modellemesi kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda küresel riskin düşük
olduğu rejimde BİST 100 endeksi üzerindeki yayılım etkisinin göreli olarak
düşük olduğu, buna karşın küresel riskin yüksek olduğu rejimde ise söz konusu
etkinin nispeten yüksek olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. 
Buna ek olarak BİST 100 endeksinin bu gelişmiş ülkelere ait 3 endeks
içerisinden en yoğun olarak S&P endeksinden etkilendiği bulgulanmıştır.

References

  • Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., & Nguyen, D. K. (2012). On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness. Energy Economics, 34(2), 611-617.
  • Baele, L. (2005). Volatility spillover effects in European equity markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(02), 373-401. Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers Francis X. Diebold a,b, Kamil Yilmaz. International Journal of Forecasting 28 (2012) 57–66
  • Billio, M., & Pelizzon, L. (2003). Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 13(4), 323-340.
  • Black*, A. J., & McMillan, D. G. (2004). Long run trends and volatility spillovers in daily exchange rates. Applied Financial Economics, 14(12), 895-907.
  • Brooks, C.. (2002). Introductory econometrics for finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Brooks, R., and M. D. Del Negro. (2002) “International Diversification Strategies.” Unpubl. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2002-23 (2002).
  • Christiansen (2007). Volatility‐spillover effects in European bond markets. European Financial Management, 13(5), 923-948.
  • Claessens, S., & Forbes, K. J. (2001). International financial contagion. Boston, Dordrecht and London: Kluwer Academic Publishers
  • Engle, R. F., Ito, T. and Lin,W.-L. (1990). Meteor-showers or heatwaves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Econometrica, 58, 525–542.
  • Gamba-Santamaria, S., Gomez-Gonzalez, J. E., Hurtado-Guarin, J. L., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2017). Volatility Spillovers among Global Stock Markets: Measuring Total and Directional Effects (No. 983). Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Goetzmann, W. N., Li, L., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2005). Long-term global market correlations. The Journal of Business, 78(1), 1-38.
  • Griffin, J. M., & Karolyi, G. A. (1998). Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies. Journal of financial economics, 50(3), 351-373.
  • Heston, S. L., and K. G. Rouwenhorst (1994). Does Industrial Structure Explain the Benefits of International Diversification?. Journal of Financial Economics, 36, 3–27.
  • Hong, Y. (2001). A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates. Journal of Econometrics, 103(1), 183-224.
  • Inagaki, K. (2007). Testing for volatility spillover between the British pound and the euro. Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 161-174.
  • Li, H. (2007). International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: A multivariate GARCH analysis. Applied Financial Economics, 17(4), 285-297.
  • Li, Y., & Giles, D. E. (2015). Modeling volatility spillover effects between developed stock markets and Asian emerging stock markets. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 20(2), 155-177.
  • Lin,W.-L., Engle, R. F. and Ito, T. (1994). Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility. Review of Financial Studies, 7, 507–538.
  • Majdoub, J., & Mansour, W. (2014). Islamic equity market integration and volatility spillover between emerging and US stock markets. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 29, 452-470.
  • Mishra, A. K., Swain, N., & Malhotra, D. K. (2007). Volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange markets: Indian evidence. International Journal of Business, 12(3), 343.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C., & Soytas, U. (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • Ng, A. (2000). Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific–Basin. Journal of international money and finance, 19(2), 207-233.
  • Singh, P., Kumar, B., & Pandey, A. (2010). Price and volatility spillovers across North American, European and Asian stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 19(1), 55-64.
  • Skintzi, V. D., & Refenes, A. N. (2006). Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 16(1), 23-40.
  • So, R. W. (2001). Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), 95-107.
  • Miyakoshi, T. (2003). Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 13(4), 383-399.
  • Theodossiou, P., & Lee, U. (1993). Mean and volatility spillovers across major national stock markets: Further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Research, 16(4), 337-350.
  • Yang, S. Y., & Doong, S. C. (2004). Price and volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates: empirical evidence from the G-7 countries. International Journal of Business and Economics, 3(2), 139.
  • Yilmaz, K. (2010). Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(3), 304-313.

SPILLOVERS OF STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY TO TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS FROM GERMANY, FRANCE, AND AMERICA

Year 2018, Volume: 20 Issue: 2, 171 - 187, 17.08.2018
https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.335534

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the volatility spillover
effects of German, French and American stock market indices on BIST 100 Turkish
stock market index. Dataset consists of daily closing price observations
starting from January 2, 2004, until
February 6, 2017, for indices DAX 30, CAC
40, S&P 500 and BIST 100. E-GARCH(1,1) method has been used to model the
conditional variance. Volatility is in a relatively narrow band under a
non-crisis economic conjuncture. On the other hand, it is expected that the
global risk will be higher during crisis periods. Therefore, the
differentiation in the volatility spillover behavior among the markets while under
different economic conditions is a
rational expectation. In this regard, the Threshold VAR (TVAR) model was used in
the study. In the result of the study, it has been observed that the volatility
spillover effect on the BIST 100 index is relatively low in the regimes where
the global risk is low, whereas the effect is relatively higher in the regime
where the global risk is high. Furthermore, results of analysis also indicate
that S&P is the most influential index to affect BIST 100 both in high and low-risk regimes.

References

  • Arouri, M. E. H., Jouini, J., & Nguyen, D. K. (2012). On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness. Energy Economics, 34(2), 611-617.
  • Baele, L. (2005). Volatility spillover effects in European equity markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(02), 373-401. Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers Francis X. Diebold a,b, Kamil Yilmaz. International Journal of Forecasting 28 (2012) 57–66
  • Billio, M., & Pelizzon, L. (2003). Volatility and shocks spillover before and after EMU in European stock markets. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 13(4), 323-340.
  • Black*, A. J., & McMillan, D. G. (2004). Long run trends and volatility spillovers in daily exchange rates. Applied Financial Economics, 14(12), 895-907.
  • Brooks, C.. (2002). Introductory econometrics for finance. New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Brooks, R., and M. D. Del Negro. (2002) “International Diversification Strategies.” Unpubl. Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 2002-23 (2002).
  • Christiansen (2007). Volatility‐spillover effects in European bond markets. European Financial Management, 13(5), 923-948.
  • Claessens, S., & Forbes, K. J. (2001). International financial contagion. Boston, Dordrecht and London: Kluwer Academic Publishers
  • Engle, R. F., Ito, T. and Lin,W.-L. (1990). Meteor-showers or heatwaves? Heteroskedastic intra-daily volatility in the foreign exchange market. Econometrica, 58, 525–542.
  • Gamba-Santamaria, S., Gomez-Gonzalez, J. E., Hurtado-Guarin, J. L., & Melo-Velandia, L. F. (2017). Volatility Spillovers among Global Stock Markets: Measuring Total and Directional Effects (No. 983). Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Goetzmann, W. N., Li, L., & Rouwenhorst, K. G. (2005). Long-term global market correlations. The Journal of Business, 78(1), 1-38.
  • Griffin, J. M., & Karolyi, G. A. (1998). Another look at the role of the industrial structure of markets for international diversification strategies. Journal of financial economics, 50(3), 351-373.
  • Heston, S. L., and K. G. Rouwenhorst (1994). Does Industrial Structure Explain the Benefits of International Diversification?. Journal of Financial Economics, 36, 3–27.
  • Hong, Y. (2001). A test for volatility spillover with application to exchange rates. Journal of Econometrics, 103(1), 183-224.
  • Inagaki, K. (2007). Testing for volatility spillover between the British pound and the euro. Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 161-174.
  • Li, H. (2007). International linkages of the Chinese stock exchanges: A multivariate GARCH analysis. Applied Financial Economics, 17(4), 285-297.
  • Li, Y., & Giles, D. E. (2015). Modeling volatility spillover effects between developed stock markets and Asian emerging stock markets. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 20(2), 155-177.
  • Lin,W.-L., Engle, R. F. and Ito, T. (1994). Do bulls and bears move across borders? International transmission of stock returns and volatility. Review of Financial Studies, 7, 507–538.
  • Majdoub, J., & Mansour, W. (2014). Islamic equity market integration and volatility spillover between emerging and US stock markets. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 29, 452-470.
  • Mishra, A. K., Swain, N., & Malhotra, D. K. (2007). Volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange markets: Indian evidence. International Journal of Business, 12(3), 343.
  • Nazlioglu, S., Erdem, C., & Soytas, U. (2013). Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets. Energy Economics, 36, 658-665.
  • Ng, A. (2000). Volatility spillover effects from Japan and the US to the Pacific–Basin. Journal of international money and finance, 19(2), 207-233.
  • Singh, P., Kumar, B., & Pandey, A. (2010). Price and volatility spillovers across North American, European and Asian stock markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 19(1), 55-64.
  • Skintzi, V. D., & Refenes, A. N. (2006). Volatility spillovers and dynamic correlation in European bond markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 16(1), 23-40.
  • So, R. W. (2001). Price and volatility spillovers between interest rate and exchange value of the US dollar. Global Finance Journal, 12(1), 95-107.
  • Miyakoshi, T. (2003). Spillovers of stock return volatility to Asian equity markets from Japan and the US. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 13(4), 383-399.
  • Theodossiou, P., & Lee, U. (1993). Mean and volatility spillovers across major national stock markets: Further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Research, 16(4), 337-350.
  • Yang, S. Y., & Doong, S. C. (2004). Price and volatility spillovers between stock prices and exchange rates: empirical evidence from the G-7 countries. International Journal of Business and Economics, 3(2), 139.
  • Yilmaz, K. (2010). Return and volatility spillovers among the East Asian equity markets. Journal of Asian Economics, 21(3), 304-313.
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Sibel Karğın

Koray Kayalıdere

Tuna Can Güleç This is me

Deniz Erer

Publication Date August 17, 2018
Submission Date August 21, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 20 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Karğın, S., Kayalıdere, K., Güleç, T. C., Erer, D. (2018). SPILLOVERS OF STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY TO TURKISH EQUITY MARKETS FROM GERMANY, FRANCE, AND AMERICA. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 20(2), 171-187. https://doi.org/10.16953/deusosbil.335534