Politik İstikrar, Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi Ve Makroekonomik Göstergelerin Askeri Harcamalara Etkisi

Year 2025, Issue: 40, 178 - 196, 25.10.2025

Elif Efe , Üzeyir Aydın

https://doi.org/10.15182/diclesosbed.1655613

Abstract

Askeri harcamalar, dünya genelinde konjonktüre bağlı olarak her dönemde var olan ve ülkelerin kamu harcamaları içerisinde önemli bir pay alan bir unsurdur. Bu çalışmada BRICS-T kapsamında askeri harcamaların enflasyon, dış ticaret dengesi, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, jeopolitik risk endeksi ve politik istikrar endeksi göstergelerinden etkilenip etkilenmediği araştırılmıştır. Seçilen göstergelerin askeri harcamalar üzerindeki etkisi Panel ARDL/PMG analizi ile incelenmiştir. Askeri harcamalar ile politik istikrar endeksi ve enflasyon arasında uzun dönemli negatif yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi, jeopolitik risk endeksi ve gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla arasında ise pozitif yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmuştur. Dış ticaret dengesi ile askeri harcamalar arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilememiştir.

Keywords

Askeri Harcamalar , Politik İstikrar Endeksi , Jeopolitik Risk Endeksi , Panel ARDL , BRICS-T

The Effect of Macroeconomic Indicators, Geopolitical Risk And Political Stability Index on Military Expenditures

Abstract

Military expenditures are an element that exists in every period depending on the global dynamics and take a significant share of the public spending of countries. In this study, it was investigated whether military expenditures within the scope of BRICS-T were affected by inflation, balance of trade, gross domestic product, geopolitical risk index, and political stability index indicators. The impact of selected indicators on military expenditures was examined with panel ARDL/PMG analysis. A long-term negative causal relationship has been identified between military expenditures and both the political stability index and inflation, whereas a positive causal relationship has been found between military expenditures and both the geopolitical risk index and gross domestic product. No significant relationship was found between balance of trade and military expenditures.

Keywords

Military expenditures , Political stability index , Geopolitical risk index , Panel ARDL , BRICS-T

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