Abstract

Bu makale 20 ülkeden 1981-94 yılları için toplanan zaman serilerini kulla­narak, hisse senedi pazarlarının gelişm işlik derecesi ile ekonom ik büyüm e arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Bu amaçla Granger’in nedensellik tanımına dayanan Sims testi kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak tüm ülkeleri ve yılları kap­sayan panel veri tabanı kullanılarak nedensellik yönü araştırılmış, daha sonra aynı ilişki ayrı ayrı her ülke için o ülkeye ait zaman serileri kullanılarak irdelenmiştir. Panel veri tabanı kullanılarak yapılan analizde, borsaların gelişmişlik düzeyi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında geri besleme ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Ülke bazında yapılan analizlerde kesin sonuçlara ulaşılamamışsa da, borsalarla ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha güçlü olduğu izlenimi edinilmiştir.

Keywords

• Hisse Senedi Pazarı, ekonom ik büyüme, nedensellik testi

STOCK MARKETS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH : A CAUSALITY TEST

Abstract

This article examines causality relationships between stock markets and economic growth based on the time series data compiled from 20 countries for the years 1981 through 1994 . Sims' causality test based on Granger definition of causality was used . At first, panel data covering all countries over the entire analysis period were used to detect the direction of causation. Secondly, causal relations were investigated for each country, in isolation, using the respective time series data. Analysis based on the panel data revealed a two-way causation between stock market development and economic growth. Country analyses, on the other hand, could not lead to precise conclusions, but suggested a somewhat stronger link between stock market development and economic growth in developing countries.

Keywords

• Stock Markets, Economic Growth, Causality Test

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