Abstract

Bu makale üç körfez ülkesi olan Bahreyn, Suudi Arabistan ve Kuveytte 1973­1988 yılları arasındaki 64 üç aylık dönem boyunca finansal ve ekonomik büyüklük­ler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini irdelemektedir. Patrick’in gelişmenin farklı aşa­malarındaki farklı nedensellik ilişkileri savı da analiz döneminin 1971-81 ve 1982­88 alt dönemlerine bölünmesi suretiyle sınanmaktadır. Araştırmada kullanılan finan­sal değişkenler M1, M2 ve toplam banka kredileri; ekonomik değişkenler ise her üç ülke için toplam ihracat, Kuveyt için ise ayrıca kamu harcamalarıdır. Araştırmada Granger’in nedensellik tanımına dayanan Sims modeli kullanılmış ve şu genel eğilimler saptanmıştır : Analiz döneminin tümü için nedensellik ilişkisi Kuveyt’te finansal değişkenlerden ekonomik değişkenlere doğru, Bahreyn’de ise ekonomik değişkenlerden finansal değişkenlere doğrudur. Suudi Arabistan için genelleme olanağı bulunamamıştır. 1973-81 alt döneminde Bahrain ve Suudi Arabistanda arz güdümlü ilişki saptanmış, Kuveytte ise net bir nedensellik ilişkisi görülememiştir. İkinci alt dönem olan 1982-88 döneminde ise her üç ülkede de talep güdümlü ilişki gözlenmiştir. Bu bulgular her üç ülkede 1973-1988 dönemindeki genel ekonomik gelişmelerle uyumludur.

Keywords

• Finansal gelişme, körfez ülkeleri, nedensellik testi

CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN GULF COUNTRIES

Abstract

This paper examines the causal relationships between financial and economic aggregates in three Gulf countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, over the 64?quarterly period from 1973 to 1988.Patrick's causality patterns at different stages of economic development were also investigated by dividing the entire analysis period into the sub-periods of 1973?81, and 1982?88. Financial variables used were M1, M2 and the total bank credits. Exports in all the three countries plus government expenditures in Kuwait were employed as proxies to GDP. Sims' causality model which is based on Granger's definition was utilized and the following general patterns were detected: For the entire analysis period causality ran from financial to economic variables in Kuwait, but from economic to financial variables in Bahrain. While no generalization was possible for Saudi Arabia for the first sub-period l973?81 , a supply-leading phenomenon was dominant in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Kuwait the results were mixed. In the second sub-period 1982?88 , the dominant relationship was demand following in all the three countries. These results were seen in conformity with the economic trends in these countries over the study period.

Keywords

• Financial Development, Gulf Countries, Causality Test

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