Döviz Kuru Belirsizliğinin İhracata Etkisi : Türkiye Örneği

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye'deki döviz kuru belirsizliği ile ihracat arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın örnek periyodunu Türkiye'nin sabit kur sistemini terk edip esnek kur sistemine geçtiği 1 Mayıs 1981 ile kurların dalgalanmaya bırakıldığı 22 Şubat 2001 arasındaki dönem oluşturmaktadır. Üçer aylık verilerin kullanıldığı çalışma sonucunda, Türkiye'de döviz kuru belirsizliğinin ihracatı olumsuz etkilediği bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç hem uzun dönem hem de kısa dönem için geçerlidir.

Keywords

• Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği, İhracat, Eşbütünleşim Testi, Hata Düzeltme Modeli

THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON EXPORTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

In this paper we examined the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and exports in Turkey. Sample period of the study is 1981, May 1, the date Turkey introduced flexible exchange rate system after quiting fixed exchange rate system, and 2001, February 22 when exchange rates were left floating. The results of this study, in which quarterly data are used, indicate that exchange rate uncertainty affects exports negatively in Turkey. This finding is valid both for long-run and short-run

Keywords

• Exchange rate uncertainty, exports, cointegration test, error correction model

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