1994-1995 MEKSİKA PEZO KRİZİ’NİN EKONOMETRİK BİR ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu makale 1994-1995 Meksika Pezo Krizi’nin ardındaki faktörleri aylık 20 makroekonomik, siyasi ve finans sektörü değişkenleriyle oluşturulan bir probit modeli kullanarak tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Probit regresyonunun neticesinde anlamlı değişkenler olarak siyasi istikrarsızlık, döviz rezervleri, yerel kredi/GSMH, borç ve mevduat oranı arasındaki fark, ulusal tasarruflar ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım/GSMH değerleri alınmıştır. Bulgular, değişkenlerin, enflasyon, banka rezervleri/banka aktifleri, ihracat büyüme oranı ve borç ve mevduat oranı arasındaki fark haricinde beklenildiği şekilde ortaya çıktığını göstermektedir

Keywords

• Meksika Pezo krizi, finansal krizler, probit modeli

AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MEXICAN PESO CRISIS OF 1994-1995

Abstract

This article aims at identifying the factors behind the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-1995 through building a probit model incorporating 20 monthly macroeconomic, political, and financial sector variables from 1970:1 - 1995:1. As a result of the probit regressions, strong evidence emerges that the significant variables are political instability, foreign exchange reserves, domestic credit/GDP, lending and deposit rate spread, national savings, and foreign direct investment/GDP. Evidence further indicates that the signs of the variables are mostly in line with our expectations, with the exception of inflation, bank reserves/bank assets, export growth, and lending and deposit rate spread.

Keywords

• Mexican Peso Crisis, Financial Crises, Probit Model

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