RÜZGAR HIZI DAĞILIMININ TAHMİN EDİLMESİ İÇİN İSTATİSTİKSEL BİR YAKLAŞIM: GELİBOLU BÖLGESİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Rüzgar enerjisi yenilenebilir ve çevre dostu bir enerjidir. Rüzgar enerjisi atmosferi kirleten fosil yakıtlarıyla kıyaslandığında, temiz enerji kaynağı için bir alternatiftir. Rüzgar enerjisinin potansiyelinin en önemli parametresi rüzgar hızıdır. Rüzgar hızı rassal olay olarak tanımlandığı için rüzgar hız tahminlerinde istatistiksel yöntemleri kullanmak yararlıdır. Bu nedenle rüzgar hızı, olasılık dağılımları kullanılarak tahmin edilebilir. Bir bölgenin rüzgar hızı enerji potansiyelinin değerlendirilmesi ve tahmini için geçerli bir olasılık dağılımının belirlenmesi çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada Gelibolu bölgesinde ölçülen rüzgar hızı verilerini temsil edebilecek uygun bir olasılık dağılımı 10 dağılım karşılaştırılarak belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Bu amaçla üç uyum iyiliği testi ve grafik yöntemi kullanılmıştır

Keywords

• Rüzgar hızı, Tahmin, Olasılık dağılımı, İstatistiksel uyum iyiliği testleri

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATE THE WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTION: THE CASE OF GELIBOLU REGION

Abstract

Wind energy is renewable and environment friendly. It is an alternative clear energy source compared to the fossil fuels that pollute the lower layer of atmosphere. The most important parameter of the wind energy is the wind speed. Statistical methods are useful for estimating wind speed because it is a random phenomena. For this reason, wind speed probabilities can be estimated by using probability distributions. An accurate determination of probability distribution for wind speed values is very important in evaluating wind speed energy potential of a region. In this study, first, we tried to determine appropriate theoretical pdf probability density function by comparing 10 pdf for the wind speed data measured for Gelibolu region. In determining proper pdf , an approach consisting of 3 goodness of fit tests and fitted graphics have been used.

Keywords

• Wind speed, Estimation, Probability distribution, Statistical goodness of fit tests

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