İKİZ AÇIKLAR HİPOTEZİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Türkiye Ekonomisinde,24 Ocak 1980’de kabul edilen yapısal değişim ve dönüşüm kararları ile dışa açık büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. Dışa açık büyüme modelinin benimsenmesi ile birlikte kronik dış ticaret açıkları ile karşılaşılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye Ekonomisi için ikiz açıklar hipotezini 1980-2009 arasındaki dönem için test etmektir. Bu kapsamda, bütçe açıkları ve cari işlemler açıkları arasındaki ilişki ve bu ilişkinin yönü VAR Granger testi ve regresyon aracılığı ile araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, bütçe açıklarından cari işlemler açıklarına doğru nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Budget Deficits, Current Account Deficits, Causality, Bütçe Açıkları, Cari İşlemler Açıkları, Nedensellik

TWIN DEFICIT HYPOTHESIS: EVIDENCE FROM THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Abstract

The Turkish economy has functioned according to the outwardoriented growth model since 24January 1980, when structural changes and transformation decisions were agreed upon. However, chronic external deficit problems have been encountered since the adoption of the outward-oriented growth model. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis of twin deficits for period 1980-2009 in Turkish economy. In this context, the relationship between budget deficits and current account deficits have been examined theoretically. And the direction of this relationship has been analyzed empirically by means of the VAR Granger causality test and regression analysis. The findings reveal that there is in fact a causality relationship from the budget deficits towards current account deficits

Keywords

• Budget Deficits, Current Account Deficits, Causality

References

1. AKBOSTANCI, E. & TUNÇ, G.İ. (2002). Turkish twin deficits: an error correction model of trade balance. ERC Working Papers in Economics, No: 01/06.
2. BACHMAN, D.D. (1992). Why is the US current account deficit so large? evidence from vector autoregressions. Southern Economic Journal, 59(2), 232-240.
3. BARRO, R.J. (1989). The Ricardian approach to budget deficits. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3 (2), 37-54.
4. DARRAT, A.F. (1988). Have large budget deficits caused rising trade deficits. Southern Economic Journal, 54 (4), 879–887.
5. ENDERS, W. (2004). Applied econometric time series, (Wiley series in probability and statistics), 2nd ed., New Jersey.
6. ENGLE, R.F., GRANGER, W.J. (1987). Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-176.
7. FELDSTEIN, M. (1992). The Budget deficit and trade deficit aren’t eeally twins. NBER working paper, No:3966.
8. KHALID, A.M., GUAN, T.W. (1999). Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: cross- country comparations. Empirical Economics, 24 (3), 389–402.

9. PAHLAVANI, M., SALEH, A.S. (2009). Budget account deficits in the philippines: a causal relationship?. American Journal of Applied Sciences, 6 (8), 1515-150.
10. VAMVOUKAS, G.A. (1999). The twin deficit phenomenon: evidence from Greece. Applied Economics, 31 (9), 1093–1100.
11. YILDIRIM, K., KARAMAN, D., TAŞDEMİR, M.(2008), Makroekonomi.8. bs., Ankara: Seçkin.
12. WALTER, E., LEE, B.S. (1990). Current account and budget deficits twins or distant cousins?. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72 (3), 373-381.
13. ZIETZ, J., PEMBERTON, D.K. (1990). The budget deficits and trade deficits: a simultaneous equation model. Southern Economic Journal, 57 (1), 23-34.