TÜRKİYE VE SEÇİLİ AB ÜLKELERİ AÇISINDAN ENFLASYON SÜREKLİLİĞİNİN ANALİZİ

Abstract

İktisat politikalarının uygulanması ve başarı koşulunun sağlanabilme açısından makro değişkenlerde görülen şokların geçici mi yoksa kalıcı mı olduğu oldukça önemlidir. Politika uygulayıcılarının kredibilitesini artıran aynı zamanda iktisadi birimler üzerinde olumlu beklenti yönetiminin oluşmasına aracılık eden anlayışın, makro değişkenlerdeki şoklara verilen tepki hızını algılaması daha istikrarlı bir ekonomik sürecin yaşanmasına neden olmaktadır. Bu noktadan hareketle 11 AB ülkesi ve Türkiye için enflasyon direncinin araştırıldığı bu çalışmada Almanya, İtalya ve Portekiz ülkeleri için bir şok sonrası enflasyonun kendi ortalama değerine hızlı bir şekilde yakınsadığı, ilgili ülkelere ait enflasyon serisinin trend durağan olduğu ve enflasyon direncinin düşük düzeyde kaldığı bulunmuştur. Lucas eleştirisi dikkate alındığında ise Almanya, Avusturya, Finlandiya, Fransa, Hollanda ve İtalya’da enflasyon kendi ortalama düzeyine hızlı bir şekilde geri dönmekte ve enflasyon direnci ilgili ülkelerde düşük düzeyde kalmaktadır.

Keywords

• Enflasyon Sürekliliği, Grid Bootstrap, Uyarlama Hızı

ANALYSIS OF INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN TERMS OF TURKEY AND SELECTED EU COUNTRIES

Abstract

In terms of implementation and provision of success of economic policies, it is an important issue that the resulting shocks in macro variables caused from a variety of reasons are temporary or permanent. The comprehension that increases policy makers’ credibility and also mediates the formation of expectations management on economic units causes a more stable economic process when this comprehension perceives the response rate given to the shocks in macro variables. This study searches the persistence of inflation for 11 EU countries and Turkey reaches the following evidence; for Germany, Italy and Portugal, an inflation existing after a shock converges fast to its own average value, the inflation series related to these countries is stationary and inflation persistence has remained at a low-level for these countries. When the Lucas criticism is considered, inflation returns to it’s own average level rapidly and the inflation persistence is in a low level for Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Netherland and Italy

Keywords

• Inflation Persistence, Grid Bootstrap, Speed of Adjustment

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