ÇKE HİPOTEZİ YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİ İÇİN GEÇERLİ Mİ? PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 4 yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için ÇKE hipotezi panel veri analizi ile test edilmektedir. Fakat öncelikle, eğim parametrelerinin heterojenliği ve yatay kesit bağımlılığının varlığı test edilmektedir. Daha sonra, heterojenite ve bağımsızlık durumu altında, Im vd. 2003 , Maddala ve Wu 1999 ile Choi 2001 ’e ait panel birim kök testleri, Westerlund 2007 ’un bootstrap ECM eşbütünleşme testi ve Pedroni 2000 ’ye ait FMOLS tahmincisi kullanılmaktadır. Son aşamada ise, panel hata düzeltme modeli PVECM oluşturularak, kısa ve uzun dönem nedenselliğinin yönü tespit edilmektedir. Sonuçlar, sadece uzun dönemde ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketiminden, emisyonuna doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ulaşılan bu sonuç, uzun dönemde söz konusu ülke örneklemi için birtakım politika önerileri de sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi, Küresel Isınma, Emisyonu, Panel Veri Analizi

TESTING THE EKC HYPOTHESIS FOR 4 EMERGING COUNTRIES: PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to test the EKC hypothesis for 4 emerging countries through panel data analysis. However, the presence of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence is first tested. After that, under the presence of heterogeneity and independence, panel unit root tests of Im et al. 2003 , Maddala and Wu 1999 , and Choi 2001 , bootstrap ECM cointegration test of Westerlund 2007 , and FMOLS estimator of Pedroni 2000 are applied. At the last stage, based on PVECM panel vector error correction model , the direction of short and long-run causalities are defined. The results imply that there is only a unidirectional long-run causality running from economic growth and energy consumption toemissions. This result also provides some policy implications for the long-run

Keywords

• Environmental Kuznets Curve, Global Warming, CO2 Emissions, Panel Data Analysis

References

1. ACARAVCI, A., ÖZTÜRK, İ. (2010). On the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Europe. Energy, 35, 5412-5420. ss.
2. AKBOSTANCI, E., AŞIK, S. T., TUNÇ, G. İ. (2009). The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy, 37, 861– 867. ss.
3. AL-MULALI, U. (2011). Oil consumption, CO2 emission and economic growth in MENA countries. Energy, 36, 6165- 6171. Ss.
4. ANG, J.B. (2007). CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France. Energy Policy, 35, 4772–4778. ss.
5. APERGIS, N., PAYNE, E. (2009). CO2 emissions, energy usage, and output in Central America. Energy Policy, 37, 3282–3286. ss.
6. APERGIS, N., PAYNE, E. (2010). The emissions, energy consumption, and growth nexus: Evidence from the commonwealth of independent states. Energy Policy, 38, 650–655. ss.
7. AROURI, M.E.H., YOUSSEF, A. B., M’HENNİ, H., RAULT, C. (2012). Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries. Energy Policy, 45, 342–349. ss.
8. BALTAGI, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, England:John Wiley&Sons Ltd.

9. BREUSCH, T.S., PAGAN, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253. ss.
10. CHOI, I. (2001). Unit roots tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2), 229–272. ss.
11. ESTEVE, V., TAMARIT, C. (2012). Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between CO2 and income: The Environmental Kuznets Curve in Spain, 1857–2007. Energy Economics, 34, 2148–2156. ss.
12. FARHANI, S., REJEB, J. B. (2012). Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Panel Data for MENA Region. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(2), 71-81. ss.
13. FODHA, M., ZAGHDOUD, O. (2010). Economic growth and pollutant emissions in Tunisia: An empirical analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve. Energy Policy, 38, 1150–1156. ss.
14. GHOSH, S. (2010). Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach. Energy Policy, 38, 3008–3014. ss.
15. HAGGAR, M. H. (2012. Greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis from Canadian industrial sector perspective. Energy Economics, 34, 358-364. ss.
16. HALICIOĞLU, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37, 1156–1164. ss.
17. HANSEN, B.E., SEO, B. (2002). Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models. Journal of Econometrics, 110, 293–318. ss.
18. IM, K.S., PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74. ss.