EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE BORSA GETİRİSİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Finansal gelişme ekonomik kalkınmanın en önemli belirleyicilerinden birisidir. Türkiye’de finansal gelişme 1980’li yılların başında başlamış ve halen de devam etmektedir. Geçen süre içerisinde finansal gelişme ile ekonomik kalkınma arasında ciddi bir etkileşim yaşanagelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de 1998Q22014Q2 döneminde borsa getirisi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, iki değişken arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmek amacıyla Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto ve frekans dağılımı nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. Bootstrap tabanlı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmamaktadır. Fakat, frekans dağılımı nedensellik testi göstermektedir ki; borsa getirisi kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümenin ve ekonomik büyüme de orta dönemde borsa getirisinin nedenidir

Keywords

• Finansal Gelişme, Borsa Getirisi, Ekonomik Büyüme, Türkiye

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND STOCK RETURNS: AN EXAMPLE FROM TURKEY

Abstract

Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term.

Keywords

• Financial Development, Stock Returns, Economic Growth, Turkey

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