İhracat-Çıktı Büyümesi Bağlantısının Tekrar İncelenmesi: Japonya İçin Granger Nedensellik ve Bootstrap Yaklasımından Bulgular

Abstract

Bu çalışmada İhracata Dayalı Büyüme İDB hipotezinin geçerliliğini test etmek amacıyla ihracat ve çıktı büyümesi arasındaki neden-sonuç ilişkisi modifiye edilmiş teorik bir çerçevede Japonya ekonomisi için incelenmektedir. İDB hipotezinin geçerliliğinin test edilmesi birçok ampirik çalışmaya konu olmakla birlikte, bu çalışmaların çoğunun olası gelir tanımlama problemini göz ardı etmeleri, çalışmamızın temel motivasyon unsurlarından birisi olmuştur. Ayrıca çalışmamız 1992 Japonya ekonomik krizini dikkate alması bakımından da İDB hipotezini test eden diğer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmamızda Japonya’nın ekonomik büyümesini temsilen dikkate alınan sanayi çıktısı ve mal ihracatı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, temel kontrol değişkenler kullanılarak Granger nedensellik ve kaldıraçlı Bootstrap Yaklaşımı aracılığıyla analiz edilmektedir. Gerek Granger nedensellik analizinden gerekse Bootstrap yaklaşımından elde edilen bulgular, ihracattan çıktı büyümesine doğru tek yönlü nedenselliğin varlığını doğrulamamaktadır. İhracatı teşvik politikalarının Japonya’nın ekonomik büyümesine ivme kazandırmakta etkin bir araç olarak kullanılamayacağına işaret eden bu bulgu, ekonomik büyümeye hız kazandırmakta uygun stratejiler geliştirmek için politika yapıcılara önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır

Keywords

• İhracata Dayalı Büyüme, Granger Nedensellik, kaldıraçlı Bootstrap Yaklasımı, Japonya

Revisiting Export-Output Growth Nexus: Findings from Granger Causality and Leveraged Bootstrap Approach for Japan

Abstract

The study investigates the causal nexus between export and output growth of Japan to identify the validity of the export-led growth ELG hypothesis in a modified theoretical setting. The study is unique in the sense that it takes the Japanese crisis of 1992 into account and also addresses the possible income identification problem that most of the earlier studies largely ignored. The direction and extent to which the explanatory variables, namely, exports, imports, capital expenditure, total labor productivity and a dummy representing the crisis affect the industrial output are investigated employing both Granger causality and Leveraged Bootstrap Simulation Techniques. Both of the approaches suggest that the relationship between exports and output growth is not unidirectional which implies that export promotion cannot be regarded as a tool to promote economic growth for Japan that has important implications for policymakers to set suitable strategies to boost its economic growth.

Keywords

• Export-led Growth, Granger Causality, Leveraged Bootstrap Approach, Japan.

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