Öz
Bu makale 20 ülkeden 1981-94 yılları için toplanan zaman serilerini kullanarak, hisse senedi pazarlarının gelişm işlik derecesi ile ekonom ik büyüm e arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini incelemektedir. Bu amaçla Granger’in nedensellik tanımına dayanan Sims testi kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak tüm ülkeleri ve yılları kapsayan panel veri tabanı kullanılarak nedensellik yönü araştırılmış, daha sonra aynı ilişki ayrı ayrı her ülke için o ülkeye ait zaman serileri kullanılarak irdelenmiştir. Panel veri tabanı kullanılarak yapılan analizde, borsaların gelişmişlik düzeyi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında geri besleme ilişkisi saptanmıştır. Ülke bazında yapılan analizlerde kesin sonuçlara ulaşılamamışsa da, borsalarla ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin gelişmekte olan ülkelerde daha güçlü olduğu izlenimi edinilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- BENCHIVENGA, V. R. , Smith, B. D., and Starr, R. M.(1996), "Equity Martkets, Transaction Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration" The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10(2), pp. 241-265.
- BENCHIVENGA, V. R. , Smith, B. D.(1991), "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth" The Review o f Economic Studies, Vol. 58, pp 195-209.
- DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. and Levine, R. (1996), "Stock M arket Development and Financial Intermediaries:Stylized Facts" The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10(2), pp.291-321.
- DEVEREUX, M. B. and Smith, G. W. (1994), "International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth" International Economic Review, Vol. 35(4), pp.535-550.
- GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969), "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric M odels and Cross Spectral M ethods", Econometrica, Vol. 37, pp.424-438.
- GREENW OOD, J., Jovanovich, B. (1990) "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution o f Income" Journal o f Political Economy, Vol.98, pp.1076- 1104.
- GÜRSOY, C. T., Al-Aali, H.(2000), "Causal Relationships Between Financial and Economic Development In G ulf Countries" Doğuş University Journal, Vol. 1, pp.124-134.
- JAPELLI, T. and Pagano, M. (1994), "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints" The Quarterly Journal o f Economics, Vol. 109(1), pp. 93-109.
- LEVINE, R.(1991), "Stock M arkets, Growth, and Tax Policy", Journal of Finance, Vol. 46(4), pp. 1445-1465.
- LEVINE, R., ZERVOS, S. (1996), "Stock M arket Development and Long -R u n Growth", The World Bank Economic Review, Vol 10(2), pp.323-339.
- OBSTFELD, M. (1994), " Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth" American Economic Review, Vol. 84(5), pp. 1310-1329.
- PATRICK, H. T. (1966), "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries", Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 14, pp. 174-189.
- SIMS, G. (1972) "Money, Income and Causality" American Economic Review, Vol 62, pp. 540-552.
- STIGLITZ, J. E. (1985), "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 17(2), pp. 133-152.
Öz
This article examines causality relationships between stock markets and economic growth based on the time series data compiled from 20 countries for the years 1981 through 1994 . Sims' causality test based on Granger definition of causality was used . At first, panel data covering all countries over the entire analysis period were used to detect the direction of causation. Secondly, causal relations were investigated for each country, in isolation, using the respective time series data. Analysis based on the panel data revealed a two-way causation between stock market development and economic growth. Country analyses, on the other hand, could not lead to precise conclusions, but suggested a somewhat stronger link between stock market development and economic growth in developing countries.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- BENCHIVENGA, V. R. , Smith, B. D., and Starr, R. M.(1996), "Equity Martkets, Transaction Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration" The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10(2), pp. 241-265.
- BENCHIVENGA, V. R. , Smith, B. D.(1991), "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth" The Review o f Economic Studies, Vol. 58, pp 195-209.
- DEMİRGÜÇ-KUNT, A. and Levine, R. (1996), "Stock M arket Development and Financial Intermediaries:Stylized Facts" The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10(2), pp.291-321.
- DEVEREUX, M. B. and Smith, G. W. (1994), "International Risk Sharing and Economic Growth" International Economic Review, Vol. 35(4), pp.535-550.
- GRANGER, C. W. J. (1969), "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric M odels and Cross Spectral M ethods", Econometrica, Vol. 37, pp.424-438.
- GREENW OOD, J., Jovanovich, B. (1990) "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution o f Income" Journal o f Political Economy, Vol.98, pp.1076- 1104.
- GÜRSOY, C. T., Al-Aali, H.(2000), "Causal Relationships Between Financial and Economic Development In G ulf Countries" Doğuş University Journal, Vol. 1, pp.124-134.
- JAPELLI, T. and Pagano, M. (1994), "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints" The Quarterly Journal o f Economics, Vol. 109(1), pp. 93-109.
- LEVINE, R.(1991), "Stock M arkets, Growth, and Tax Policy", Journal of Finance, Vol. 46(4), pp. 1445-1465.
- LEVINE, R., ZERVOS, S. (1996), "Stock M arket Development and Long -R u n Growth", The World Bank Economic Review, Vol 10(2), pp.323-339.
- OBSTFELD, M. (1994), " Risk-taking, Global Diversification, and Growth" American Economic Review, Vol. 84(5), pp. 1310-1329.
- PATRICK, H. T. (1966), "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries", Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 14, pp. 174-189.
- SIMS, G. (1972) "Money, Income and Causality" American Economic Review, Vol 62, pp. 540-552.
- STIGLITZ, J. E. (1985), "Credit Markets and the Control of Capital" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 17(2), pp. 133-152.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Temmuz 2000 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2000 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 2 |