TÜRKİYE'DE KAYITDIŞI EKONOMİNİN TAHMİNİ

Year 2003, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 15 - 30, 01.01.2003

Hakan Çetintaş Hasan Vergil

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1971 ve 2000 yılları arasında Türkiye'de kayıtdışı ekonominin büyüklüğü Tanzi'nin metodolojisinden yararlanılarak ekonometrik olarak tahmine çalışılmıştır. Nakit para talebi kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, 2000 yılında kayıtdışı ekonominin resmi ekonomiye oranı %24 olarak tahmin edilmiştir.

Keywords

Kayıtdışı Ekonomi, Nakit Para Talebi

ESTI MA TION OF UNDERGROUND ECONOMY IN TURKEY

Abstract

in ihis study, size of the undergroıınd economy in Tıırkey is estimated econometrically by ıısing Tanzi's melhodology in period 1971-2000. According to currency demand approach, the ratio ofthe undergroıınd economy to offıcial one is estimated 24 percent in 2000.

Keywords

Undergroıınd Economy, Currency Demand.

References

• ADAM, M.C. & GINSBURGH, V. (1985) The Effects of irregular markets on macroeconomic policy : some estimates for Belgium", European Economic Review, 29(1), pp. 15-33.
• Bank of Canada Review. (1994) The Demand for currency and the ımdergroımd economy, http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/publications/review/r944b.pdf. [Accessed : 03.05.2002].
• DESSY, S. & PALLAGE, S. (2001) Taxes ineçuality and size of the informal sector, http : //www.ecn.ulaval.ca/w3/professeurs/01-13.pdf. [Accessed : 13.04.2002].
• DICKEY, D.A. & FULLER, W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74 (366), pp. 427-431.
• DPT. (2001) Sekizinci Beş Yıllık Kalkınma Planı Kayıtdışı Ekonomi Özel İhtisas Komisyonu Raporu, Ankara.
• FLEMING, M.H. & ROMAN, J., FARRELL, G. (2000) The Shadow economy, Journal of International Affairs, 53 (2), pp. 387-409.
• FREY, B.S. & SCHNEIDER, F. (2000) informal and underground economy, International Encyclopedia of Social and Behavioral Science, Bd. 12 Economics, Amsterdam, Elsevier Science Publishing Company.
• FREY, B.S. & WECK-HANNEMAN, H. (1984) The Hidden economy as an unobserved variable, European Economic Review, 26 (1), pp.33-53.
• GERMANANGUE-DEBARE, M. (1996) A Hidden enemy, Unesco Courier, 49 (6), pp.22-24.
• JOHANSEN, S. (1991) Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models, Econometrica, 59 (6), pp.1551-1580.
• LOAYZA, N.A. (1997) The Economics informal sector, a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America, The IVorld Bank Policy Research IVorking Paper, Paper No : 1727.
• ÖĞÜNÇ, F. & YILMAZ, G. (2000) Estimating underground economy in Turkey, The Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey, Discussion Paper.
• PROKHOROV, A. (2001a) 777e IVorld unobserved economy : defınition, measurement, and optimality considerations, http://www.msu.edu/~prohorov /a.pdf [Accessed : 19.04.2002].
• . (2001b) The Russian underground economy as a hidden variable, http://www.msu.edu/~prohorov/cleveland.pdf. [Accessed : 19.04.2002].
• SCHNEIDER, F. (2000a) The Growth of the shadow economy in the OECD : some preliminary explanations, Journal Of International Affairs, 53 (2), pp. 413-431.
• . (2000b) Dimensions of the shadow economy, Independet Review, 5(1), pp.81-91.
• ULUS, M. (2001) Unemployment insurance and underground economy, http:// www .univ-evrv.fr/PagesHtml/laboratoires/Epee/ T2M/programme/Papiers/ Ulus.pdf. [Accessed : 03.05.2002].