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YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA TÜRKİYE İÇİN İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİNİN SINANMASI

Year 2009, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 324 - 335, 01.07.2009

Veli Yılancı

Abstract

Bu çalışmada 1923-2007 yılları arasındaki işsizlik oranları kullanılarak Türkiye’de işsizlik histerisinin var olup olmadığı sınanmıştır. Bu amaçla, kırılmalı birim kök testlerinden Perron, Zivot-Andrews ZA , Lumsdaine – Papell LP ile bir ve iki kırılmalı LM birim kök testleri kullanılarak işsizlik oranlarının incelenen dönem boyunca durağan olup olmadığı sınanmıştır. ZA ve LP birim kök testlerine göre histeri etkisinin varlığını gösteren yapısal kırılmasız birim kök temel hipotezi kabul edilirken, Perron ve LM testlerine göre ise yapısal kırılmalı birim kök temel hipotezi kabul edilmiştir. Bu sonuç, zaman boyunca meydana gelen şokların işsizliğin doğal oranında değişimler meydana getirdiğini ve işsizlik üzerinde kalıcı etki yarattığını göstermektedir.

Keywords

İşsizlik Histerisi Yapısal Kırılma Birim Kök Analizi

References

  • ARESTIS, P. ve BIEFANG-FRISANCHO MARISCAL, I. (2000). OECD Unemployment: Structural Breaks and Stationarity. Applied Economics, vol. 32, No.4, pp.399-403.
  • BARIŞIK, S., ÇEVIK, E. İ. (2008). İşsizlikte Histeri Etkisi: Uzun Hafıza Modelleri. Kamu İş, cilt 9, sayı 4, 1-36.ss.
  • BEN-DAVID, D., LUMSDAINE, R., PAPELL, D.H. (2003). Unit Root, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence From Two Structural Breaks. Empirical Economics, vol. 28, no.2, pp.303-319.
  • BLANCHARD, O.J., SUMMERS, L. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. In: S. Fischer (ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • BULUTAY, T. (1995). Employment, Unemployment and Wages in Turkey. Ankara, International Labour Office.
  • CAMARERO, M., TAMARIT, C. (2004). Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries. Economics Letters, vol. 84, no.3, pp.413-417.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, D.K., LEÓN-LEDESMA M. (2007). Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries: What do We Really Know About it?. Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 34, no.2, pp.80-89.
  • FRIEDMAN, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, vol. 58, pp.1–17.
  • GOMES, F., DA SILVA, C.G. (2008). Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil and Chile. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 15, no. 1, pp.53-56.
  • GUSTAVSSON, M., ÖSTERHOLM, P. (2006). Hysteresis and Non-linearities in Unemployment Rates. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 13, no. 9, pp.545-548.
  • KAPETANIOS, G., SHIN, Y., SNELL, A. (2003). Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 112, no.2, pp.359- 379.
  • KÜÇÜKKALE Y. (2001). Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İsteri Üzerine Klasik Bir İnceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tekniği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950- 1995. V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Adana.
  • LEE, C.-C., CHANG, C.-P. (2008). Unemployment Hysteresis in OECD Countries: Centurial Time Series Evidence With Structural Breaks. Economic Modelling, vol. 25, no.2, pp.312–325.
  • LEE, J., STRAZICICH, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85, no.4, pp.1082-1089.
  • LEE, J., STRAZICICH, M.C. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, no.04-17, pp.1- 15.
  • LIBANIO, G.A. (2005). Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Theory, Implications, and Evidence. Nova Economia, vol. 15, no. 3, pp.145-176.
  • LUMSDAINE, R.L., PAPELL, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no.2, pp.212- 218.
  • PAZARLIOĞLU, M. V., ÇEVIK, E.İ. (2007). Ratchet Model: 1939-2005 Dönemi Türkiye Uygulaması. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, cilt 9, sayı 1, 17-34.ss.
  • PAZARLIOĞLU, M. V., ÇEVIK, E.İ. (2005). Ratchet Model Uygulaması: Türkiye Örneği. VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul.
  • PERRON, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, vol. 57, no. 6, pp.1361-1401.
  • PERRON, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 80, no. 2, pp.355-385.
  • PHELPS, E.S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time, Economica, vol. 34, no. 3, pp.254–81.
  • PHELPS, E.S. (1968). Money-wage Dynamics and Labor-market Equilibrium, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, no. 4, pp. 678–711.
  • PHELPS, E. (1994). Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
  • ROMERO-AVILA, D., USABIAGA C. (2007). Unit Root Tests and Persistence of Unemployment: Spain vs. the United States. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 14, no.6, pp.457-461.
  • SCHMIDT P., PHILLIPS, P.C.B. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 54, no. 3, pp.257-287.
  • SESSIONS, J.G. (1994). Unemployment Stigma and Multiple Labour Market Equilibria: A Social-Psychological Explanation of Hysteresis. Labour, vol. 8, no. 3, pp.355-375.
  • TÜİK (2007). İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2006, Ankara, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu.
  • TÜİK (2008). Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması 2007 Yıllık Sonuçları. Haber Bülteni, sayı 36, 1-3.ss.
  • ZIVOT, E., ANDREWS, D. (1992). Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil- Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 10, no. 3, pp.251-270.

ANALYZING THE UNEMPLOYMENT HYSTERESIS FOR TURKEY UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Year 2009, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 324 - 335, 01.07.2009

Veli Yılancı

Abstract

In this study, we examine unemployment hysteresis for Turkey over the period 1923- 2007 by using unit root tests which allow for structural breaks. We test whether unemployment rates are stationary by using Perron, Zivot-Andrews ZA , Lumsdaine – Papell LP and LM unit root tests. According to the ZA and LP tests, we find evidence of hysteresis. We find series as a unit root process with structural breaks according to both Perron and the LM tests. We conclude even transitory shocks have permanent effects on the level of unemployment and can cause natural rate of unemployment to change

Keywords

Unemployment Hysteresis Structural Breaks Unit Root Tests

References

  • ARESTIS, P. ve BIEFANG-FRISANCHO MARISCAL, I. (2000). OECD Unemployment: Structural Breaks and Stationarity. Applied Economics, vol. 32, No.4, pp.399-403.
  • BARIŞIK, S., ÇEVIK, E. İ. (2008). İşsizlikte Histeri Etkisi: Uzun Hafıza Modelleri. Kamu İş, cilt 9, sayı 4, 1-36.ss.
  • BEN-DAVID, D., LUMSDAINE, R., PAPELL, D.H. (2003). Unit Root, Postwar Slowdowns and Long-Run Growth: Evidence From Two Structural Breaks. Empirical Economics, vol. 28, no.2, pp.303-319.
  • BLANCHARD, O.J., SUMMERS, L. (1986). Hysteresis and the European unemployment problem. In: S. Fischer (ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • BULUTAY, T. (1995). Employment, Unemployment and Wages in Turkey. Ankara, International Labour Office.
  • CAMARERO, M., TAMARIT, C. (2004). Hysteresis vs. natural rate of unemployment: new evidence for OECD countries. Economics Letters, vol. 84, no.3, pp.413-417.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, D.K., LEÓN-LEDESMA M. (2007). Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries: What do We Really Know About it?. Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 34, no.2, pp.80-89.
  • FRIEDMAN, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy. American Economic Review, vol. 58, pp.1–17.
  • GOMES, F., DA SILVA, C.G. (2008). Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil and Chile. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 15, no. 1, pp.53-56.
  • GUSTAVSSON, M., ÖSTERHOLM, P. (2006). Hysteresis and Non-linearities in Unemployment Rates. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 13, no. 9, pp.545-548.
  • KAPETANIOS, G., SHIN, Y., SNELL, A. (2003). Testing for a Unit Root in the Nonlinear STAR Framework. Journal of Econometrics, vol. 112, no.2, pp.359- 379.
  • KÜÇÜKKALE Y. (2001). Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İsteri Üzerine Klasik Bir İnceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tekniği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950- 1995. V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Adana.
  • LEE, C.-C., CHANG, C.-P. (2008). Unemployment Hysteresis in OECD Countries: Centurial Time Series Evidence With Structural Breaks. Economic Modelling, vol. 25, no.2, pp.312–325.
  • LEE, J., STRAZICICH, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85, no.4, pp.1082-1089.
  • LEE, J., STRAZICICH, M.C. (2004). Minimum LM Unit Root Test with One Structural Break. Appalachian State University Working Papers, no.04-17, pp.1- 15.
  • LIBANIO, G.A. (2005). Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series: Theory, Implications, and Evidence. Nova Economia, vol. 15, no. 3, pp.145-176.
  • LUMSDAINE, R.L., PAPELL, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 79, no.2, pp.212- 218.
  • PAZARLIOĞLU, M. V., ÇEVIK, E.İ. (2007). Ratchet Model: 1939-2005 Dönemi Türkiye Uygulaması. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, cilt 9, sayı 1, 17-34.ss.
  • PAZARLIOĞLU, M. V., ÇEVIK, E.İ. (2005). Ratchet Model Uygulaması: Türkiye Örneği. VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul.
  • PERRON, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, vol. 57, no. 6, pp.1361-1401.
  • PERRON, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 80, no. 2, pp.355-385.
  • PHELPS, E.S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time, Economica, vol. 34, no. 3, pp.254–81.
  • PHELPS, E.S. (1968). Money-wage Dynamics and Labor-market Equilibrium, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 76, no. 4, pp. 678–711.
  • PHELPS, E. (1994). Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
  • ROMERO-AVILA, D., USABIAGA C. (2007). Unit Root Tests and Persistence of Unemployment: Spain vs. the United States. Applied Economics Letters, vol. 14, no.6, pp.457-461.
  • SCHMIDT P., PHILLIPS, P.C.B. (1992). LM Tests for a Unit Root in the Presence of Deterministic Trends. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 54, no. 3, pp.257-287.
  • SESSIONS, J.G. (1994). Unemployment Stigma and Multiple Labour Market Equilibria: A Social-Psychological Explanation of Hysteresis. Labour, vol. 8, no. 3, pp.355-375.
  • TÜİK (2007). İstatistik Göstergeler 1923-2006, Ankara, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu.
  • TÜİK (2008). Hanehalkı İşgücü Araştırması 2007 Yıllık Sonuçları. Haber Bülteni, sayı 36, 1-3.ss.
  • ZIVOT, E., ANDREWS, D. (1992). Further Evidence On The Great Crash, The Oil- Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 10, no. 3, pp.251-270.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Veli Yılancı This is me

Publication Date July 1, 2009
Published in Issue Year 2009 Volume: 10 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Yılancı, V. (2009). YAPISAL KIRILMALAR ALTINDA TÜRKİYE İÇİN İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİNİN SINANMASI. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2), 324-335.