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KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE ULUSLARARASI TİCARETİN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ

Year 2022, Volume: 23 Issue: 1, 299 - 313, 28.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1010276

Abstract

Çalışmada, kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde uluslararası ticaret ve finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki uzun ve kısa vadeli etkilerinin ve değişkenler arasındaki nedenselliğin yönünün belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. İlk aşamada, heterojen panel ARDL yöntemi ile uzun vadeli eşbütünleşme ilişkisi modellenmiş, ikinci aşamada, heterojen panel nedensellik testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın ampirik bulguları şunlardır: i. kırılgan beşli ekonomilerinde uluslararası ticaretin ve ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde uzun vadede güçlü pozitif etkileri kabul edilirken, kısa vadeli etkileri ise geçersiz bulunmaktadır, ii. finansal gelişmenin büyüme üzerindeki uzun vadeli etkisi beklenenin aksine negatiftir, kısa vadede ise kısmi ve düşük bir pozitif etki söylenebilmektedir, iii. uluslararası ticaretin pozitif etkisi, finansal gelişmenin negatif etkisini baskılamaktadır, iv. panel ARDL bulguları ile de uyumlu olarak, finansal gelişmeden ve uluslararası ticaretten ekonomik büyümeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik sadece %10 düzeyinde kabul edilebilmekte, uluslararası ticaretten finansal gelişmeye doğru ise tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi dikkat çekmektedir. Çalışmanın bu bulguları, kırılgan beşli ekonomilerinde ticaretin uzun dönemli pozitif etkilerini ortaya koyarken, finansal gelişmenin pozitif etkilerinin sağlanabilmesine yönelik politikalara daha çok ağırlık verilmesi gerekliliğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Supporting Institution

Avrasya Ekonomileri Konferansı

References

  • Aghion, P., Howitt, P., ve Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173–222.
  • Al Yousif , Y. K. (1997). Exports and economic growth: Some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries. Applied Economics, 29(1), 693-697.
  • Alom, K. (2018). Financial development and economic growth dynamics in South Asian region. The Journal of Developing Areas, 52(4), 47-66.
  • Awokuse , T. (2011). Trade openness and economic growth: Is growth export-led or import-led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: An empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6(9), 557-561.
  • Bildirici , M. E. (2014). Relationship between biomass energy and economic growth in transition countries: Panel ARDL approach. GCB Bioenergy, 6(1), 717-726.
  • Bouzid, A. (2012). McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: Empirical evidence for the Arab Maghrebean countries. The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(44), 23-36.
  • Calderon , C., ve Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334.
  • Cave , J., Chaudhuri, K., ve Kumbhakar, S. (2020). Do banking sector and stock market development matter for economic growth? Empirical Economics, 59(1), 1513-1535.
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2019). Dependence of the “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty. Research in International Business and Finance, 49(1), 251-268.
  • Chen, C., Pour, G., ve de los Reyes, E. (2020). Financial development and economic growth in Asian countries: A panel empirical investigation. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 6(2), 76-84.
  • Dar, A. ve Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003). On the impact of trade openness on growth: further evidence from OECD countries, Applied Economics, 35(16), 1761-1766.
  • Deidda, L. G. (2006). Interaction between economic and financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(2), 233-248.
  • Dowrick, S. ve Golley, J. (2004). Trade openness and growth: who benefits?, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 38-56.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I., ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir , M. S., ve Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306.
  • Frankel, J.A., Romer D. (1999). Does trade cause growth?, The American Economic Review 89(3), 379-399
  • Gurley , J., ve Shaw , E. S. (1967). Financial structure and economic development. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(3), 257-270.
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2015). Kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(1), 131-144.
  • Henriques , I., ve Sadorsky , P. (1996). Export-led growth or growth driven exports? the Canadian case. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(3), 540-555.
  • Jung, W. S. (1986). Financial development and economic growth: ınternational evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 333-346.
  • King , R. G., ve Levine , R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics,, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Kravis, I. (1970). Trade as a handmaiden of growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-872.
  • Kumar, K., ve Paramanik, R. (2020). Nexus between Indian economic growth and financial development: a non-linear ARDL approach. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(6), 109-116.
  • Levine , R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.
  • Levine , R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. P. Aghion, ve S. Durlauf içinde, Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(A), s. 865-934.
  • Matei, I. (2020). Is financial development good for economic growth? Empirical insights from emerging European countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(4), 653–678.
  • McKinnon , R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington D.C.: Brookings Press.
  • Moyo, C., Khobai, H., Kolisi, N., ve Mbeki, Z. (2018). Financial development and economic growth in Brazil: a non-linear ARDL approach. MPRA Paper (85252), 1-28.
  • Orji , A., Ogbuabor, J., ve Orji, O. (2015). Financial liberalization and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical evidence. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 663-672.
  • Patrick, H. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189.
  • Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified ols for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity . Bloomongton Indiana University working paper in economics. 96-020
  • Pesaran , M. H., ve Smith , R. P. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634.
  • Raheem, I., Tiwari, A., ve Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2020). The role of ICT and financial development in CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(1), 1912–1922.
  • Richards , D. (2001). Exports as a determinant of long-run growth in Paraguay, 1966-1996. Journal of Development Stdies, 38(1), 128-146.
  • Riezman , R., Peter , M., ve C. , H. Whiteman. (1995). The engine of growth or its handmaiden? A time- series assessment of export-led growth. Empirical Economics,, 21(1), 77-100.
  • Sabandi, M., ve Noviani, L. (2015). The effects of trade liberalization, financial development and economic crisis on economic growth in Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(24), 120-128.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Shaw , E. S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. NewYork: Oxford University Press.
  • Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalization, stock markets and economic development. Economic Journal, 107(442), 771-782
  • Svirydzenka , K. (2016). Introducing a new broad-based ındex of financial development. IMF Working Paper, 1-42.
  • Tarıq, R., Khan, M., ve Rahman , A. (2020). How does financial development impact economic growth in Pakistan?:New evidence from threshold model. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(8), 161–173.
  • Valickova, P., Havranek, T., ve Horvath, R. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: A meta-analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(3), 506–526.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (2. b.). İstanbul, Türkiye: Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım.

THE EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES: PANEL ARDL ANALYSIS

Year 2022, Volume: 23 Issue: 1, 299 - 313, 28.01.2022
https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1010276

Abstract

The study aims at the determination of the long and short-run effects of international trade and financial development on economic growth, along with the causality relationships among the variables in the fragile five economies. The country group was analyzed in the first stage by the panel ARDL method to determine cointegration among the variables within a heterogeneous panel, followed by the heterogeneous causality testing in the second stage. The following empirical findings are obtained: i. the effects of international trade and openness to trade on economic growth in the long-run are relatively strong and positive, though the short-run effects cannot be accepted, ii. the long run effect of financial development on growth is unexpectedly negative, though a limited positive effect could only be accepted in the short-run, iii.the positive effects of international trade dominates the negative effects of financial development, iv.the direction of causalities are in line with the panel ARDL findings, uni-directional causalities could only be accepted at 10% significance level from financial development and from international trade to economic growth, however the causal effect from trade to financial development cannot be disregarded. These findings favor the positive effects of the international trade on economic growth in the fragile five economies, however, the policies had been limited so far in achieving positive effects of financial development on economic growth.

References

  • Aghion, P., Howitt, P., ve Mayer-Foulkes, D. (2005). The effect of financial development on convergence: Theory and evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(1), 173–222.
  • Al Yousif , Y. K. (1997). Exports and economic growth: Some empirical evidence from the Arab Gulf countries. Applied Economics, 29(1), 693-697.
  • Alom, K. (2018). Financial development and economic growth dynamics in South Asian region. The Journal of Developing Areas, 52(4), 47-66.
  • Awokuse , T. (2011). Trade openness and economic growth: Is growth export-led or import-led? Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., ve Niroomand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: An empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6(9), 557-561.
  • Bildirici , M. E. (2014). Relationship between biomass energy and economic growth in transition countries: Panel ARDL approach. GCB Bioenergy, 6(1), 717-726.
  • Bouzid, A. (2012). McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis: Empirical evidence for the Arab Maghrebean countries. The Romanian Economic Journal, 15(44), 23-36.
  • Calderon , C., ve Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72(1), 321-334.
  • Cave , J., Chaudhuri, K., ve Kumbhakar, S. (2020). Do banking sector and stock market development matter for economic growth? Empirical Economics, 59(1), 1513-1535.
  • Chadwick, M. G. (2019). Dependence of the “Fragile Five” and “Troubled Ten” emerging market financial systems on US monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainty. Research in International Business and Finance, 49(1), 251-268.
  • Chen, C., Pour, G., ve de los Reyes, E. (2020). Financial development and economic growth in Asian countries: A panel empirical investigation. International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, 6(2), 76-84.
  • Dar, A. ve Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003). On the impact of trade openness on growth: further evidence from OECD countries, Applied Economics, 35(16), 1761-1766.
  • Deidda, L. G. (2006). Interaction between economic and financial development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 53(2), 233-248.
  • Dowrick, S. ve Golley, J. (2004). Trade openness and growth: who benefits?, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 38-56.
  • Dumitrescu, E. I., ve Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
  • Durusu-Ciftci, D., Ispir , M. S., ve Yetkiner, H. (2017). Financial development and economic growth: Some theory and more evidence. Journal of Policy Modeling, 39(2), 290-306.
  • Frankel, J.A., Romer D. (1999). Does trade cause growth?, The American Economic Review 89(3), 379-399
  • Gurley , J., ve Shaw , E. S. (1967). Financial structure and economic development. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 15(3), 257-270.
  • Hayaloğlu, P. (2015). Kırılgan beşli ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Dinamik panel veri analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(1), 131-144.
  • Henriques , I., ve Sadorsky , P. (1996). Export-led growth or growth driven exports? the Canadian case. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 29(3), 540-555.
  • Jung, W. S. (1986). Financial development and economic growth: ınternational evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(2), 333-346.
  • King , R. G., ve Levine , R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. Quarterly Journal of Economics,, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Kravis, I. (1970). Trade as a handmaiden of growth: Similarities between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The Economic Journal, 80(320), 850-872.
  • Kumar, K., ve Paramanik, R. (2020). Nexus between Indian economic growth and financial development: a non-linear ARDL approach. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(6), 109-116.
  • Levine , R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2), 688–726.
  • Levine , R. (2005). Finance and growth: theory and evidence. P. Aghion, ve S. Durlauf içinde, Handbook of Economic Growth, 1(A), s. 865-934.
  • Matei, I. (2020). Is financial development good for economic growth? Empirical insights from emerging European countries. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(4), 653–678.
  • McKinnon , R. I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington D.C.: Brookings Press.
  • Moyo, C., Khobai, H., Kolisi, N., ve Mbeki, Z. (2018). Financial development and economic growth in Brazil: a non-linear ARDL approach. MPRA Paper (85252), 1-28.
  • Orji , A., Ogbuabor, J., ve Orji, O. (2015). Financial liberalization and economic growth in Nigeria: An empirical evidence. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(3), 663-672.
  • Patrick, H. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174–189.
  • Pedroni, P. (1996). Fully modified ols for heterogeneous cointegrated panels and the case of purchasing power parity . Bloomongton Indiana University working paper in economics. 96-020
  • Pesaran , M. H., ve Smith , R. P. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113.
  • Pesaran, M., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621–634.
  • Raheem, I., Tiwari, A., ve Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2020). The role of ICT and financial development in CO2 emissions and economic growth. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(1), 1912–1922.
  • Richards , D. (2001). Exports as a determinant of long-run growth in Paraguay, 1966-1996. Journal of Development Stdies, 38(1), 128-146.
  • Riezman , R., Peter , M., ve C. , H. Whiteman. (1995). The engine of growth or its handmaiden? A time- series assessment of export-led growth. Empirical Economics,, 21(1), 77-100.
  • Sabandi, M., ve Noviani, L. (2015). The effects of trade liberalization, financial development and economic crisis on economic growth in Indonesia. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(24), 120-128.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Shaw , E. S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. NewYork: Oxford University Press.
  • Singh, A. (1997). Financial liberalization, stock markets and economic development. Economic Journal, 107(442), 771-782
  • Svirydzenka , K. (2016). Introducing a new broad-based ındex of financial development. IMF Working Paper, 1-42.
  • Tarıq, R., Khan, M., ve Rahman , A. (2020). How does financial development impact economic growth in Pakistan?:New evidence from threshold model. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(8), 161–173.
  • Valickova, P., Havranek, T., ve Horvath, R. (2014). Financial development and economic growth: A meta-analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29(3), 506–526.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (2. b.). İstanbul, Türkiye: Beta Basım Yayım Dağıtım.
There are 45 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Özgür Ömer Ersin 0000-0002-9177-2780

Ali Talih Süt 0000-0001-8879-3196

Publication Date January 28, 2022
Submission Date October 15, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 23 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ersin, Ö. Ö., & Süt, A. T. (2022). KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞME VE ULUSLARARASI TİCARETİN BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: PANEL ARDL ANALİZİ. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 23(1), 299-313. https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1010276