EMPLOYMENT INTENSITY FOR THE MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE SECTORS IN TURKEY

Year 2023, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 81 - 105, 10.07.2023

İsmail Tuncer , Nuran Coşkun , Kenan Lopcu

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1196853

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between employment intensity and growth in Turkey’s manufacturing and service sectors via taking into consideration the Eurostat technology classification for the period between 2003 and 2015. Relying on a - Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function, employment demand functions are estimated for different manufacturing sub sectors with different technology levels and service sectors with different information content. The results reveal that real wages are the main determinant of employment demand with a negative coefficient, in line with the related literature. Employment elasticities of output have been positive and statistically significant, except for the medium-low (ML) technology sub sectors. Manufacturing sub sectors has relatively low and insignificant coefficients which could be considered as a weak sign of jobless growth. The interest rate seems to be negative and statistically significant. On the other hand, we did not find any significant relationship between inflation (inf) and employment demand except for less knowledge-based service (LKIS) sectors.

Keywords

Employment Intensity, Economic Growth, Jobless Growth.

TÜRKİYE’DE İMALAT VE HİZMET SEKTÖRLERİNDE İSTİHDAM ESNEKLİĞİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’nin sanayi ve hizmet sektörlerinde büyüme ve istihdam talebi arasındaki ilişkiyi Euro-stat teknoloji içeriği sınıflamasını dikkate alarak 2003-2015 dönemi için incelemektir. Sabit İkame Esnekliğine (CES) sahip bir üretim fonksiyonundan hareketle farklı teknoloji seviyesine sahip imalat ve farklı bilgi içeriğine sahip hizmet sektörleri için emek talep fonksiyonlarını tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, reel ücretin katsayısının beklendiği gibi negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olup, reel ücret emek talebinin en önemli belirleyicisi olarak bulunmuştur. İstihdam çıktı esnekliği istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif katsayıya sahiptir. Orta düşük teknolojili imalat sektörlerinde ise görece düşük katsayıya sahip olup, anlamsız bulunması bu sektörlerde istihdamsız büyüme olabileceğine dair zayıf bir işaret olarak değerlendirilebilir. Faiz istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve istihdam talebi üzerine negatif etki etmektedir. Diğer yandan, düşük bilgi içerikli hizmet sektör grubu hariç enflasyon katsayıları anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Keywords

İstihdam Yoğunluğu, İktisadi Büyüme, İstihdamsız Büyüme

References

• Abidioğlu, Z. and Albayrak, N. (2017). İstihdam yaratmayan büyüme: Alt sektörler bazında bir araştırma. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(13), 215-228.
• Ajilore, T. and Yinusa, O. (2011). An analysis of employment intensity of sectoral output growth in Botswana. Southern African Business Review, 15(2), 26-42.
• Ali, A. A., Ghazi T. and Msadfa, Y. (2017). Manufacturing employment elasticity and its Drivers in Developing and Emerging Countries: Focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. Center for the New South, 17(03), 1-36.
• Altuntepe, N. and Güner, T. (2013). Türkiye'de istihdam-büyüme ilişkisinin analizi (1988-2011). Uluslararası Alanya İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 5(1).
• Altuntepe, N. (2022). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümenin istihdam esnekliği (2010-2020). Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19 (1), 233-247.
• Arrow, K., H. Chenery, B. S. Minhas, and R. Solow (1961). Capital-Labor substitution and economic efficiency. Review of Economics and Statistics, 43(3), 225-250.
• Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004). A PANIC attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1177.
• Basu, D. and Foley, D. K. (2011). dynamics of output and employment in the U.S. economy. UMASS Proceedings of the Amherst Economics, 2011(03), 1-36.
• Basu, D. and Foley, D. K. (2013). Dynamics of output and employment in the U.S. economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(5), 1077-1106.
• Bhorat, H., & Oosthuizen, M. (2008). Human resources development review 2008. Kraak, A. & Press, K. (Ed.), In Employment shifts and the'jobless growth'debate (50-69, pp.). HSRC Press. https://doi.org/10.7275/3317864
• Bhat, J. A., ul Haq, I., Bhat, S. A., & Megits, N. (2022). Employment elasticity of output growth in Kazakhstan economy: Recent evidence from a macroeconomic perspective. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 9(2), 369-384.
• Eberhardt, M. (2012). Estimating Panel Time-series models with heterogeneous slopes. Stata Journal, 12(1), 61.
• Eberhardt, M., and F. Teal. 2010. Productivity analysis in global manufacturing production. Proceedings of the University of Oxford: Department of economics discussion paper series, USA, 515(1), 1-32. http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/research/WP/pdf/paper515.pdf
• Eberhardt, M., and S. Bond. (2009). Cross-Section dependence in nonstationary panel models: a novel estimator. Proceedings of the MPRA Paper, Germany, 17692(1), 1-26. http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/17692/1/MPRA paper 17692.pdf.
• Kapsos, S. (2006). The employment intensity of growth: Trends and macroeconomic determinants. In Labor Markets in Asia (pp. 143-201). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Mazumdar, D. (2005). The employment elasticity in manufacturing: A rejoinder. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 29(4), 665-667.
• Mazumdar, D. and Sarkar, S. (2004). Reforms and employment elasticity in organised manufacturing. Economic and Political Weekly, 3017-3029.
• Mkhize, N. (2019). The sectoral employment intensity of growth in South Africa. Economic Research in South Africa working paper, 23(1).
• Murat, S. and Yılmaz-Eser, B. (2013). Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeve istihdam ilişkisi: istihdam yaratmayan büyüme olgusunun geçerliliği. Hak İş Uluslararası Emekve Toplum Dergisi, 2(3), 92-123.
• Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Proceeding of Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435(1), 1-35.
• Pesaran, M. H. and Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Slimane, S. B. (2015). The relationship between growth and employment intensity: evidence for developing countries. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 5(4), 680-692.
• Songur, M. (2015). Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için sabit ikame esneklikli üretim fonksiyonunun tahmini. Proceeding of In EY International Congress on Economics II, 5(6), 1-14.
• Songur, M. and Saraç, F. E. (2017). Cobb-Douglas, CES, VES ve Translog üretim fonksiyonlarının tahminleri üzerine genel bir değerlendirme. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2(3), 235-278.
• Tarı Özgür, M. (2022). Çanakkale’de ekonomik büyümenin istihdam esnekliği (2010-2020). Lâpseki Meslek Yüksekokulu Uygulamalı Araştırmalar Dergisi, 3 (6), 15-24.
• Tuncer, İ. and Altıok, M. (2012). Türkiye imalat sanayinde büyüme ve büyümenin istihdam yoğunluğu: 1980-2008 dönemi. Çalışma İlişkileri Dergisi, 3(1), 1-22.
• Turkish Republic Central Bank (2019). Commercial interest rates (TL). Access link: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/dashboard/341
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), (2019). Inflation and price. Access link: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=kategorist
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), (2019). Annual industry and service statistics (NACE Rev.2). Access link: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=kategorist
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), (2019). National accounts. Access link: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=kategorist
• Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI), (2019). Employment, unemployment and wages. Access link: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=kategorist
• Upender, M. (2006). Output elasticity of employment in the Indian economy: An empirical note. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 6(1), 197-206.
• Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
• Westerlund, J. and Edgerton, D. L. (2008). A simple test for cointegration in dependent panels with structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 70(5), 665-704.